Aditya Birla Capital a Long term secular growth story

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by kharb, Sep 7, 2017.

  1. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    Stock was definitely highly Over Priced at the time of listing at 250 but below or around 200 it can be accumulated but only if there is plan to average if it go down further.I did enter in morning ,this was highest amount by me invested in a single day (aprox 2% of my portfolio)and plan to add more at lower level . This is going to be a long term portfolio stock for me.This is high price to be paid and may have to leave some appreciation of initial period but can give 15%CAGR or market beating returns in long term and fits my criteria .This is no recommendation to buy(As I am not an expert) but is my view for discussion in this forum.
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2017
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  2. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

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    Excellent stock pick. Stock is blue chip stock. It will shoot up like L&T Finance :)
     
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  3. Ravikumar

    Ravikumar Active Member

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    Good pick...I too entered today in small quantities....
     
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  4. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    It seems price discovery is coming to end ;it may face resistance to cross 250 for some time as many investers may have been traped between 225 to250 and some of them may be waiting for exit.But long term investers should do scatred buying to avg out buying price.I expect market beating returns in long run .I have this stock in my portfolio .No recommendation to buy ;just for discussion.
     
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  5. wild_hipman

    wild_hipman Active Member

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    Thankfully I did not get carried away by all the initial jazz around the stock. No need for me to average out nor become a forced long term investor (forced) just because of a high holding cost.
     
  6. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    @ Kharb ji
    what is the present EPS of AB Capital stock ? .... what is the Debt position ?
    any information ?
     
  7. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    As per valueresearch its EPS as on 31 March was 5.6.Debt for financial compnies is like raw material ,so book value is considered relevant ,its stand alone book is around 25 and consolidated book value may be higher.Any way it is over priced stock and fair value seems to be 170 but I don't feel it will go down below 180 unless market itself corrects .I am invested only for long term fully knowing it may not give returns for next two years but is a very good longer term story and is a retirement stock for me .I have already entred in a period of five years before retirement ,so would be investing in this and few insurance companies stocks which are also over priced but are good longer term retirement stocks.
     
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  8. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    My brother is working in AB Capital mumbai , company given 40000 shares to him in employees stock scheme
    2000 shares at Rs. 10 .... and remaining 38000 shares at 120 Rs. those stocks are locking period 2022
     
  9. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    If AB Capital EPS 5.6 STOCK PE Ratio is at 34.8

    in my view it is very expensive , so i want to wait until corrected stock price
    or it is better reliance capital buy at dips to me in financial sector ...
     
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  10. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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  11. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    @Shakti ji

    my view is Reliance capital valuations are reasonable than AB Capital
    in NBFC sector is not in fair valuation , and market is also costly , so we have to select low PE Ratio is better

    In my view AB Capital below Rs. 150 is better to start accumulating at that level based on EPS 5.6

    but i think your selection Relcapital is best in this sector
    De merger always give clean focus on business improvement .. so congratulations for Housing shares bonus ...

    i always invest banks or financial service companies stocks low PE ratio and sales growth combination always

    you think you are learner always , it reflects your obedience and learning interest in stock market sir , i think you are very experienced Investor with good skills sir

    ALL THE BEST SIR
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2017
  12. wild_hipman

    wild_hipman Active Member

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    @RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    when do you expect AB Capital to hit 150 levels?

    The best in the sector RelCap cracks over 20% in this last one week. if best in class destroys wealth to this extent can you throw some light how other stocks from this sector have fared?

    Wonder what the proponents of this stock have to say about the Relcap ride this month - a high of 880 and a low of 590 or will they again choose to disappear when its inconvenient and post only when it suits them.
     
  13. wild_hipman

    wild_hipman Active Member

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    @shakti khanduri

    I have a strong dislike for Reliance Cap and everything that ADAG stands for. this is a good enough reason for me to consider AB Capital over Rel Cap. I do not believe AB Cap is likely to touch 150 and current levels of 180 do capture the erosion of the earlier rich valuations.

    I have however gone in for HUDCO. Might buy some AB Cap. Not decided yet
     
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  14. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    earlier i am expecting correction in market in my charts i also posted , NBFC stocks are not in my priority stocks , but for employees stock option AB Capital alloted each share Rs. 125 , so it is a good price for long term investors ....

    if i am not satisfied i will discord those NBFC stocks ....
    mostly i want to get advantage of trading in my favorite stocks , rather than Investing
    for investing it is very costly market , in my view this is only give Trading advantage market

    in correction i want to buy karnataka bank and GMDC only , AB Capital or Relcapital i will look some more quarterly results also and i always follow chart anaysis , actually i will not attached to any stock in my mind ...
    Basically i am a Trader , specially i will not focus on investment , some of my trading profit will convert in to investment , if market corrected drastically i will by some selected shares with my 25 % of my capital
    remaining 75 % of the capital is only for Trading ....
     
  15. wild_hipman

    wild_hipman Active Member

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    Well I suppose Employee stock options are available to employees and is part of their compensation - more in the nature of bonus and used as employee retention tool. Rs125/- stock options is not reflective of true value of the company as this exercise price serves the purposes I have stated above - unless you believe that 125/- is also the fair value of AB Cap. If so, happy to hear your rationale for this - for certainly stock option exercise price does not usually capture true value
     
  16. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    basically AB Capital 's details are not clear except EPS 5.6
    and technically i can study with at least 6 months chart
    and my assumption Rs. 125 may not correct ...for that matter
    Fair value calculations in the world are deferent and not proved with accuracy also
    so dont take as it is , who knows about AB Capital , it is a days baby
    how can any body say about color of baby
    in my priority Aditya Birla group stocks are not in my portfolio
     
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