Market Masters With Vijay Kediya and Porinju Veliyath

Anybody is going for Mahindra Holiday and Century Textile? I am housefull with stocks and no money

 

how about you borrow some money then? surely with your stock investing capabilities and that of many in here like @kharb, @BombayBoy @RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA etc you can make a lot more than interest outgo.....

alternately encash some of your multibaggers. Mahindra Holidays is worth it. I have been SIP'ing it.

 

I am thinking to enter in Century Textiles. Last year I entered Heritage Foods which was given by Vijay Kedia and gave me handsome returns.

 

This statement shows you have more conviction in all your portfolio stocks and can not exit from any one to make room for two recommendations of Big Star investers. So for benefit of investers of this form, pl flash your full portfolio with weightage.

 

Very Good Concept Stock but in reality very tough business when it comes to selling membership. So very long term bet, frustrating some time, may not move for years some time. I doubt people had made any serious money right from IPO price 300 in 2009 till date.But stock may perform in very long term, but for that when to invest is a tough call . My study in this stock one year back resulted into avoid just because of one issue, very difficult job of selling membership. But I really don't know what has changed since than and many of Wizard of Dalal street are recommending it and latest being Vijay kedia.More over discount sell of hotel rooms by online players must be making job more difficult. So my top pick in this sector remains Indian hotel with increased focus of management to profits.

 

Maybe you need to study it a bit more. Look at factors the so called Wizards highlight. Their opinions matter the most and certainly carry more weight than mine.

My bit as follows -

Mahindra Holidays is a play in the leisure hospitality industry and not hotel industry. So any comparison with Indian Hotels is unfounded.

Undoubtedly the Market leader in the business with resorts in unique and popular destinations

Memberships:

Mahindra Holidays markets a high-value discretionary product and NOT discount sell of hotel rooms. Theirs is a pull-based marketing strategy comprising alliances, digital and referrals to generate high quality leads and increase conversion. It also runs a corporate product program enrolling organisations to offer holiday entitlements to its employees or group vacations

Mahindra Holidays added around 16,200 members to its vacation ownership business in 2015-16 (credible given the low consumer disposition towards high-value discretionary spends due to economic slowdown) — taking the total membership base to close to 200k at the close of 2015-16.

With a total room inventory of 2,879 units across its 45 resorts getting bookings is already a challenge for its members. I can say this with my own experience.

Whether then it’s a case of members are hard to find or the company is adding based on its room inventory is a key question. I believe it’s their strategy to strike a balance between the two

Now is room inventory a constraint with Occupancy rates at a stable around 81 per cent?

Well

Four projects that are in the pipeline alone are expected to add around 500 units in the next two years and 700 overall in a few years

Club Mahindra members now also have the option of visiting HCR’s resorts in Europe - 31 resorts in Finland, Sweden and Spain. And I can tell you that each of these countries are awesome places to visit.

The Indian travel and tourism industry is worth USD 112 billion. This is expected to increase to USD 244 billion by 2024, and 81 per cent of this is expected to be contributed by domestic tourism.

As far as the vacation ownership industry in India is concerned, the market penetration is still very low. If one compares the Indian vacation ownership industry with the US in terms of its share in the hospitality sector, the scope for growth in India is around five times of its current size. Clearly, there is a significant headroom for growth of the business.

More so, holidays have become an essential element in the discretionary spend budget of households and emerging trends in holidaying preferences are encouraging from the Company’s perspective.

Investors may not have got stunning gains since its IPO but it hasn’t yielded negative returns like a Reliance. But hey arent you an investor interested in a 15-16% CAGR save and sound investments? Isnt this your oft repeated line?

 

@saturn if you are talking about leisure and discretionary industry, can't Wonderla be better than Mahindra Holidays?

 

I know the Question isnt meant for me, but still i feel that the business model are quite different. Wonderla are mainly into amusement parks and their reach is not wide as Mahindra holidays. Mahindra holidays revenue is not about tickets and stuff. Its more about membership fees. They also do have tie ups with various resorts and hotels. Like i live in Dubai and even here they have tie up with hotels.
Kindly note i am not comparing which Company is better but just comparing their business style.

 

@om sangani, buddy you are welcome to step in. Bang on in terms of business models. Point to keep in mind is that memberships are longterm unlike repeat footfalls to amusement parks that are hard to achieve. I would think that the initial charm wears out once you have visited the park. Also, amusement parks remain an urban theme, require large land parcel which may be hard to find at viable commercial terms, currently a large portion of revenue is generated by sale of tickets and so any competition which forces a price reduction can see significant impact on topline. Other threats - increasing competition from other players in amusement park and from other kinds of entertainment services and tourist spots (quite intense I think), long gestation periods and capital intensive projects, no one established brand in pole position still - wonderla manages to stay ahead of the pack, stagnant footfalls on its existing parks (point i made earlier too)

But the sector has potential. Wonderla has the potential of being a Mahindra Holidays in the amusement parks segment. Sector likely to grow 20% CAGR over next five years. Company has planned significant investments about Inr170bln over next 4years (funding and execution will be key along with the correct location selection (mahindra has mastered this art and has proven execution track record).

So I my view any Mahindra Holiday vs Wonderla comparision needs to consider (i) revenue sources, stability and revenue growth (ii) level and sources of competition (iii) stage and positioning in their respective sectors including brand (iv) track record (v) sector potential

On these, whilst investment Wonderla may yield better returns (given its nascent stage vs a fairly mature stage of Mahindra Holidays), it is also a riskier investment. Mahindra Holiday in my personal view comes out better in the first 4 points at the moment. I am not a high risk taker though have earmarked funds for trading and dabbling in opportunistic high risk possibilities. Wonderla for the moment will not be an invest and forget types for me.

@Farhan Ghumra , I hope you find our posts useful.

 

When I did study of Mahindra holiday I knew every thing you mentioned and went very deep which you or even Vijay Kedia cant, which I usually don't go.So I am not convinced, but still I took token entry today to check noise and conviction of others.Similarly I invested in three stocks last year because of noise around them by big investers Granules India, HSIL and United spirits. But had to exit with minor losses in all three.Main issue today is you should not feel left out during steep upward market movement.

 

First, its Mahindra Holidays and not Mohindra Holiday... Now,

Maybe it was because of the very deeeeeeep dive analysis of Mahindra Holiday, you felt it appropriate that both Mahindra Holidays and Indian Hotels are in the same sector. Good one at the very minimum.

Ofcourse you are mister know it all. We pale in front of your all pervasive knowledge. Maybe thats the reason you cant reply on either vardhaman textiles or cheap money which FII's want to loose or brokerage remarks on RIL etc etc.

And not convinced but still bought... you belong to the FII class dude - with cheap money to loose. Hope you are not disappointed here (which you would incase you end up making money on this)

Finally, wont ask you the logical question - why buy when noise and conviction of others can be checked by just putting the stock on your watchlist? Anyways hope the stock trends the way you expect/anticipate Mr Know it all and loose money on this one too

 

I am not here to prove any body wrong. What I will get after watch list, I am in real game,so no harm in small betting on noise, continue and increase bet if found any substance. I always start buying stock in small trenches to test waters, if story folds out as noise I can keep on increasing weight slowly for long ride, if don't play out well, who stops me from exiting with minor loss.This is the difference between permoters and small invester.Small investers. can leave the ship if it start sinking. Permoters are like Caption of the ship has to sink along with ship. I need only few very long rides even at the cost of many small failures.

 

You want to test waters......comeon your understanding is much much better (self proclaimed though and like the many other self proclaimations we hear from you regularly) than the ones making the noise. So why test waters you already know (through your very deeeeeep analysis) are shark infested?