Heads up on coming crisis in late 2019

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by sandhu, Sep 27, 2018.

  1. sandhu

    sandhu New Member

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    I am writing from a US centered perspective but with an interest in Indian markets. US Fed is going to raise rates around 4-5 times from now toward end of next year. This, along with the quantitative tightening by the Fed, will pull lots of capital out of emerging markets. Lots of money from the US had flooded into emerging markets in search of yield in the last ten years. There are estimates of it being at least around 9 trillion dollars. As the interest rates rise in the US this money is going back into US dollars. Indian local flows are not enough to hold the market up. I believe that Indian market will crash in the near future. US will have a recession beginning toward the second half of next year. US will crash as well. The Fed and the Wall Street behind it--with their global investments around the world--will deliver a US recession in the lead up to Trump reelection in 2020 as they want to make sure that Trump does not succeed in coming back next time.

    I have gone largely into cash and debt. Will invest when the market is down 40-50% down.
     
  2. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    present US financial position is good it is showing good progress ...

    all global funds selling some stock positions in EMs
    and convert to dollars and bring back to US is positive for US
    trade deficit also reducing down is another positive

    but indian market is now facing negative
    due to From November onwards Iran issue
    and mainly NBFCs LC is another biggest issue
    MF s are hugely invested in NBFC is another negative
    now in my view redemption presser faced by MF Industry
    crude is also 81.5 dollars
    dollar and rupee reached 72 rs.
    and next year 2019 election is another issue

    so in my view all negative points , so cash is king at this stage
    and portfolio and risk management is vital for all

    all the best
     
  3. Victor

    Victor New Member

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    @RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA
    Nice to be back to this site after a very long time.
    We are in Wave 4 of Wave 5 from 2009 lows imho. Nifty target 9300-9800 for bottom of this correction. We should start preparing shopping list for the last leg of Bull run after this correction.
    Regards,
    Victor
     
  4. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    @ Dear Victor ji ,

    in my view market is showing weakness because 200 DMA 10755 BROKEN yesterday
    in my own analysis market get good support between 9900 - 10300 levels in near future
    below 9900 closing Bears are gain complete grip on Bulls

    in my view , if market crash i think bottom may be at 8800 - 9000 levels

    i think every high selling pressure is possible ,

    so my suggestions are

    1. Maintain some cash position always
    2. Stick on with Quality stocks
    3. concentrated portfolio is good at this time ( above 10 stocks and below 25 stocks is better)
    4. in portfolio maintain some stocks in Defensive sectors like " Pharma & FMCG "
    5. Dont Invest more than 6 - 7 % (approx) in any single stock
    6.Dont Invest more than 15 % (Approx) in any Sector in your portfolio
    7. Money Management , Risk Management & Portfolio Management is Vital
    8.Dont Follow any Tips , Do your own Home work
    9. Make your own Investment or Trade Plan with Back Test
    10.Stick on to that Trade or Investment Plan dont change frequently
    11. In market fall Loss is inevitable , but we have to beat market growth is vital
    12. Dont change your Investment or Trading plan due to some failures
    13. Make mastery on single Strategy is vital for success it is Technical or Fundamental analysis
    (Elliatt Wave or Gann or candle sticks or Moving Averages,any thing you take Understanding and Application is vital for success )

    ALL THE BEST SIR
     
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