What will be next 10x. or 100 x multibaggers stocks

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by kharb, Sep 14, 2015.

  1. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    DCB bank is my next pick ,which I believe can be a 10 baggers and should be bought in correction and and can it be 100 x ,yes is answer of Raamdev Aggarwal of Motilal Oswal.This bank came to my radar first time in 2007.In that year UPA govt was thinking on allowing industrial houses to own Banks.I think some of U might be knowing that Tata group acquired 4.6% at 105 Rs.Some other entities also bought huge chunk in hope to sale their stake to Tata group later on if govt allow it .But UPA govt decide against their own idea of allowing industrial houses in banking.But rumour at that time of zeroing of this Bank by Tata group for their banking entry ,group headed by Ratan Tata at that time certainly give me comfort. Presently Aghan Khan trust is biggest share holder at 15 % aprox .This trust also had intrest in Diamond trust bank in Africa,Habib bank biggest private bank in Pakistan and also some in Bangladesh.Mutual funds hold about 24%.Many good small and mid cap mutual fund has DCB bank in their portfolio. Motilal Oswal Raamdev Aggarwal has already declared this as future 100x.Management of this Bank is very good in my view although I am not a banking expert to declare it,but people with expertise are free to differ.Mr.Natrajan MD of the bank was earlier Global head SME of standard chartered bank before serving auto and retail in same bank.He is CA and started his job with American express bank .After few years in this Bank went on to join City bank and has long inning with that bank before coming to Standard chartered bank.DCB bank expertise is SME banking and Mr Natrajan has good experience of this field in addition to retail bankning. You can read further about this Bank on their site on invester presentation. I am invested in this Bank on basis of a crisil report when it was around 40 and report suggested that it's fair value is 60.,It was about three year back if I remember correctly.Stock has multiplied more than three times very fast and you may have to wait to enter in correction and I hope after that it will keep its multiplication on due to its small base and size .Some people say small is beutiful.It fits into formulae of SQGLP for multiyear multibaggers .Although I don't have any news but in my view it can also be target take over of Kotak and IDFC bank.Mr. Kotak has to dilute his stake in bank,I think he will not sale his stake but may acquire one more bank to dilute that.And what ever IDFC Management say against it,,they may have to acquire some bank to scale up.DCB fits them as a small modern bank with expertise in SME lending along with Mr Natrajan expert of SME lending.Ideas here expressed are my personal views for discussion and not based on any insider information .My views are in no way my recommendation to buy this stock.
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2015
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  2. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

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    Sir Prakash Diwan has said same thing:

    DCB Bank – 30-35% upside expected in 12 months:

    DCB Bank lost 20-25 percent twice in the last 12 months and has bounced back so sharply, which very clearly indicates that there is a very strong positive uptrend. Essentially there is a lot of appetite for these kind of banks. People have seen the way YES Bank and IndusInd Bank have already run up so much, even ING Vysya Bank before the Kotak Mahindra Bank merger. The appetite of small banks is huge because that is where you make a huge multiple. You cannot have Axis Bank doubling from the current level very soon but a small bank would potentially do well.

    IDFC may not get that kind of a fancy except for speculation on the de-merger, DCB Bank has a very strong franchise within a particular trade community in Maharashtra and Gujarat and their propensity to pay back on time is legendary. That is one of the reasons why they have just had some net non-performing assets (NPAs) of about 1.2 percent. They have a current account saving account (CASA), which is not very huge as yet with just late 20s, early 30s but that is a lot of headroom for growth. In fact they have not been aggressive on deposit mobilisation as yet.

    What is important about DCB’s growth is their focus on mortgages in the last three years. Very quietly, gradually their book has built primarily on the mortgage side and not too much on loans business and stuff like that and that is a very strong franchise. I think given the kind of low cost housing push and the interest rate cuts, housing finance anyways has started getting re-rated positively. So capital adequacy is decent enough, more than 14 percent, they have indicated they will grow at 25 percent and the balance sheet will grow this year without fresh capital getting infused. So we have got all the positive metrics to grow from here in a significant way. I think the consolidation is kind of already over. Technically there has been a good, decent breakout also. So once that happens, we could see 30-35 percent upside in the next 12 months from here.

    https://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/the-latest-three-stock-picks-of-prakash-diwan/
     
  3. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

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    Sir, you have 7 bank stocks in portfolio? How many stocks in all?
     
  4. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    DCB gets a thumbs up...... Bank undergoing a transformation and management getting its act right to lead it to growth and without any blowing of own trumpet.

    Sure it's not gonna be another indusind, but sureshot 25-30% return in the coming 3-5 years.
     
  5. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    Dear kharb ,

    Brother " Stock - artist " said about " Pincon " stock in my
    FUTURE MULTI BAGGER COMPANY ANALYSIS thread

    and it is also posted in
    Pincon Spirit Ltd (hidden gem pick by The Ace Investor) by bazaariyan

    what is your opinion ?....
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2015
  6. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    @kharb

    Indian Hotels buying on day of attack and at throw away price. Nice move. So surely it must be a multibagger now...
     
  7. stockjeet18

    stockjeet18 Member

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    Dear kharb,
    Please tell your checklist for stock selection
     
  8. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    So what are you buying these days when the market is on the uptrend? Or do you expect this rally to be shortlived
     
  9. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    @kharb ,

    L & T Fin Jun 2015 quarterly results are very poor and sales and profit comedown drastically

    last year promoter decrease stake nearly 2 % but they are maintaining 72 %

    in my view Promoter is strong and Business establishment all over India will take some time also

    But equity is very high Rs. 1720 Cr. , and stock range is 60-75 , if stock cross Rs. 75 their is a chance to move
    up ward direction now it is in a consolidation phase

    CRISIL has given fair value of this stock is Rs. 65 per share ...
    last year CRISIL given a research report on this company please read this ....
    https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/c...ndamental-grade-45-to-lt-finance_1048855.html
     
  10. Fun_Da_Mentalist

    Fun_Da_Mentalist Active Member

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    Bain Capital has bought into it ( preferential shares and warrants).Around the middle of Sept they bought about 10 per cent at INR 70 . This was at a premium to existing prices.
     
  11. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    Dear Fundamentalist_Bain Capital purchase price is 70,,they don't come for just bank interest,they usualy take a long ride
     
  12. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    yes kharb ,
    but only one problem is heavy equity , but when ever market corrects , below 60 Rs. there is a chance to buy this stock , below 50 Rs. avoid this stock m 1 or 2 years time to wait for investors for better results
     
  13. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    Generally funds buying for long term ...and it is not a proper base for buying for a investor
    funds are also loose their money , but we should watch company fundamentals and then decide
     
  14. Fun_Da_Mentalist

    Fun_Da_Mentalist Active Member

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    I agree with you Rama Murthy. It was more in the nature of offering an additional data point.
     
  15. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    DCB is potential multibaggers,have patience. Don't throw away your holding and just dont get trapped in game plan of some big players who just want to grab the stock through creation of panic.DCB remains the same bank as it was three days back.Nothing wrong if management want to be aggressive. They know the business and when to change the gears.Passengers should not decide in which gear vehicle should run,driver know the best .Neither we should believe others who want to enter at lower price by creating panic.Good stock to ride,use price correction to your advantage. These rumour mongers will have to buy the stock at higher prices and there will be big line of buyers with cheque books to buy the Stock, when execution will start.STAY INVESTED,DCB IS GOOD STORY TO RIDE FOR LONG TERM.
     
  16. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

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    Very good point!
     
  17. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    DCB will cut back on its branch expansion plan.

    Details will be out today...if not already out
     
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  18. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    It will not cut its expansion plan of 150 branches, but has increased its time frame to two years.If it has done good home work for 150 branches, it should stick to 150 branch expansion plan.But to increase time frame just to please market may be just to take every one board.But fact remains that this is a stock for long ride.Only some market players want to manulplate, but they will fail,stock has started recovery already.
     
  19. Warrenbuff77

    Warrenbuff77 Member

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    Well said @ Kharb. Folks, Don't get panic with DCB bank. As mentioned above it is a good pick for long term. Buy & forget. I have lots @ 130 and 90. Bank is still the same. It will grow. Since they have aggressive expansion plans, the returns will not be much high in short term. But for long term all will happen for Good.
    I am not an expert but this is what i understand from my study. cheers, play safe.
     
  20. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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    DCB appears to be a good investment at this level as an undervalued

    pick among similar private banks ,otherwise it did not appeal me as a promisng bank and a worthy investment pick cosidering fundamental metrics available in public domain if one compairs with Yes bank,Axis bank or Kotak bank.
     
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