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Posts in category Value Pickr
Harnessing the Sun: The Benefits of Solar Water Heaters (24-06-2024)
Five Star Business Finance – Financing Bharat! (24-06-2024)
For your first question, based on my understanding, Book Value gives an understanding of how much capital does the entity have. In cases of financial institutions, it gives an idea of how much they can lend (I think RBI gives the definition of how much leverage one can do based on the book value).
So as book value increases the entity can get more leverage and accordingly lend more. This brings in more volume lead yield.
In some sense, AUM growth is also linked to the book value as well as the equity. Since equity is part of what is being lent.
So, if we know the rate at which the AUM grows or book value (ROA) is growing, we can understand how much more leverage is possible in future. So you’ll see expected P/B forcast being done.
An eg: If current P/B is 2 but historically the entity traded at P/B of 3 we can say (after more analysis on P/E, ROA, etc) that the firm maybe undervalued.
Hope I clarified your doubt. Also, please correct me if I’m wrong. I’ve just started learning the finance sector.
Cheers
Kontor Space Limited (24-06-2024)
Great Analysis on Kontor Space @Ashar_Mann
I have some off the topic question on QMS Medical, I wanted to understand why had you mentioned it an potential red flag?
Could you please share any insights on QMS Medical?
Thanks
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (24-06-2024)
Higher sugar stocks were mainly the results of lower sales quota granted in the Q4 of last year. Don’t you see any chances for increase of sales quota for Q1 and resulting higher sales and higher profits as prices have more or less remained firm? Also do you have any idea of overall capacity of grain based ethanol in the country? Suppose the government keeps the restriction of ethanol produced from B heavy molasses intact, is it possible to meet the target of 20% blending in 1 year. (Is the production capacity of grain based and multi feed distillery in the country enough to meet these targets?)
Ola Electric after FAME subsidy reduction (24-06-2024)
There is another concern - the competitive concern. You already see TVS (52%) and Bajaj (22%) recording good retail growth compared to Ola (9.3%). Hero VIDA not that impressive in terms of numbers yet. Ola has sustained itself with huge discounts and pricing and qualifying for PLI schemes will also help them.
But the biggest upheaval in the market will come when Activa Electric is introduced. After Activa Electric has been in the market for a while only we will know which way things are going. HMSI has a strangle hold on the Scooter market (42% Activa, 6% Dio) and if Activa Electric is priced competitively they will be able to get a good conversion of customers from ICE to Electric.
Also, EV will only hit 25-30% of the market if Honda releases Activa Electric by then. Without that release, EV will not be 30% of the overall 2W market unless there is some kind of government intervention.
FAME subsidy is already gone. The new subsidy is called EMPS and is based on battery capacity. That also ends on June 30th, we have to wait for new budget.
Another factor to consider is that Bhavish Aggarwal might be spreading himself thin, you have Ola Mobility, Ola Electric, and now their new AI venture is there. Ola Electric is also looking at car space which is a different beast all together.
Suryoday small finance bank (24-06-2024)
Ujjivan in its analyst day warned of sytem wise stress. Suryoday for long is guiding for 2% credit cost as new normal. Looks like next one year will be time correction for all MFI stocks till market adjust to their new credit cost. Their Yields already factor in high credit cost and Suryoday in particular has CGFMU cover too [credit insurance cover] so it should be well protected for credit cost beyond 3%. x.com
Smallcap momentum portfolio (24-06-2024)
I just put money today itself in vishwanath sir strategy…let’s see what I can learn from this… I am into market for 1 year or so read quite number of books still didn’t understand the concept of valuation like how do you get an idea of how much value a stock holds for long term?
Nykaa – The Make Up Company (24-06-2024)
Two important business models I learnt recently from Nykaa :
- Creating demand through customer education where the intent to purchase a product in already visible:
Eg. Indian customers are increasingly focused on improving their lifestyles. For instance, when it comes to skincare routines, understanding which products to use based on skin type, how to use them, and when to use them is crucial. However, many people feel confused about product choices, leading to delays or neglect in using beauty products. Nykaa, a market leader in the organized beauty retail sector, has taken proactive steps to educate customers. They engage influencers, organize virtual and physical demo sessions, and implement other initiatives to guide customers effectively, eventually leading to higher sales.
- Should we educate the customer for free?
In Adam Grant’s book “Give and Take,” he highlights an intriguing concept: for eg. when a person or platform provides free education/goods/services, recipients often feel obligated. This psychological tendency increases the likelihood that they’ll return and make a purchase from the same platform/vendor/company which inturn results into higher revenue.
Notably, India remains an underpenetrated market for beauty product consumption. Currently, India’s per capita beauty product consumption stands at $15 annually, significantly lower than the $250 per person per annum in developed markets like UK and USA. However, with the increasing participation of women in the workforce, there is substantial potential for a significant surge in demand within this space.
Technical indicators to predict stock price in long term (24-06-2024)
Predicting stock prices in the long term involves a combination of technical indicators, fundamental analysis, and sometimes quantitative models. Here are some key technical indicators and methods often used to predict long-term stock prices:
1. Moving Averages (MA)
- Simple Moving Average (SMA): Average stock price over a specific period. Common periods are 50-day and 200-day.
- Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Gives more weight to recent prices. It responds more quickly to price changes.
2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
- MACD Line: Difference between the 26-day EMA and the 12-day EMA.
- Signal Line: 9-day EMA of the MACD Line.
- A bullish signal occurs when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, and a bearish signal when it crosses below.
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Measures the speed and change of price movements.
- Values range from 0 to 100. An RSI above 70 typically indicates overbought conditions, while below 30 indicates oversold.
4. Bollinger Bands
- Consist of a middle band (SMA) and two outer bands (standard deviations away from the SMA).
- Stock prices moving towards the upper band indicate overbought conditions, while moving towards the lower band indicates oversold conditions.
5. On-Balance Volume (OBV)
- Combines price and volume to show how volume is flowing in or out of a stock.
- Increasing OBV typically indicates a bullish trend, while decreasing OBV indicates a bearish trend.
6. Fibonacci Retracement Levels
- Used to identify potential support and resistance levels.
- Common retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%.
7. Ichimoku Cloud
- Consists of five lines that provide insight into trend direction, support and resistance, and momentum.
- The cloud (Kumo) itself identifies current and future support/resistance areas.
8. Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse)
- Plots dots above or below the price to indicate potential reversal points.
- When the dots are below the price, it suggests an uptrend; above the price suggests a downtrend.
9. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
- Calculated by taking the total dollar value of trading in a security and dividing it by the total volume over a specific period.
- Used as a trading benchmark to determine the general direction of a stock’s price movement.
Combining Technical Indicators with Fundamental Analysis
- Earnings Reports: Analyzing quarterly and annual earnings, revenue growth, profit margins, and other key financial metrics.
- Economic Indicators: Inflation rates, interest rates, GDP growth, and unemployment rates.
- Industry Trends: Understanding sector-specific dynamics and competitive positioning.
Quantitative Models
- Machine Learning Models: Using historical data to train models that predict future price movements.
- Statistical Methods: Regression analysis, ARIMA models, and other statistical techniques to forecast prices.
Long-term Investment Strategies
- Buy and Hold: Investing in fundamentally strong companies with the intention of holding for the long term.
- Dividend Growth Investing: Focusing on companies with a strong track record of paying and increasing dividends.
- Value Investing: Identifying undervalued stocks with the potential for long-term appreciation.
Risk Management
- Diversifying your portfolio to mitigate risk.
- Regularly reviewing and adjusting your portfolio based on changing market conditions and personal investment goals.
By combining these technical indicators with fundamental analysis and a solid investment strategy, you can improve your ability to predict long-term stock price movements.