How to make money for all you dumbos..

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by Gaithonde, Dec 27, 2018.

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Who is interested in learning and making money?

  1. Yes I'm

    66.7%
  2. No I want to lose money in junk and try and make 10x in 2 years

    33.3%
  1. Gaithonde

    Gaithonde Member

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    Please refrain from clouding the thread with useless non sense and jibberish. I dont see you adding any value here. Please read my posts before commenting. Else just get lost and enjoy your underperformance. I have no issues with you. If you have any relevant questions regarding investing in companies through the public markets then feel free to ask.
     
  2. Jigyasoo

    Jigyasoo New Member

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    Thanks for your detail reply again...and all the cautionary advice to not following MMB bla bla...I only care about my own experience not of others and you should do the same...Only future will tell how every stock will perform till than we all fools are guessing only...and everyone think he/she is right, thats why he/she is putting his money on that...nothing new in that...
    As you say "Federal bank is a cyclical play on the NPA cycle" I will reanalyze it in the light of this input...Agree that asian paint is a bit costly. But for saying"Things like crude price fluctuations etc are meant for those stupid brokerages to give you sell calls." i have different opinion...I feel it is the biggest weighing factor of our economy so its fluctuations could not be treated as stocks fluctuation based on some news...you should have a careful eye and a personal opinion (future guess) on it...
    we all are here to make money not for getting any preaching from an enlighten soul....we all are dumb (including you) thats why we all are here...Let us share our views thats all...stop abusing others check your language...you are a rich person so use rich language...dont guess others and stop behaving like a kid who is desperate to tell his little knowledge (which he think is the complete) to every one...those who know they don't speak, those who speak they dont know....Lets make money together
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
  3. Gaithonde

    Gaithonde Member

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    Figgy,

    Look Im leaps and bounds ahead of you in terms of knowledge. YOu dont even know why you bought certain cos. Im here educating you and you are insulting me. I suggest that you watch your language.

    See, all paint cos asian, nerolac berger have shown stable margins at an operating level inspite of crude flying to highs and lows over the last decade. Crude has no long term impact on their margins. They can easily pass it on to customers. Same for a company like pidilite. You should note as well, that inspite of virtually no volume growth in cigarette sales and the govt slapping taxes on cigarettes ITC still managed to grow ebit from the cigarette business over last few years, that is the kind of pricing power that companies like these have. Asian paints included of course. Crude has an impact on our country's balance sheet not on the balance sheet of asian paints please understand. If you want to trade the macros then you must track crude. Crude prices may weigh on our economy I agree with you, but it does not weigh on the operating margins of asian paints. The stock price may react as that is out of anyones control. Ideally you should buy the dip instead of following the herd. Use common sense and invest.

    Take the 10 year operating margins of asian paints and then calculate the valuations. As of now they make above their 10 year operating margin avg and trade at peak valuations. So essentially you are looking at peak valuations at peak margins in a way. No one has ever succeeded in timing such companies. SIP is the best approach and over a year long period I would say. Over a period of 5-10 years I doubt the valuation entry for such a company will matter much. But there may be period of time correction and nil to negligible returns. Any other questions do feel free to ask..

    And no you arent a fool at life. Youre just an idiot when it comes to investing. I mean saying that federal bank is the next HDFC bank and then based on my comment reanalyzing it as a sort of cyclical. Banking is a cylcical space barring some banks. How you did not know this before investing is testament to your stupidity. I would still say invest in Mutual Funds for long periods of time and build your wealth. Focus on increasing your savings instead of studying stocks because you really are not doing anything great with your time and effort. If you put in such effort then atleast beat the average small and mid cap mutual funds over a 5-10 year period let alone the index.

    Feel free to ask me about any other ideas/themes/cos etc:
     
  4. Jigyasoo

    Jigyasoo New Member

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    Try harder....Tell something new...still waiting for the promised enlightenment :)
     
  5. Gaithonde

    Gaithonde Member

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    Jigyasa,
    I dont understand what you are trying to get at. I never promised anything. I will simply answer questions that are thrown at me. I wont respond if it is not a question regarding investing from now on. This being the last time. I personally think you should buy MFs. Do not put your family's wealth at risk due to your naivety. They have not done anything wrong to you. If you are stressed due to your losses in the market then in that case they too will be stressed let alone the fact that money is being lost. I urge you to consider your own well being and your familys well being. If you want to get into direct equties, by all means do so but do so with a small portion of your pf. Start learning more. Focus on learning that way you can take full advantage of the next bull run with a larger corpus. There are enough MFs and PMS funds for you to buy and grow your wealth.

    For heavens sake you have a 25% holding in federal bank and you did not even have a thesis. Your thesis was that they are the next HDFC bank. Even if the theme/stock does well you would not have exited at the right time because you would have thouught that its the next HDFC bank! You should be thankful that I drilled some sense into your head and now you are doing some more analysis on your heavily flawed initial thesis.

    Focus on studying and saving for a while and invest directly with a small amount. Then once you know more you can take full advantage of the future bull runs. It takes pretty much only one bull run to generate big wealth. If you do what you are doing, you may end up making measly returns and never learning. You may simply end up making nothing over the long run and leearning nothing too.

    Think about it!!
     
  6. Newbie

    Newbie Member

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    Did you take your psychiatrist prescribed medication? From the symptoms that you have been exhibiting, it seems you have missed the doses.
     
  7. Gaithonde

    Gaithonde Member

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    Are you taking a dig at mental health? That is sickening. Please change get out of your bubble and learn about life.

    What value are you adding to this forum? You have no knowledge on investing in companies. Please dont comment on this thread if you have nothing constructive to say. But it is a shame and truly disappointing that an educated person takes a piss at mental health. I assume you are literate at least..
     
  8. snake_eyes

    snake_eyes New Member

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    Mr Gaithonde, will appreciate your views on Indiabulls Venture

    Cheers
     
  9. Gaithonde

    Gaithonde Member

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    Firstly please post your thesis behind the idea. There are thousands of listed companies it is impossible for someone to have a view on all of them. Please post your thesis as well. That will give me a better idea on your thought process. I can point out something that could be an issue or warrants some looking into on your part.

    On any Indiabulls company I have only one view.. But its irelevant as I dont know your thesis. In the future people please add a thesis. The previous question came with some sort of a thesis and that enabled me to drill some sense into the that fool. So do reply with a thesis and your other stocks as well.
     
  10. Manmohan Gupta

    Manmohan Gupta Member

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    Hello Mr gaithonde

    I have invested heavily in liquor companies like USL, UBL, Radico, AABL and GM Brew

    Kindly enlighten me with your thoughts on the future of liquor sector in India

    Thanks and regards
     
  11. Gaithonde

    Gaithonde Member

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    Liquor companies you must look into the price of molasses. It is their key RM and if molasses prices fall you can expect margins to expand in a big way. However if the opposite happens there can be some pressure on margins. So It is best to look for a company that has pricing power (branded alcohol companies) and is more or less immune or able to pass on RM fluctuation to large extent.

    The liquor industry is exposed to govt. interventiion and regulation. So in the short term there could be swings and volatility. However if you have the courage to buy into them, that is a different story. I believe you dont.

    I have not studied any alcohol companies, I found and still find most of them very expensive.

    I think Associated Alcohol could be a decent story. I think Indian made foreign liquor. Which is what Associated Alcohol does. I know you dont know that. They manufacture for brands like smirnoff and Black label. Again one has to check up if they are able to pass on RM price volatility to their clients.

    The theme as whole "India consuming more alcohol" in my opinion is true. I think Alcohol consumption is a good theme to play keeping in mind the above mentioned issues.

    You have gone in for a basket approach which shows that you dont know what you are doing and have not done any bottoms up analysis. Simply looked at a theme and bought a bunch of companies.

    Will you stay the course? I really dont know. Ideas and themes will keep coming about, but I dont think you all have the conviction and ability to analyse and hold a company. Price action is the most important influence on your decision making I believe. So look at yourself as an investor and buy what you think suits you and your temparament. If you are a trader then you must focus on short term changes. For example with regards to alcohol keep a track of molasses supply and prices. If supply increases then these companies will benefit directly with lower molasses prices. And as molasses prices show signs of strength you can consider exiting.

    Look at the companies that own the brands and play the molasses cycle with the manufacturing guys.

    Study more. And please add your thesis as well. Without your thesis I cannot help you much.
     
  12. Manmohan Gupta

    Manmohan Gupta Member

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    Wow sir what an enlightening reply that was. Many of my concepts are clear now. You are a true expert.

    Sir I had another small question for you. Since I am a foolish novice and you are an expert elite veteran I think only you will be able to help me with this

    I have been fancied by consumer and FMCG companies because of the growing penetration of then in rural areas and also increase in disposable income by rural population
    However the valuations are sky high
    Can you kindly throw some light how to approach the FMCG and consumption theme and your favorite stocks in that sector.

    Once again I thank you for your noble initiative of enlightening poor and foolish people like me

    Thanks and regards
     
  13. Gaithonde

    Gaithonde Member

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    Dear Manmohan Singh,

    Again the theme is good. Consumption is perhaps the safest and best theme to play in India. This is not credit to you, its an obvious and well known theme.
    Yes the valuations are sky high. But the businesses are growing at double digits. make of that what you will. These valuations definately are very very expensive.
    If you use your brains you can play the consumer theme through other FMCG kind of products and companies. I mean excluding the well known ones like nestle HUL etc: I will not take any names or give any hints so dont even bother asking.

    These are typically businesses that you buy for a long long time and keep SIPing. But you wont see returns for the first few years from these levels I think. So think about that. If you plan on playing such companies then just buy a Mutual Fund youll do much better with no stress.

    My answer to your question is, simply don't approach them. Buy something else. The time to buy those companies was probably when everyone was chasing small and mid caps and driving up valuations of NBFCs and other scam companies. But I bet at that time you also were buying all that junk.. Now you want to buy these companies when everyone else is.. herd mentality.

    Dont approach them, buy Mutual funds. Invest when you find something after doing some research and getting strong conviction.
     
  14. Manmohan Gupta

    Manmohan Gupta Member

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    I am amazed with your clarity of thoughts. You are a true expert.

    Yes you are right.. I always go for herd mentality and buy those stocks and sectors which are hot. And I always burn my hands.

    Kindly help me break free from this herd mentality.
    I understand you cannot recommend stock names.

    But kindly help in in identifying outperforming sectors.

    Which sectors according to you have the potential to outperform in the next couple of years??
    Kindly help me in identifying sectors which are ripe for upmove

    Thanks once again
     
  15. snake_eyes

    snake_eyes New Member

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    Even my very limited wisdom tells me no view is ever irrelevant. So that one view on every India Bulls company is very valuable especially for us novices.

    Why IBV - the group has been a wealth creator in the last decade, management has largely delivered on it's strategy and continues to reward it's shareholders - dividend and/or through spinoff's.

    IBV - progressive business. The huge consumer finance potential rolls up to it. The recent growth there in is awesome. Future plans over the next 5 years should bring it akin to present day Bajaj Finance. Important also is the track record of management delivering on their earlier plans.
     
  16. Gaithonde

    Gaithonde Member

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    Dear Manmohan Singh,

    It is nice to see you communicating for once. It is a good sign, but I dont see your party winning the election. I also think your party will sell the country to China. Pappu will get the deal done. So if you can do speak up to your mom and tell her that that India needs to progress and not it has been looted enough over the last 70 years.

    See the sectors that I think will do well going forward, you wont even touch.
    Anyway Ill help you
    Capital goods is a space that can do very well as the private capex cycle turns. For this track the overall capacity utilisation levels across industries. As it nears 85% a new capex cycle will begin. How do you play private capex cycle?
    I leave that to you you, it can range from nuts and bolts manufacturers to banking. The valuations of these companies broadly speaking are also attractive and reasonable.
    Consumption is a safe theme to play. For this I would not go to the Nestles and pages. I would look beyond them. Not saying go and venture into micro cap unknown consumer brands. Look for other products other than maggi.
    Real estate is a space no one wants to touch now. And you could very well make good returns if things come good. But everything is wrong at the moment and I think you shouldnt venture there. Mainly because of your lack of knowledge and poor temperament. You cant handle it.

    Before all this go read some books and learn to change your thought process. Look beyond... That is priority, you simply arent smart enough at the moment. You need to change your fundamentals. And doing all this work trying to chase returns, you wont get more than 10% accounting for your lack of knowledge. 10% cagr would be best case. Im still saying buy an MF. Even if you spot all trends perfectly and buy good companies you wont do more than 20% cagr and that is assuming you an ace stock picker, buffet compounded at 21% or something. When he managed a smaller sum he of course used to pull 50% cagr Im guessing..

    Dont even get into all this, there is no point. Know your limitations. Munger says, tell me where Ill die and I wont go there its that simple. Im telling you straight up, youll die in the stock market with your level of knowledge and analysis. Dont go directly into it..
     
  17. Gaithonde

    Gaithonde Member

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    You yourself have stated it..

    Sameer Gehlaut knows how to build market cap.

    I dont know much about them. If you have conviction do as you please. I will and always will advocate MFs. I feel like you all lack the ability to beat the index over a long period of time.
     
  18. Manmohan Gupta

    Manmohan Gupta Member

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    Kindly share your portfolio stocks along with the rationale for selection of the stocks.

    This will help poor foolish people like me to gauge the thought process of elite veteran experts like you
     
  19. Gaithonde

    Gaithonde Member

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    DHFL - great mgmt. Ethical promoters. Good underwriting process. I see a potential 10x in 2 years.

    Yes Bank - change of guard. Great underwriting. Credit will always grow and has to grow in India. I see a potential 7x in 2.5 years.

    Vakrangee- Great business model. Highly scalable. Ethical mgmt. and a play on rural India. I see a potential 100x in 7 years.

    PCJ- great brand. Great mgmt. A consumer focussed business growing well. I see a potential 4x over the next 1.5 years.

    Gitanjali Gems- Ethical mgmt. Into a precious product. RM supplier to many Jewellers. Very Bullish on this scrip. I see a potential 3x in the next 1 year.

    Sun Pharma- Great mgmt. Akin to a fallen Angel. I see a potential 8x in 4 years with good dividends.


    Zee- Superb mgmt. and return metrics. Great content producers. I see a simple 2x in 6 months.

    RCom- Anil Ambani is a proven wealth creator coming from the house of dhirubhai ambani. I think data is the future and RCom are the right bet here. I see a potential 14x in 4 years as data penetrates further.

    LEEL- Great capital allocators. Managed to monetise the brand for a great price. I trust the mgmt will do the right things with the cash as they already have. Bullish and more of a value play so looking at a safe 2x in 2 years with low downside.

    All equal weights. I think MFs are better. Would say buy MFs and hold them for a long period of time. And make a few bets when you find something interesting and do some actual work and think a little.

    I have given you so much and yet you want my portfolio, because you dont want to do any thinking. Why is that I wonder?
    It is because you cant. You lack the ability. Your too stupid in this aspect. I hope this teaches you that this isnt a place for fun and games. IF you want to make money in the markets know your limitations. Go buy mutual funds.

    Any other questions apart from my portfolio are welcome. If you want my PF it is given at the start of this post... Do as you please with it.

    How ever if you have come this far I have a surprise for you. My biggest bet that I think can make not only life changing but generation changing wealth. Its below.. Please go through it !!

    I think this company can take market share away from Indigo over the next 5 years and become the leaders.
    They already have a great brand and solid capacity. Here is the kicker, the company has Etihad as its partner and they provide them with very cheap crude oil from the Sheikhs oil empire. This gives them a competitive moat for the time being.

    They are also getting into Electric Aircrafts. This could be a game changer and they will be leaders in this space. They could become a bigger company than TESLA. I see a potential 500x plus! over the next 10 years!!!!

    The company is..... Jet Airways and it makes up 10% of my pf.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019
  20. snake_eyes

    snake_eyes New Member

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    Simply awesome!!!! I have to compliment you on your stocks picks. And yes I hope you aren't media shy, for we all would love to see you on various TV channels once they start chasing you for interviews.

    Jet Airways - cheaper fuel from the kingdom. Could you please authenticate this piece of info.

    Yes Jet will surely surpass Tesla now that Mr Musk is planning commercial rocket travel on Earth. Anyways visionaries like Mr Musk would find their comparisons with the likes of Jet irrelevant.

    Doesn't mean Jet won't be a 500x bagger. BTW when are the first electric planes scheduled for delivery or is it that Jet is embarking on manufacturing their own?

    I recollect Norway committing 2040 for their short haul flights.
     
    Ajayyan, marrakesh and Jigyasoo like this.
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