This statement of Bhavish, is largely accurate. What do you think?

Its been a journey of parallel channels for Natco Pharma share price and one believes that it will continue to tread within the broad confines of the longer term monthly channel

Price has now found the resistance area of the channel which started from the lows of the covid (in blue). However, with the earnings on lenalidomide still some 15-18 months away from reaching peak levels, atleast in volume terms, by that time the street should hear expected positive news on some of the points listed below:

• new successful para IV filings and launches from existing tentative or final approved list,
• fixing the usfda cloud over kothur formulations plant,
• traction on the much anticipated brownfield acquisition,
• their CAR T investment growing into something tangible in value terms,
• substantial increase in foreign subsidiary business
• domestic formulation sales getting boost due to possible semalglutide launch
• scaling up of crop health science business
  therefore looking at the hanging man on WCB I believe that whether for profit booking or geo political or general broader market sentiment it can correct in the immediate shorter term, however, the bullish thesis remains for the fundamental reasons enumerated above… The first target from here seems to be around 2500 which can be plotted either by box breakout (from 2017 highs) or a rounding bottom (from 2021 highs) or simply the width of the blue parallel channel if and when it breaks out…

The principle of polarity suggests that price may not close below the line plotted by taking the highs of 2017 and 2021 (the pink dotted line) this area should be our longer term stop loss and a time to revisit the bullish thesis

The NSE listing criteria is not met yet it seems

Capacity Expansion At Ankleshwar Plant Completed

Q1FY25 Concall Summary

Business Updates

• Volume growth was 3% yoy in Q1FY25
• The mix of footwear has shifted to an extent towards open footwear due to the warmer temperatures
• The ASP stood at Rs 585 in Q1 driven by higher saliency in open footwear

Participants

Vallum Capital

Ambit Capital

Kotak Securities

Motila Oswal

Philip Capital

White pine Investment

QnA

• For MBO in distribution there have been consecutive quarters of volume growth. In online the market place segment has grown by 20% plus. The retail channel in offline EBO’s have seen growth of 8% yoy
• The D2C online segment is showing a degrowth of 5% because apart from marketplace other segments have de grown
• The strategy remains to keep expanding on the touch points. The overall ASP’s have dropped due to much higher share of open footwear category and this is seasonal
• The ASP should not go up in a meaningful manner in FY25
• The whole sports and athleisure category is the fastest growing segment and the anticipation is that there should be double digit growth in this segment in FY25 as well
• The company currently holds inventory of 60-80 days in the distribution channel and that is largely in line with earlier trends
• The higher employee costs is due to higher headcount in front line staff at distribution centers and stores
• The ratio of franchisee stores to company owned at 70:30 shall be maintained going forward
• There are markets in South India and West India that is being actively pursued in terms of new store openings
• The imports from China are largely curtailed and there has been a positive impact with the BIS norms coming in place and it is just a matter of the inventory in stock getting liquidated by this season as the deadline is June 2025 for non BIS
• The companies with turnover of Rs 50 crores do not fall in the BIS guidelines but the endeavor of the government is to keep everyone under the bracket
• Open footwear is a seasonal category selling mostly in Q1 and this will be a strategic category going forward with much better efforts from next year onwards
• The discounting from private smaller players is quite high and a lot of this is also from the liquidation of non BIS inventory
• The portfolio of sneakers have grown by 120% yoy and this is one of the key areas in terms of growth levers for the company along with women’s and kids category
• LFS is a fast growing channel but since it is a nascent contributor to the total revenue it is a complete white space and the idea is to keep adding strong partners on board
• In terms of apparels it is a big category and will take some time before which the management will think of entering. As of now only focused on accessories