Hi all,
the stock has been doing very well in the recent past, are there any thoughts on this? what has changed in the sector?
Hi all,
the stock has been doing very well in the recent past, are there any thoughts on this? what has changed in the sector?
@visuarchie will post the sheet, but do not stop your work also. Understand how the whole thing works and go forward, because there could be losses too, not just profits. And, you can also add your own features to the sheet, and make it better.
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Please find below the updated sheet as requested by one of the members.
I have removed the formulae for bhav copy integration as the url will be different when every person does his own integration.
Line 451 contains the formula to pull data directly as suggested by @Anand_Jain. Though I did not use it this week, I might use it in future. People are free to check it out.
Update for entry on 24th June 2024
50 EMA (15801) is > 200 EMA (14150); hence, we can continue without any change.
Based on ranking:
Based on A → Z for easy tracking:
Exit:
APARINDS and SWSOLAR remain within the top 25 and hence stay.
Entry:
ARE&M and GPIL cannot enter as there is no vacancy.
No change this week.
Fyi, this week I have updated the sheet based on bhav copy integration.
Change in name to Equinox India Developments Ltd
Hello
I am sharing my calculations for manappuram and Asirwad,
I have been very considerable in my calculations and exits.
Risks -
There was a steep rise in GNPA QoQ in asirwad and in Q4 they took about 150 crs and in FY24 460 crs of impairments and provisions , even after this their NNPA is at 1.7 % - compared to other MFI the number is on the higher side.
If the Credit costs increase then it can impact the profitability of the company and my calculations
Happy Investing To All
Views are Welcome
Disc - Invested
Thanku for uploading sheet tomorrow sir. I copy pasted 2 yrs data of ageislog I have spent hours correcting each stock manually looking at there data of closing price and matching it.my sheet is very stable overall on Google finance itself. But yea I didn’t know about bonus and others so now it’s of no point as you are sending me new sheet, I am waiting for new sheet…
My overall impressions from FY24 results:
Divestment - After small divestment in West Asia (Middle East region), no more selling of overseas business expected in FY25. India facilities/land will be consolidated and some real estate may be sold with proceeds mostly used to pay off still considerable debt. With prolonged due diligence activity for overseas business divestment, I’ll wait for final figures on real estate sales, currently no expectation on numbers.
CNG Cascades - FY25 sales expected to be ~80-85% more than FY24 with same % profitability.
While a current customer (Confidence Petroleum) claims to be ready with Type-4 CNG Cascades by this year, it is unknown how near they’re to PESO certification (atleast 1.5 years process). Surprisingly Confidence Petro has good amount of CNG Cascade Type-1 business both stationary/mobile with enterprise customers like BPCL. Not sure if/why Time Techno hasn’t cracked this segment.
LPG - going on BAU mode with expected IOC repeat order (~7.6L) utilizing most realizable capacity of 1M. Similar revenues for FY25 as FY24.
IBC - After revenue growth with big capex last year, expect a slightly smaller growth.
Overall a lot better than expected results, pleasantly surprised that company beat my estimate of 650-675 crores FY24 EBITDA. Expecting ~800-820 crores EBITDA this year, driven more by CNG Cascades expansion playing out + debt reduction leading to lesser interest out-go.
Company had low utilization of LPG Type-4 capacity since 2013 when they launched. While they expanded capacity in 2017, still it took till 2023 for full utilization. Don’t see LPG being growth contributor for atleast another year.
Company has clarified in last cc that currently there’s no hydrogen cascade use-case and they’re just being ready. Not sure if today’s stock jump is just due to hydrogen cascade PESO certification news.
Discl: Invested since 2018, added more till 2023, big part of portfolio both by cost(16.5%) & value (21.6%).
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