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Posts in category Value Pickr
Rajesh’s portfolio (05-08-2024)
Looks very promising indeed ! sales from last 3-4 months have really picked up…
Techknowgreen Solutions – Microcap in need of the hour business (05-08-2024)
interesting view point. need to dig deeper to see if there is more to it than meets the eye. will try to see if i get some insights into this point.
Unlisted Shares (05-08-2024)
Can this be of any help!! Kindly see.
RACL Geartech Limited (05-08-2024)
My view on the inventory build-up.
Think of RACL’s products, they are gear / gear blanks. They need to supply to the customer throughout the year, however the demand for a single SKU is not significant that they can have a Just in time sort of a process. [ refer to Sahil’s post ].
So they have a batch process where they make 10000-20000 such gears and and that gets sold over a year based on customer forecast. They also ( apparently ) keep the inventory near the customer location so the the customer does not have to wait for a incredible amount of time in case of a demand surge ( can go to upwards of 2 months). They carry the inventory on behalf of the customer and the customer is also delighted . What is important for a RACL type business is if Tier 1/ OEM start to engage with them at the design stage itself for building such relationship and maintaining quality. In the auto space this relationship is a superb moat.
Disc. Have a small position in RACL .
A Journal of my mistakes (05-08-2024)
Buying Jupiter wagon at 345 but according to valuation it seen overvalued Without seeing result I m sell stock. In small profit.
2- Cochin shipyard sell due to overvalued.
3- study zen tech at 180 but buying very small quantity.
Is Suzlon a turnaround story after FY16 (05-08-2024)
Suzlon Q1 FY25.pdf (5.8 MB)
On Con call,
Question on execution: Sir, can you just elaborate on what exactly are these difficulties that we are facing in execution?
Answer : 1. why we are not able to go up to 8 GW, 9 GW is fundamentally the two or two reasons we can say. One is the availability of land and the pathways. And more importantly, continuous availability of pathways. You might have taken a pathway to take your turbine and everything, but after you’ve taken it, then again, there could be issues locally with people to do that. Because please understand that wind projects are scattered by. They are in an open area; they are not in a closed area like what you do solar or you do a fossil fuel-based plant. So, that’s the major concern today everybody is facing in terms of the land and also because most projects got concentrated in Karnataka today. So, therefore there is more pressure there and also the regulations in Karnataka for land acquisition is a very combustion process.
2.Second reason why we are saying execution is in terms of connectivity is one reason where the substations there are timelines to come in, there’s a delay in the substation coming up by a few months. So, therefore that gets delayed.
3.Third is that the BOP capability building, capacity building is still happening in the
country, because no other OEM does end-to-end exceptional Suzlon . And even in our case, only one-third is EPC, the balance two-third is not EPC. That means we are not doing end-to-end. The third-party BOP capacity building is still happening. So, therefore they’re seeing the delays of BOP not in the speed at which is expected.
Q2 : Global peer is looking to sell its India business (Siemens Energy Business). So, will we be looking to acquire?
Siemens Energy to sell Indian wind turbine unit amid profitability push (moneycontrol.com)
Answer: First part of it, are you looking at it? We are looking at it, like everybody looking at it we are looking at it. Are we looking at it to acquire? I don’t think so. Let’s see that what happens. There is no definitive answer of yes or no for that.
Arvind limited – a triple play of RM tailwinds & brand growth (04-08-2024)
Arvind Limited Q1 FY2025 Analysis: Key takeaways!!
Arvind Limited demonstrated resilience in Q1 FY2025 despite facing significant challenges, including a 21-day strike at its Santej facility and the impact of general elections. The company maintains a positive outlook for the rest of the year, projecting double-digit growth. The textile segment, particularly garmenting, and the Advanced Materials Division (AMD) are expected to drive growth.
Strategic Initiatives:
- Verticalization and “One Arvind” strategy to enhance customer confidence and expand relationships.
- Capacity expansion in garmenting and AMD divisions.
- Focus on sustainability, evidenced by an A- rating for water from the Carbon Disclosure Project.
- Investments in deskilling and automation to reduce labor dependency.
Trends and Themes:
- Shift towards higher-value products in the AMD segment.
- Increasing demand for technical textiles in various sectors.
- Growing importance of sustainability in the textile industry.
Industry Tailwinds:
- Strong demand in key customer segments.
- Expanding opportunities in technical textiles and advanced materials.
- Growing focus on domestic manufacturing in India.
Industry Headwinds:
- Labor challenges, as evidenced by the recent strike.
- Inflationary pressures affecting wage expectations.
- Global economic uncertainties impacting demand.
Analyst Concerns and Management Response:
-
Concern: Impact of the strike on annual performance.
Response: Management expects to partially make up for the loss in the coming quarters, especially in AMD. -
Concern: Garment realization not improving despite volume growth.
Response: Management explained this is due to product mix changes, with higher growth in lower-priced knit garments. -
Concern: Leadership change in AMD division.
Response: Management assured continuity with existing second-line leadership and Punit Lalbhai’s interim oversight.
Competitive Landscape:
AMD faces competition from international players in high-value segments and Asian manufacturers in commoditized products. The textile segment competes with numerous domestic and international players. Arvind’s established relationships and technical expertise provide competitive advantages.
Guidance and Outlook:
- Double-digit overall revenue growth for FY2025.
- AMD division expected to grow by 20%.
- Textile segment projected to grow by 10%+.
- Garmenting volume target of approximately 40 million pieces for FY2025.
Capital Allocation Strategy:
- FY2025 capex plan of INR 450 crores, with 40% allocated to AMD, 35% to garmenting, and the remainder for strategic projects and maintenance.
- Focus on capacity expansion and strategic investments rather than debt reduction in FY2025.
Opportunities & Risks:
Opportunities:
- Expansion in technical textiles and advanced materials markets.
- Growing customer base in garmenting.
- Potential for value unlocking in the AMD division.
Risks:
- Labor relations and potential for future disruptions.
- Dependence on key customers in certain segments.
- Global economic uncertainties affecting demand.
Regulatory Environment:
The company operates in a complex regulatory environment, particularly in defense and mass transport segments. Compliance with labor laws and sustainability regulations is crucial.
Customer Sentiment:
Customer sentiment appears positive, with strong order books and expanding relationships. The company is adding new customers and deepening engagements with existing ones.
Top 3 Takeaways:
- Resilient performance despite significant challenges, with a positive outlook for the rest of FY2025.
- Strong growth expected in garmenting and AMD divisions, driven by capacity expansion and new customer acquisitions.
- Focus on sustainability and automation to address long-term challenges and opportunities in the industry.
Small cap investing (04-08-2024)
@rats You can start reading about the companies in Smallcap 100 index. It would be easy if you can find business that you have already been exposed to or you understand easily. Develop a circle of competence.
What to read? Read at least last three years annual reports and concall. For more information drill some data from web. And so on…
Happy investing
Vasa Denticity aka Dentalkart – The Indian Amazon of Dental supplies ?! (04-08-2024)
Q4 FY24-
SME company doing PPT and concall
This growth is driven by an increasing awareness of the oral health, higher disposable income, and the rise of multispeciality hospitals offering comprehensive dental care.
Sir, currently, there are around 3,20,000 approx. registered dentists in the country. Apart from that, we expect more than 1,00,000 unregistered dentists in the country. There are more than 1,00,000 dental students in the country. And then, there are 352 dental colleges, more than 5,000 dental laboratories. These all are the Total addressable markets (TAM)(Huge TAM available)
in next 3 years- 500-600cr revenue
in next 5 years- 800-1200cr revenue(70% CAGR)
Total brands onboarded was 450 plus brands in this year, compared to 330 brands in FY ‘23. Our customer retention has increased from 68% to 76% year-on-year.
new operational warehouses in Mumbai, Nagpur, Kolkata, and Guwahati .This will take delievery time from 5.5 days to 4.5 days and our aim is of reaching 2 days
The total order growth was 4,30,574 in FY ‘24, compared to 3,16,748 in FY ‘23, a year-on-year 36% increase.
Grow 40% as against the guidance of 70% because a lot of international companies have not been able to register themselves in the new drug license policy in India. So, this will subside this year and we expect those revenues to come back in this financial year.
Investing in cloud, warehouse automation and heavily on technology to reduce the time.
When we have a mother warehouse in Gurgaon, it is highly optimized and automated.
11cr receivables are showing wrong bcz they were COD orders and our delivery boys collected that money.
So, we expect a good growth from Baldus (have exclusive rights, not only use in dentist but also in other industries as well , Sedation system not only is used in the dentistry, but it is also used in derma, hematology and a few other segments of the medical end. )in this financial year. Last year, I think it was under INR2 crores sales from Baldus overall. So, there is not much significant contribution from that.
we have exclusive rights to distribute them in the Indian market to help us in marketing the product and training the doctors and the employees. And if needed, they provide the certification of nitrous oxide training to the doctors. That is the reason we are responsible for developing the market and making this
our own branded products or white label(china se import karke apna label lagakar bechna)contribute to 54% sales which is high margin business
So, 80% of the orders we need to be delivered faster. So, one of the opportunities that we have opened our own warehouses, we’re going near the customer and trying to deliver the products faster
From the total online sales we do, 98% of that sale comes from the individual dental practitioners and 2% comes from the hospitals. So the hospital business is more of a credit-based business, which we are trying to evaluate this year and trying to tie up with a good financial partner who can provide credit to them.
So we don’t see a large growth on EBITDA margins in the short run, but in the long run definitely if 70% of the sales comes from our own brands and a lot of exclusive brands, we see a good EBITDA numbers in the future.
We have to study the data how it is working out and depending on that we will ultimately decide that if we have to open smaller warehouses in cities like Chennai, Kochi, maybe Lucknow, Jammu. So these small cities we have to see in the future, but that will all depend on the data we’ll have from the current warehouses.
we are currently not looking to manufacture anything. But yes, in future we are looking to assemble some of the items which are difficult to be imported in India. So we’ll keep a small assembly line for those products.
Yes, in the long term, we are looking to go beyond India, but in the short term next 2 years, 3 years our focus is only India because it’s a big market and we have a long way to go.
B2C I think is 90% of the business and B2B and B2G together contribute 10%
And currently, for a very few number of dentists, we are the primary source ofbuying the dental products. Like most of the products, the people who are in the Tier-3, Tier-4 cities. For Tier-1 cities and most of the Tier-2 cities, we are the secondary source of purchase currently. And we are looking to go up the ladder and become the primary source by providing all the values which I mentioned a few minutes back.
Secondary source. Majority of the revenue is coming from a large number of customers who are keeping us as a secondary source because they are not able to find the products locally or they are able to find a lot of new products on our website which they want to buy again and again.
For example, a dentist purchases products worth 40,000 consumables in a quarter. So the most common consumables like the dental stone or alginate, they prefer to buy from their local dealer. But some products worth maybe 5,000, 6,000, they prefer to buy on DentalKart, which they are not able to find locally. So this is the current situation. And we know the situation, and we have a target to get that 40,000 worth of revenue from every dentist. And we are trying to find ways to support it, and this also shows in our presentation.
We are going to have more orders from the same set of customers we currently have. That is one of the parameters. Then we will be expanding our catalog, our product range. We’ll be doing strategic marketing to acquire new customers. So, currently, we have served half of the dentists of India. But we have not served them fully. It was a minuscule level of sales to the number of people we have currently serviced. So, if there are 90,000 doctors who bought our products last year, we want to get into their clinic and provide them with the right set of values, so that they can buy everything from us. So there, we see a 10x upside from the same set of customers.
Sir, if we decide to launch B2C products for which these market places are accustomed, Amazon, Flipkart, if we launch B2C products like mouthwashes or toothpaste or many other oral care products for the B2C segment, we will look at listing our products there. But for our products which are meant for Dentist, there is an access issue to list our products there. And we want to keep the exclusivity within B2C 68:40