Basis your advice, made changes in Stock Portfolio - Experts pl advice!

Hello everyone!

While I've been active in stock market for a while, only recently I started investing seriously. Read a couple of books (Peter Lyncy, Basant etc), follow blogs, do some bit of research and basis that I've invested some money in the following stocks. I would request stock market experts here to advice me on course correction if any. Thanks !
Stock % of Portfolio
AMARAJ 0.9%
ASHLEY 0.8%
ATUAUT 0.3%
CEAT 3.3%
MOTSUM 1.2%
TELCO 0.6%
TVSSUZ 2.2%
AXIBAN 2.8%
GRUFIN 5.9%
HDFBAN 6.1%
ICIBAN 1.9%
IDFC 0.5%
LICHF 0.9%
PTCIND 0.7%
REPHOM 15.7%
YESBAN 1.1%
KAVSEE 0.4%
PIIND 2.8%
CENPLY 1.5%
CERSAN 2.5%
SININD 1.4%
HAWCOO 4.0%
VIPIND 0.3%
CUMIND 0.5%
KECIN 0.2%
VATWAB 0.8%
GODCON 0.8%
ITC 1.9%
PIDIND 1.1%
ROSCOM 1.7%
RSSOFT 0.1%
ZENTEC 0.4%
GLOBRO 0.3%
ASIPAI 4.6%
GOONER 0.6%
ARVREM 0.2%
GRANUL 2.4%
IPCLAB 0.7%
SUNPHA 0.3%
SNOLOG 0.3%
IDECEL 0.4%
KITGAR 6.7%
NANEXI 2.2%
PAGIND 16.3%

 

Dear Monty ,

your stock selection is good ..... congratulations ... but it is a large diversified portfolio ...

some corrections you have to do in your portfolio...

1. maximum cut to 20 stocks only , if you are able to manage maximum 25 stocks ...don't exceed that
2. each sector maximum 3 stocks don't exceed that number
3. according to market condition cash availability increase and decrees
4.cash maintains min 15 % - max 40 % according to market condition

1.AUTO
ASHOK LEYLAND

2.STEEL
TATASTEEL

3.BANKS
ICICI BANK
YES BANK
HDFC BANK

4.HOUSING FINANCE

LICHOUSING

5.POWER TRADING

PTC INDIA

6.AGRICULTURAL

KAVERI SEEDS

7.CONSUMER DURABLES

VIP IND

8.CAPITAL GOODS

CUMMINS IND

9.CONSUMER PRODUCTS

ITC
HUL

10. PHARMA

SUN PHARMA
BIOCON
IPCA LAB

OTHERS

PI IND
VATWAB

TOTAL 17 STOCKS ....

REMAINING ALL STOCKS EXIT .....
ALL THE BEST ......

 

These are just too many stocks @Monty . Even if some of them become multibaggers you will get the returns of less than FD rates on your overall portfolio. Thats the problem with over diversification. I would say that you stay with 10-15 high conviction stocks and stay with them through thick and thin. From you stocks I suggest the following:

1. Motherson Sumi
2. Granules
3. Axis Bank
4. IDFC
5. Repco Home
6. Century Ply
7. PI ind
8. Cummins
9. RS Software (Or Tata Elxsi)
10. HUL
11. Snowman Logistics

 

Dear Dinesh, Rama,

Thanks for your valuable inputs. While I understand and agree that the portfolio is just too big, I face the dilemma of selling the stocks - as some like Gruh, Repco, Nandan Denim, Page Industries could be multibaggers few are secular growth stocks like HDFC, Axis, Godrej.

Would definitely want to exit from ITC (too slow), Idea, Tata Motors (in red now for me), ICICI bank (red) etc.

So just waiting for the market to pick up some pace, recover losses in few which are in red and reduce the size.

Over last few months I have realized, that only in stock where i have put substantial money (like Page, Kitex, Repco) they move the portfolio. Some in which i have 5-6k invested (like Cummins, Snowman) doest make much of a diff.

What do you think?

Thanks!
Monty

 

Dear Monty ,
you are correct ,

In ITC there is " tobacco " business is certainly negative ...
domestic sales are very good and also well diversified , importent point is they are trying to more diversify ...they are huge cash reserves also

in my view profit booking is more important ....
very long term i dont believe because human life is very short ...we should not compare with
warren buffett .... investment .....
in my view fundamental analysis got some weakness also like they don't tell stop loss subject...
just like TATA MOTORS or JP asso price falling they keep on buying that is very cheep but how many years you hold that stock ? is a big issue ....

emotion less investment and trading is more important ...i have studied so many investors issues they keep constant attachment with stock and married those stocks ... and in his view all stocks are good and a they are maintain 70 -100 stocks also ...
in crash they were wort effected people in my study

and generally people sell all if a stock in his portfolio went high profits ....
but if it is a multi bagger he miss that bus ...

in my life i catch more than 30 multi baggers very early ..but in some cases
i book early profits ...in some cases my purchasing quantity is very less

so all parameters are very important

 

I like Deepak's list. But I think I'd trim it further.

2. Granules
4. IDFC
5. Repco Home
7. PI ind

 

Thanks @jarmoney ! Nothing on Textiles? I am very bullish on Page and Kitex. Nandan is more of a speculation. So is IDFC - intially i was planning to hold it till the banking operations start - will do more study now on this.

By the way - Exited from couple of stock today

 

@Monty IDFC is a good stock

good analysis keep it up ....
ALL THE BEST .....

 

Repco page hdfc gruh kitec are close to 60 % in your portfolio I hope you have a strong logic and conviction to have such a concentrated portfolio

 

Share your view on ATLAS CYCLE..

 

Dear Bhagwan ,

ATLAS CYCLE is a 65 years Old company
CMP :Rs. 227.05
low equity , good quality product , fundamentally last year company showed weakness in results
latest quarterly results also showing few loss ..but management is very good .... in my view they may over come with their abilities ,
In my view last 5 trading sessions stock price and volume are increasing .....
today if price break down Rs. 219 /- it may be fall to 210 rupees with in few days
If it cross Rs.241 it may went to 260 in short term .....

high risk apatite traders and investors may take advantage in this stock rally ...
If it sustain in the zone of Rs. 260 above there is a possibility to grow further Rs.320 levels in medium term
low risk investors may enter in to this stock at Rs.150 - 170 levels

stock is in a aggressive nature , with out fundamental changes stock price moving up side .....


ALL THE BEST ......

 

Oh yes I do have conviction and that's why invested aggressively in these stocks. If you see all of the have either niche offerings or leadership in the sector. PAGE is catering to huge young population which is becoming more n more brand conscious, plus they have great quality product and strong brand. Kitex is a leading company handling Infant wear market, plus now about to launch their own brand. Have strong presence in international markets. HDFC Bank - without a doubt a rock solid stock which is compounded year after year. Repco and Gruh are new shining stars in NBFC sector. My next bet is on Granules! {

But, please share your thoughts as well...may be I'm missing something?

Happy to learn.

Cheers~!

 

In my previous post i mentioned that If ATLAS CYCLE price Rs. 219 break down it may be fall to Rs. 210
rupees with in few days ...
today 219 break down price reached now at Rs .210 and Rs. 208.05 low .....

ALL THE BEST

 

2.STEEL
TATASTEEL

Ramamurthy JI,

You have mentioned Tata Steel, its also falling like Tata Motors but you mentioned to have in portfolio. Its almost 5 years low. Should we consider it to buy list then on what basis as it has huge debt it its book then why not Tata Motors at this price of 285.

Thanks
Ajay

 

Dear ajay ,

Tata Motors last year loss is Rs. 4738.95 Cr.

Tata steel is showing profit last year Rs. 6439 Cr.
Tata steel PE Ratio is at 4.32 only in nifty stocks it is a very reasonable price stock
thats why i add in that list .....

ALL THE BEST

 

Thanks RamaMurthy JI.

 

Ajay,

What is your time frame? Tata Motors and Tata Steel have begun offering static value...... both are prominent global players in their respective sectors and both are facing challenges in the immediate/medium term. But both are companies which will pass through these difficult times. So if you have some spare cash which you want to lock in for long term upfront, start nibbling into both these stocks between now and the next 12 months.

Bad times never last for ever and when things turnaround (which they will), given their leadership positions in their respectiv sectors will give stupendous returns.

Commodities by their very nature are cyclical. We have seen many such cycles and companies like tata steel, hindalco, sail etc have lived through every such cycle.

 

Wou

I would suggest caution on IDFC. Their banking launch isnt going to be a game changer rightaway. Did you see their Banking CEO's interview about what kind of returns he expects over the next 3-5 years afer which he expects the takeoff to occur..

 

All new age bank with good management has done well.I am of the view, IDFC bank will be successful. As far as Bank CEO interview is concerned,he has guided 10 to 15% profit growth. All good management give conservative targets to public to avoid any disappointment. But internal targets are different. I have always bet on new generation private sector Banks and done pretty well.I am optimistic with my experience., IDFC bank will be reasonably good new technology bank.I am betting on it as my next multibagger in large cap.I shall be a slow buyer on bad days in next few months and intend to hold it for long term.

 

If the economy of india's improve then definitely banks profit shall improve, but all are estimated, we as a common man do not know where the economy will be in next 3-5 years, so park fund very cautiously in stock market.