Fundamental Analysis of much Talked About Stocks...

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by yembee, Nov 18, 2015.

  1. yembee

    yembee Active Member

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    Hi Friends
    First disclaimer : I am not a wizard ...

    The aim of this thread is to Analyse the Stocks which are being talked in our Forum. Their Fair value and One year Target Price based on their current and past performance...

    Investing is not a science that we can use some magic formulae and win big... It involves valuation, Technical Entry Levels, General Market condition etc which makes it more of an art...

    Modus Operandi

    1.10 years Annual results and corresponding stock price
    2.Calculate Average PE based on last three/four years
    3.Extrapolate the Sales growth to next two more years and apply last three years average percentage of profit.
    4. Calculate Expected EPS and multiply with Average PE will give the Stocks fair price and one year Target.

    What do you say...
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2015
    Srouta Mukherjee likes this.
  2. yembee

    yembee Active Member

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    1. Astra Microwave Products Ltd

    A very good growth company.

    Oscar Capital says : Astra Microwave is one of those rare bets that fits both our Top-Down (Huge Opportunity Size, Accelerating Growth, Structural drivers) and Bottom-Up (Good Management, Prudent Capital Allocation, Healthy Return Ratios, Durable Moats, Reasonable Valuations) investment criteria.

    My Analysis says : Some worries with Astra Trailing four Q results are not V.Good even though Company has good consistent profit growth of 53.51% over 5 years.
    capture3.jpg
     
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  3. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

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    Superb analysis! But if target price is Rs. 267 stock is great buy at present price of Rs. 145. Stock is up 6.79% today in bad market. What is reason for bad Q results? Is it temporary issue? As per your analysis what is target price?
     
  4. ANITHA

    ANITHA New Member

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    Profit growth is highly fluctuating with both upward and downward spikes.
     
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  5. yembee

    yembee Active Member

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    Srouta Ji Thats why I said Investment is an Art. The extrapolation throws nos like that. After 2016 annual results there may be correction... But in the long run It should do good.

    Agreed Anitha ji
     
  6. yembee

    yembee Active Member

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    2.TECHNOCRAFT INDUSTRIES (INDIA) LTD

    • 40 year old company in diversified feilds... presence in 10 counties and exporting to 80 Countries
    • TIIL is the second largest global manufacturer of Steel Drum Closures including Tite Seal Flanges & Plugs, Tite Seal Gaskets, Tite Seal Leak Locks Plugs, Octagon base Drum Flanges & Auto Closure Systems.
    • Technocraft successfully manufactures & supplies high quality Scaffolding System
    • It is internationally renowned for premium quality yarn.
    • Technosoft Engineering (TE) was established in 1999 and it provides engineering design services to various engineering / manufacturing companies.
    FA looks Good TA looks Good too TIIL Sep15.jpg
     
  7. Vin Bag

    Vin Bag New Member

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    Yembee, the analysis screen shot you have given, is it from some software or website?
     
  8. yembee

    yembee Active Member

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    Vin Bag ji It is an access database stencil linked to Excel data..
     
  9. Vin Bag

    Vin Bag New Member

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    Nice, You have made it yourself?

    I have been trying to get past 10 years data in excel format for various companies, where can I find it?
     
  10. yembee

    yembee Active Member

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  11. Farhan Ghumra

    Farhan Ghumra Active Member

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    Can you please share the stencil template so we members can use it? Data is available publicly we cab use it in your stencil.
     
  12. yembee

    yembee Active Member

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    Farhan Ji

    It will be my pleasure to share the stencil with any of our members... It has many external file references. I will internalize and make as one file and the share give me one week. If any one interested who knows access give ur email I can send... Even guide you... If not able to use Mention the stock u are interested I can analyse and post Fair price and One year target along with the screen shot....
     
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  13. Farhan Ghumra

    Farhan Ghumra Active Member

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    I will personally send you my email address and thanks a lot for sharing. You can take your time to prepare it. I know Microsoft access i am from IT background. I just begun stock investment so don't have any scrip to check its future. My portfolio includes icici bank, ongc, tci and tata elxsi.
     
  14. yembee

    yembee Active Member

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    3.Hexaware Technologies Ltd

    - Company is virtually debt free.

    - Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 3.74%.

    - Promoter's stake has increased

    - Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 29.04%

    - Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 75.71%

    Annual Result in Dec : Expected to give a Very Good Result Hexaware Sep15.jpg

     
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  15. BombayBoy

    BombayBoy Well-Known Member

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    @yembee can you look up KPIT for me?
    thanks in advance!
     
  16. yembee

    yembee Active Member

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    Hi MubaiBoy (Politically Correct )
    KPIT looks good available below its fair price capture12.jpg
     
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  17. New_Investor

    New_Investor Active Member

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    What is your view on Elantas Beck (BSE : 500123), Tata Chemicals (BSE : 500770), L&T (BSE : 500510) and Gujarat Fluorochemicals (BSE : 500173)
     
  18. yembee

    yembee Active Member

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    New Investor Ji
    1.Elantas Beck (BSE : 500123)
    A debt Free company expected to declare Annual EPS @ 55 in Dec But Well Valued not much upside soon

    My Policy is not to buy if the PEG is above 1


    capture9.jpg
     
  19. New_Investor

    New_Investor Active Member

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    Thank you. Thank you very much
     
  20. msatyana

    msatyana New Member

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    Following are the fundamentals of Ashok Alco Chemicals Ltd. Would like to get your comments.
    Thanks.
    ASHOK ALCO CHEMICALS LTD.

    AACL Products:

    Chemical Design

    Manufacturing of Ethyl Acetate; Glacial Acetic Acid; Acetaldehyde

    Ceramic Material Divisions

    Ball Clay; Quartz;Feldspar (the products being used in varied industries)

    Global Trading Division

    Core Minerals (Bauxite & Bentonite Exporter)

    FINANCIALS:

    CMP

    Rs. 128.50

    52 Week Low/High

    49/208

    Market Cap

    Rs. 59.11 Cr.

    Current P/E ratio

    3.88

    Current D/E ratio

    0.03

    Total Debt reduced from 30 Cr to 1.14Cr.

    Latest ROCE%

    66.05

    Five years Average

    45%

    Latest RONW%

    43.57

    Five years Average

    50%

    Latest Interest Coverage

    29.76

    Tax% payout

    from 2012 steadily increasing from 23% to 34% (earlier there was no consistency)

    Sales growth

    Last five years sales growth is not in study trend but there are signs of improvement.
    However NPM has increased from 0.62 to 4.44
    Observations:

    Positives

    Excellent average of ROCE and RONW - Far better than peers in the industry.

    Sustained growth of Sales and Net profits from 2011 and excellent results in 2014 and current quarter

    Very low Debt Equity ratio

    Low requirement of Working capital

    Continuous improvement in EPS from the year 2011. Latest EPS around (Expected) : Rs. 35

    Total Management change in 2011 - augurs will for the Company - showed all positive signs in every front.

    Shareholding of promoters 54.79% with zero encumbrance

    Negatives

    The dividend is declared only once during 2015 @ 10%. Earlier years Management was very conservative

    Snippets from Annual Reports:

    Till 2011 the lack luster performance was attributed to down turn in Indian Economy and lack of good demand for its products.

    Though the sales were low the NP was in increase through sustained measures to improve the margins

    Latest AR indicates there was 151 lacs capital expenditure to setup in-house R&D center to innovate new products

    Largescale automation and recovery processes resulted in excellent results

    The capex of 250 cr. Through internal accruals - to install new Boiler to improve operational efficiencies.

    An increase in share capital by 5,50,000 shares at 10/- issued against warrants issued at a premium of Rs. 20/-

    Concerns

    No information about Management

    No clarity on future growth (top line)

    Industry prospects not known (with specific reference to the Ashok Alco Chemicals products)
     
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