one of the biggest concern for me as a investor in the company, Promoters are systematically existing followed by FII and DII. they dont have any clear revenue guideline.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Nirlon- Forgotten Story or A sleepy compounder? (16-08-2024)
While it makes sense on the points raised above, it would not be appropriate to brush off the company as not worthy of investing in. There are many kind of investors out there and clearly it is an asset certain kinds of shareholders have been holding on to, so to them it may be making some sense. Not everyone is wanting outright stock price appreciation. Many prefer the cash flow
Key reasons for holding the company
- Conservative management
- Strength of the underlying asset (it is backed by a hard asset in NKP/NH)
- ICICI multicap fund has recently taken a position
- Reasonable capital appreciation based on organic growth of rentals of a prime property
- High dividend returns for those looking at cash flow
Key concerns
- Non committal management (Doesn’t provide much clarity on restructuring plans: delisting or becoming a REIT are both being speculated). GIC is the major shareholder and it is also doing deals with Brookfield REIT in Mumbai
- No inorganic growth plans or additional property under development.
- Dividends have been stagnant for the past few years
- Some promoters selling out, however GIC is not buying further stake which is a question mark
- Debt reduction glide path and gestation period
Disc: Invested as of now. Could be wrong in the assessment and biased
Yasho Industries (16-08-2024)
- Q1 FY’25 consolidated revenue grew 15% year-on-year to INR 172.87 crores
- Volume growth of 27% year-on-year
- Exports contributed 61% of revenue
- EBITDA margins constrained due to underutilization of new Pakhajan facility
- Negative PAT due to depreciation and interest costs from new facility
- Successfully commissioned new Pakhajan facility in April 2024, adding 20,000 MT capacity
- Total capacity now at 32,500 MT
- Opened subsidiary in USA to expand sales network
- Expect >90% capacity utilization at Pakhajan by FY’26
- Targeting 50% utilization at Pakhajan by end of FY’25
- FY’25 revenue target of INR 900+ crores with 19-20% EBITDA margin
- FY’26 revenue target of INR 1,200-1,300 crores
- Expect EBITDA margins to stabilize to previous levels by Q3-Q4 FY’25
- Huge opportunity for further expansion at Pakhajan site
- Current Pakhajan capacity only 10% of future optimal capacity
- Addressable market of INR 5,500 crores for new Pakhajan products
- Seeing delays in exports due to container availability issues
- Expect export situation to stabilize by Q3-Q4
- Working with both new and existing customers for Pakhajan ramp-up
- Long-term supply agreements expected with customers after trials
- Debt/EBITDA expected to be close to 3x by end of FY’25
- No plans for equity dilution through QIP
- Focus on restricting debt/EBITDA to 2-2.5x range going forward
- New capacity commissioned but ramp-up impacting near-term profitability
- Strong volume growth despite pricing pressures
- Confident of achieving targeted utilization and margins once fully ramped up
- Significant growth opportunity in addressable markets for new products
- Focus on debt management while pursuing growth plans
Nitiraj Engineers: Electronic Weight Machines (16-08-2024)
Management Comments on poor Q1 FY25:
Q1 FY25 presented challenges for our performance, primarily due to two significant factors.
First, the election period led to the suspension of tenders and orders, creating a temporary
slowdown in our business activities. Second, our ongoing factory expansion efforts required
substantial resources and focus, which, while crucial for our long-term growth, also impacted
our short-term performance. Also first quarter for us is always lean due to lower institutional
demand.
However, despite these hurdles, we achieved notable operational milestones. One of the key
highlights was the successful launch of our new product in the security and automation sector:
the GSM Shutter Alarm. This innovative device is designed to enhance security by triggering an
alarm and automatically placing phone calls to pre-saved numbers if any attempt is made to
open the shutter. The trials for this product were highly successful, indicating strong potential
for its market adoption.
In addition to the GSM Shutter Alarm, we made significant advancements in our drone
technology. We successfully manufactured two drones and conducted field trials, both of which
yielded positive results. These drones represent a strategic step forward in our technological
capabilities and position us well in a rapidly growing market.
Moreover, our international endeavours are showing promise, particularly with our projects in
Germany, which is progressing steadily through the pipeline. These projects are expected to
open new avenues for growth and further establish our presence in the global market.
Overall, while Q1 FY25 posed certain challenges, our operational achievements have laid a solid
foundation for future growth. We remain optimistic about overcoming the short-term obstacles
and are confident in our strategic direction moving forward.
My comments:
- I feel the company is heavily dependent on government orders. There was a total collapse of sales to 4cr from 52 cr in the previous quarter. All the sales momentum going to drain.
- No progress on expanding to other states in the last 3 months.
- No further progress on export orders, they have still made the same comment about Germany.
Maybe they will get back to normal business in the next quarter. But there is still going to be a price correction. It can easily touch 200 DMA, a 25% correction from here.
HDFC Life Insurance Company (16-08-2024)
Hii, I am new to this thread. I have studied the Insurance sector in the past few months. The big advantage that HDFC Life Insurance has here is the benefit of cross selling to its HDFC Customers. The bank has put a cap on its sales person at 65% of HDFC Life Insurance to be sold and the rest by other insurance providers. So far the adoption has been rather slow with other life insurance providers like Tata AIA and Birla Sun Life Insurance gaining pace.
However, when it comes to products- their product innovation and variety is very poor with simple schemes.
If the company is able to take advantage of HDFC Bank ecosystem the bottomline growth can be immense leading to huge value creation for all shareholders
Disc: Not invested yet, tracking patiently
Nitiraj Engineers: Electronic Weight Machines (16-08-2024)
https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/NITIRAJ_16082024132013_InvestorRepresentationQ1FY25.pdf Explained decline of turnover which seems correct considering all time high turnover in Q4 24.
Aarti Industries – Integrated Diversified Player on Benzene Derivatives (16-08-2024)
One needs to be careful when in last ten years Sales & Profit Gr < 10% , butt PE is still crazy at 45 and promoters has kept on selling shares for years together …
Aarti is good business to own at price 1/3 of current
SWAN ENERGY LIMITED (SEL): The company focussing on sectors with strong tailwinds (16-08-2024)
India’s Swan Energy to divest LNG terminal to Turkey’s Botas for $399 million
Swan Energy Ltd. plans to sell its 51% stake in a floating LNG terminal to Turkey’s Botas for $399 million. The deal, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval, comes after delays in commissioning the terminal due to the pandemic and a cyclone.
Sheersh KapoorAugust 15, 2024, 3:42:34 PM IST (Published)
Swan Energy Ltd., an Indian multinational conglomerate with diverse interests, is set to sell its stake in a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal to Turkey’s state-run Botas for $399 million.
The Mumbai-based company disclosed the transaction in a stock exchange filing, noting that the deal is expected to be finalized within the next six months, pending approval from both shareholders and regulatory authorities.
The floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), known as Vasant 1, has a capacity of 180,000 cubic meters. Swan Energy, through its subsidiary Triumph Offshore Pvt., owns a 51% stake in the unit, while the remaining 49% is controlled by Indian fertilizer giant IFFCO.
It is currently unclear whether IFFCO plans to sell its portion of the unit as well, as spokespeople from both companies have not yet provided comments on this matter.
The terminal was initially intended to commence operations at Jafrabad port on India’s west coast during the 2019-2020 period. However, its commissioning faced setbacks due to delays in port facility construction, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and a cyclone that struck in 2022, as detailed in Swan Energy’s annual reports.
Despite these delays, the FSRU was delivered by Hyundai Heavy Industries Shipyard in September 2020 and has been chartered to Botas since January 2023.
India currently operates seven land-based LNG terminals, but five of these facilities are running at less than 50% capacity. This underperformance is attributed to weaker demand and a shortage of pipelines connecting these terminals to the national gas grid, further complicating the country’s energy infrastructure.
The sale of Swan Energy’s stake in the floating LNG terminal reflects ongoing shifts in the global energy landscape and highlights the challenges facing LNG infrastructure in India.
Rakesh Arora Steel Industry Presentation, 2023 (16-08-2024)
Hi @Rakesh_Arora , What do you think on this commentary which is doing the rounds now?
What is the impact going to be for Indian steel companies due to Chinese dumping ?
Do you think the value added players stand to get benefitted from the slump in prices ?
The world’s biggest steel producer sounded the alarm about a crisis in China that carries the potential to send global shock waves, warning of a deeper industry downturn than major traumas in 2008 and 2015.
Conditions in China are like a “harsh winter” that will be “longer, colder and more difficult to endure than we expected,” China Baowu Steel Group Corp. chairman Hu Wangming told staff at company’s half-year meeting.
Global investors are lasered onto China’s struggling economy, even as they also contemplate the possibility of a recession in the US, with the Federal Reserve moving toward interest rate cuts. For commodities including steel, the warning from Baowu underscores risks to demand and prices, as well as what ArcelorMittal SA, the industry No. 2, called an “aggressive” surge of exports from China.
China’s steel market — by far the world’s largest — is flashing multiple warning signs as the protracted property downturn shows no signs of ending, while factory activity remains subdued. Baowu alone produces about 7% of the world’s steel, and its commentary is closely tracked to guage the market mood in the Asian nation.
Hu’s stark message will likely be a worry for rivals across Asia, Europe and North America as they grapple with a fresh wave of Chinese exports, often by pushing for trade measures. Shipments from China are on track to reach about 100 million tons this year, the highest since 2016, as producers there scramble to offset a domestic slowdown.
German steel giant ThyssenKrupp AG on Wednesday highlighted the industry’s challenges by reporting a big slump in earnings. Earlier this month, ArcelorMittal said China’s rising exports had put the global market in an “unsustainable” condition.
Iron ore futures in Singapore fell as much as 3.4% to $95.20 a ton, the lowest level since May last year. The rout in steel markets was even more marked, with rebar futures in Shanghai plunging more than 4% to the cheapest level since 2017. BHP, which gets much of its revenues selling iron ore to China, fell nearly 3%.
Read More: China Steel Sector’s Malaise Deepens With No Relief in Sight
China’s country’s steel industry suffered devastating slumps during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, and again in 2015-2016. In both cases, the crises were ultimately resolved by massive stimulus — a prospect that looks more remote in 2024 as President Xi Jinping bids to reshape the economy.
Baowu didn’t offer much on the causes of the current downturn, focusing on how employees should respond: by preserving cash and minimizing risks.
Action construction equipment ltd (16-08-2024)
Do you suspect this to be the total order value 6/8 CR + 60/70 CR = 66/78 CR?