Lost-all-hope Stocks - Need Strong Advice

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by Raaz, Aug 29, 2015.

  1. Raaz

    Raaz Active Member

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    Am in a dilemma about what to do with the following stocks:

    Cranes Software @ 5/-
    3IInfotech @ 7/-
    Autoline @ 139/-
    TTML @ 30/-
    Jindal Stainless @ 68/-

    Guess I am an expert at picking them out!!! Except 3IInfotech, I am stuck with the rest since 7-11 years.

    All advice will be gratefully welcomed. Thanks.
     
  2. Meenakshi Razdan

    Meenakshi Razdan Administrator Staff Member Moderator

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    I think more than the specific stocks, it would be a good idea to focus on the investment process. What causes us to be lured to such stocks with weak fundamentals? It is the greed to make maximum gains in the shortest possible time. This greed causes us to throw caution to the winds and buy stocks with no proven track record in the hope that they will turn into multibaggers and make us rich overnight.

    If we can realize the fallacy in our thinking and investment process, we can avoid making such mistakes in the future.

    I also suggest a change in the attitude. Instead of feeling bitter and miserable about the losses, treat them as a "tuition fee" paid to learn a life-long lesson in investing. If you do learn a "life-long" lesson, then the price you have paid is really a bargain!

    For the future, I suggest you develop a conservative approach. Make sure that preservation of capital is the first priority. Gains is the second priority. Invest in stocks with reputed managements with a long track record of performance. The companies should have good RoE and low/nil debt. They should have shown a consistent track record of growth and profitability.

    After you have identified a few such stocks, it is a good idea to write down a paragraph or two on the salient features of the stocks - their strengths and weaknesses. This will help to clarify your own thoughts and also help to develop conviction.

    A starting point to identifying such stocks is to read the Model Portfolios and research reports prepared by reputed brokerages. The advantage of such reports is that it gives you all the data in one place for you to work on and develop your conviction.
     
  3. Raaz

    Raaz Active Member

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    Thanks Meenakshi. You've hit the nail on the head. I've paid my 'tution fees' to the fullest and some more.... I am already following the steps you've mentioned in your last three para's and am quite satisfied.

    But what should I do about the duds that I hold? Book a one time huge loss and switch to some fundamentally good scrip or just leave the duds be?

    Thanks again.
     
  4. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    Never judge any stock at the price you have purchased.That is past.Current price is present .You forget the price paid.You judge your investment at current price and does the concerned company has good future ,you can can remain invested .Generally such duds don't have future ,book loss and forget.In future invest in qualty growth business of qualty managements.Always keep watch on performance of compnies you have invested.If price goes down but performance of business is up or only some temporary set back in business,keep the stock.If performace of business goes down and there is no certain possibility of reversal,come out of stock.Ride the winners,leave the losers to experts.Never follow experts in useless fundamentally weak companies and businesses.
     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2015
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  5. Meenakshi Razdan

    Meenakshi Razdan Administrator Staff Member Moderator

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    Hmmm ... I think you have to be careful not to fall victim to the "sunk cost fallacy". There is a detailed explanation of this in wikepedia and lifehack. Basically, sunk costs influences decisions because humans are prone to loss aversion.

    I suggest you treat the present value of the stocks as if they were money in your hands and ask whether you would use the money to buy those same stocks. Sometimes, the answer may be in the affirmative because a stock which has fallen so much may in fact be a bargain purchase. The poor fundamentals may in fact now be priced in. However, it is necessary that the decision be taken objectively and without the pressures of "loss aversion" clouding the thinking.

    Here again, the solution may be to write a paragraph or two on what it is about the stock that attracted you in the first place and whether any of those factors are still in place. This may help you to take a clear decision.
     
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  6. uppu.narayan

    uppu.narayan New Member

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    what makes someone pick stock like cranes soft, 3ii infotech, ttml? if picked are you tracking them daily when their price go down if not then stock investing is not you should go for.
     
  7. Raaz

    Raaz Active Member

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    Mr. Narayan, am I the only one who's made mistakes? Even ICICI, Mr. RJ and I am sure many more experts are as guilty as me as they had also invested heavily into one or other of these same scrips at one time. You may be capable of timing the market, I am not. If I was, I wouldn't be seeking advise on this board. But your expert advice will be highly appreciated. Thanks.
     
  8. bholu

    bholu Active Member

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    dear raaz, what was your thesis behind investing in these stocks ? I think uppu ji is correct ..if you are trader keep a stop loss or else invest in fundamentally good companies, its your money ...and nobody will feel sorry for you
     
  9. Raaz

    Raaz Active Member

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    The moot point now is not the logic, thesis or reason, but what to do now....sell or hang on?
     
  10. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    Just sell without any second though without seeking any further advice ,it will be better if after that U never discuss thisThese are duds so
    don't deserve your investment and others time.
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2015
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  11. Raaz

    Raaz Active Member

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    Thanks, Kharb.
     
  12. Rahul Arora

    Rahul Arora Member

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    I also think just sell it ....now after this correction, u will get many fundamentally gd stock in good price....shift to those stocks
     
  13. Raaz

    Raaz Active Member

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    Ok. Thanks Rahul. Can you suggest some scrips? I can only invest upto 3.5-4 lacs at the moment. Thanks again.
     
  14. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

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    Go for Pharma stocks. Try JB Chem. Good dividend and growth. Huge cash on books. SAFE STOCKS FOR CAPITAL & GROWTH.

    Report of Buy JB Chemical & Pharmaceuticals Ltd For Target Rs.320 - Reliance Securities Ltd

    JB Chemical (JBCPL) bucked the stockmarket carnage on Friday and rose ~4% with high volumes. At a time when most large-cap pharma companies are trading at premium valuations, JBCPL is trading at 12x FY17E EPS. It has a huge cash pile and is virtually debt free. In order to tap the potential opportunities, JBCPL has undertaken an expansion program at its facilities. It has guided for a capex of Rs1.4bn for a new facility over the next 12-18 months. The capex will be met through internal accruals. With outstanding cash balance of Rs5bn, which forms ~44% of the capital deployed, we expect a significant improvement in its return ratios. With India and US as key focus geographies, we expect sales CAGR of 15% and APAT CAGR of 18% over FY15-17E with steady improvement in margins. Given the attractive valuations, we recommend BUY on the stock with a Target Price of Rs320.
     
  15. stockguru

    stockguru Active Member

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    @Raaz We all make mistakes and would probably continue making the mistakes. It is human nature and really won't go away. I suggest you sell all these and move on to better companies. Atleast by selling them you wouldn't have to see them daily in your portfolio and think about the losses that you have made. Trust me it makes a difference by not thinking about it everytime you see the portfolio. Regarding the companies that you want to invest, if you have a longer term horizon I suggest you buy good strong quality large caps. The thing with these large caps is that they don't rarely go that down and probably most of them would have a good dividend stream. So take advantage of this fall and buy some good largecaps. You can pick some strong quality midcaps too but chose just between these two. Happy Investing :D
     
  16. Raaz

    Raaz Active Member

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    Thanks A lot, Srouta & Stockguru....Am gonna follow your advise of booking a loss once and for all and moving on, but will wait for the market to stabilise a bit to re-enter since its so volatile at the moment. Thanks again.
     
  17. stockguru

    stockguru Active Member

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    Dont look at the market. Look at your stock price that you intend to buy. Look only at that. If you think you are getting a bargain price then buy it. It is impossible to time the market.
     
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  18. MoneyWorks4ME

    MoneyWorks4ME Active Member

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    You must exit gracefully out of these stocks and start rebuilding your portfolio. You have learned the lesson The Hard Way. Don't ever quit equities.
     
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  19. Raaz

    Raaz Active Member

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    Thanks SG & MW4ME, am gonna do just that, no more procrastination....and, quitting was never on my mind. So, please keep your good advises coming, lay people like me need it....Thanks.
     
  20. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    In my view 3iInfotech is in a long term bearish phase ...range is Rs.2 - Rs.6.5 better exit some portion at 5-6.5 levels and invest in a better company which is in a top 100 companies in India above 3 there is chance to movie 2 - 3 rupees ...

    in my view your portfolio is very weak ...better chance to strong companies in top 100 in india
     
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