Hello Sir @visuarchie ,
By understanding your strategy , I remembered the then famous trader NICOLAS DARVAS ,
I hope you know him
Thanks
Posts in category Value Pickr
Smallcap momentum portfolio (04-08-2024)
Neuland Laboratories Limited – Transformation towards niche APIs? (04-08-2024)
The long-term outlook for Neuland appears highly promising, as the company plans to commence utilization of its third plant by the last quarter of 2025, initially operating at 20 to 30% capacity for CMS , which is expected to significantly boost its production capabilities and growth prospects.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (04-08-2024)
Thank you very much sir
Maharashtra seamless-a value plus cyclical play (04-08-2024)
Hi, anybody have any idea why the CFO has been changed recently.
Pretty unusual for a company to have 4 CFO change in less than 3 years.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (04-08-2024)
@stuti_agarwal My view – you should be happy to invest in companies at 52wh high or ATH. If you want to make money, you want companies to grow and break old records. Otherwise, there is no growth.
No, I have not tried mid week. If one does it mid week, you are prone to spikes and might miss out proper moves. That is why we have look backs of 6m and 1y.
A weekly rebalance itself involves a lot of churn. Monitoring it more often, might lead to higher churn.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (04-08-2024)
@visuarchie I have been tracking NUVAMA since last week and it has given a big rally already, adding it next week, means adding at an ATH, is that ok?
And, have you tried monitoring the ranking daily or twice a week, rather than end of the week? If yes, did you feel any difference?
Neuland Laboratories Limited – Transformation towards niche APIs? (04-08-2024)
Overall long term view for Neuland :
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Company is net debt free (long term as well as short term) as it is having casah more than borrowings.
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Company is generating around 75 Cr free cash flow every quarter.
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The free cash flow generated by the Company is sufficient to take care of maintenance capex as well as growth CAPEX.
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Management has proven its integrity and is having a very good sense of efficient Capital allocation.
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Management track record is of being very conservative/efficient for CAPEX.
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Management had historically been conservative in giving future guidance.
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Business has over a period of time has evolved for high margin business.
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Management has a very focussed approach and clarity about future business.
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Management is constantly evolving itself to adapt to the new business enviorment.
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Managment is well aware of the various kind of risk involved in the business and is constantly monitoring and reviewing the same.
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There is a sector tailwind and company is well positioned and adequately capitalized and leveraged to take advantage of the same. Company is well positioned to fund its growth from all means internal accruals, Equity, Debt. Interanl accrauls are sufficient to take care of 15 to 20% growth for 5 to 6 years.
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CDMO sector has a very long run way and visibility for at least 10 years.
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Track record of the Company has given it a recognition in the CDMO sector and this is going to further evolve and improve in coming years.
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Commercialization of some key molecules in next 12 to 24 months will further establish the brand image of Neuland and more molecules may come for development from existing as well as new molecules.
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Approval and commercialization of block buster drug KARXT in Sept 24 will be a big booster for the Company both in terms of revenue as well as establishing its credibility in the CDMO sector.
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Neuland has been associated with Karuna Theuraptics for development of KARXT drug. Acquisitinon of Karuna Therauptics by Bristol Myer was mainly for the single drug KARXT. Bristol Mayer is very big name in big pharma and going forward in next 5 years , we can see sourcing of development of new molecules to Neuland not only from small Biotech Companies but also from big pharma. Market cap of Bristol Myer is around USD 100 Billion.
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DII holding is very less at around 6.39 % and will give support during any major downfall.
Disclosure: Invested and views are fully biased. Holding for last 3 years and will hold for next 5 years from here.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (04-08-2024)
Not sure where the error is coming from as the look back dates are fine.
I think you are missing something on the 6m look back. For example, DOMS has the 7th rank on 6m and combined with (12m date of 12/12/2023 only) has a ranking of 19.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (04-08-2024)
Ok, will add look back dates next week onwards. This week, look backs considered are
1y – 04/08/2023
6m – 02/02/2024
Torrent Power (04-08-2024)
Torrent Power Q1 FY’25 Analysis: Key takeaways!!
Torrent Power reported a strong quarter with PBT increasing 85% year-over-year to Rs. 1,315 crores. The company’s performance was primarily driven by substantial gains from merchant power sales and LNG trading. The management expressed optimism about the favorable demand-supply dynamics in the electricity market, which is benefiting generators like Torrent Power.
Strategic Initiatives:
- Renewable Energy Expansion: Torrent Power is aggressively expanding its renewable energy portfolio with 3 GW of projects in the pipeline, including solar, wind, and hybrid projects.
- Transmission Projects: The company is developing two transmission projects – Khavda and Solapur – to diversify its business mix.
- Green Hydrogen: Torrent Power is venturing into green hydrogen with a pilot project for CNG blending and has secured an allocation of 18 KTPA under the SECI PLI scheme.
- Pump Storage Hydro: The company has identified sites with 8.4 GW potential for pump storage hydro projects in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.
Trends and Themes:
- Increasing focus on renewable energy and green hydrogen
- Diversification into transmission projects
- Leveraging merchant power opportunities in a favorable market
Industry Tailwinds:
- Strong electricity demand growth (6-7% in distribution areas)
- Limited investment in thermal capacity, creating opportunities for existing players
- Moderation in global LNG prices, improving profitability for gas-based power plants
Industry Headwinds:
- Regulatory uncertainties around merchant power sales
- Potential volatility in LNG prices
- Increasing competition in renewable energy auctions
Analyst Concerns and Management Response:
- Sustainability of merchant power gains: Management highlighted that opportunities exist in summer and pre-winter months, but declined to provide specific guidance.
- LNG procurement strategy: The company is evaluating long-term contracts while maintaining flexibility for merchant operations.
- Renewable energy project delays: Management assured that project timelines are linked to PPA signing, mitigating execution risks.
Competitive Landscape:
Torrent Power faces competition from other large power generators and renewable energy developers. However, its diversified portfolio and strong balance sheet position it well in the market.
Guidance and Outlook:
The management expressed confidence in continued growth driven by renewable capacity addition, merchant power opportunities, and expansion into new areas like green hydrogen and pump storage hydro.
Capital Allocation Strategy:
The company plans to invest Rs. 20,000 crores over the next 3-4 years, primarily in renewable energy and transmission projects. Additionally, it is open to acquiring quality thermal assets at reasonable valuations.
Opportunities & Risks:
Opportunities:
- Expansion in renewable energy and green hydrogen
- Merchant power sales during peak demand periods
- Potential acquisitions in the thermal power sector
Risks:
- Regulatory changes affecting merchant power sales
- Execution risks in large renewable and hydro projects
- Volatility in LNG prices impacting gas-based power plant profitability
Regulatory Environment:
The company is navigating various regulatory frameworks, including Section 11 directives for power sales, renewable energy auctions, and emerging regulations for green hydrogen.
Customer Sentiment:
Strong demand growth in distribution areas (6-7%) indicates positive customer sentiment and economic activity in Torrent Power’s service areas.
Top 3 Takeaways:
- Exceptional growth in merchant power sales driving near-term profitability
- Aggressive renewable energy expansion with 3 GW pipeline
- Strategic diversification into green hydrogen and pump storage hydro projects