OCCL – Chemical Company (This is getting traded, shares would have become 5 fold)
Oriental Carbon… – Investment Company ( Not Getting Traded)
Posts in category Value Pickr
Oriental Carbon and Chemicals Ltd (30-07-2024)
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals (30-07-2024)
Earlier the company used to do business with related party (promoter owned company) MEBL. There was suspicion around it. Then they merged MEBL with itself. The merger was also suspicious. Please read dedicated thread on the company. You will understand how minority shareholders were taken for granted.
https://forum.valuepickr.com/t/associated-alcholols-breweries-ltd/
“There’s never just one cockroach in the kitchen” – Warren Buffett
Basilic Fly Studio Ltd (30-07-2024)
Is BFS still worth adding to the portfolio after continuous upper circuits?
Voltamp Transformers (30-07-2024)
Thanks for the insights Raj. Excellent observation.
My take is commodity prices will be increasing for everyone across Transformer manufacturers so as Voltamp. In the end, this increase will be passed on to the end customer and might take One-two quarter to reflect in books. I am not form this industry hence can’t comment for pricing mechanism.
Still optimistic about the growth of Voltmap as Mgmt know how to use cash without taking debt.
Disc: My own opinion, Invested.
Wonderla Holidays (30-07-2024)
I believe operating leverage has already played out in this business, for them to grow further from here they will require capex to go live and functional parks.
Contrarian Investment : Always looks the other Side (30-07-2024)
UPDATE 1 :-
This is the first update of my study and investments update.
Investment update:-
1: Keep things going well with the same SIP of mutual funds and invest a good amount in old stocks only.
2: I have also added a watch portfolio of Mankind Pharma and Disney.
Screening
I personally do research on 30-40 stocks each year around mid these are ones that I potentially find interesting.
The main Screening techniques used mainly philosophy that I use
- Fast Growth with Opportunity The company’s main focus is growth but it is available at a good valuation according to the growth (Higher Risk).
- Slow growth rebound ie companies that have been slow to move and are cheap and have a great chance to easily rebound back.(Lower Risk)
- Growth Phase ie the company and its stocks are starting to come in their growth phase so can show signs of growth like a sudden spike in FII, DII, a big investment call, and other scenarios of linking product growth.(High Risk)
- Debt restructuring this is an unlock of debt that makes the margin and Profit margin to shoot up and makes the company a great call.(Medium Risk)
- Capex is coming, look for a huge capex story using the same data like large investment and fixed asset increase while sales are the same.(High Risk)
these are the main strategies that I am targeting in this market research will take around 4 months to complete the whole scenario and start with it and might start to invest before as a satellite portfolio in case of investing and increase month by month.
The main stock that comes in 2-4 screenings are mankind pharma, prudent technology, and zen technologies.
- Bajaj Finance
- ICICI Bank
- Mankind Pharma
- SBI Cards
- PI Industries
- Zen Technology
- Ujjivan Finance
- Nirlon
- Tanla
- Happiest Minds
- Titan
- Rain Industries
- MOIL
- Aster DM Health
- L&T Infotech
- Info Edge
- PB fintech
- Jubilant Foodworks
- Blue Star
- Motherson Sumi Systems
- Aegis Logistics
- Coromandel International
- Gland Pharma
- Rosari Boiotech
- HCL tech
- Varun Beverage
- Vardhman Textiles
- Eicher Motors
- Alkem Laboratories
- Tata Motors
- Suven Pharmaceuticals
- Wonderlea
- Navin Fluorine International
- Coforge
- Data Patterns
- Awrinpro Solution
- Prudent Corporate Advisory Services
- Cupid Limited
PDS Limited – A platform for entrepreneurs (30-07-2024)
A great thread on this unique business in India. Many people have contributed diverse views and its helpful for others to understand the business as one go through the thread.
I have known about PDS for some time now. However, today I decided to read more about it. I went through the above 98 comments in this thread. The thread started in Oct ’21. As I went on reading, parallelly I also used screener to see how (financial) performance has moved and how share price has moved.
I always liked the business model of PDS. A unique business in India providing platform to global customers and suppliers. So I wanted to study this company before I decide to invest. (I was almost certain I will invest in this company). After studying this company for past 3 hrs. I am certain, I WON’T invest in it. Why? Because there is no margin of safety in current valuation (downside is not protected) and upside is in imagination. Errr… Management guidance.
My first suspension developed when I read company will start manufacturing operation in Bangladesh. But why? PDS was demerged from Pearl Global to focus on SAAS model whereby manufacturing business remained with latter. Then why go back into the same capital intensive, labour intensive diversification? The logic of “state of the art factories” doesn’t justify starting a vertical from which they were separated in the first place.
For the past 3 yrs (since this thread has started), share price appreciation of ~100% is only because of rerating. There is no increase in profit (profit has actually reduced).
Rerating seems to be because of management guidance of $2.5Bn revenue by FY27 $5bn revenue in 5 yrs (5-5-5 guidance). A game of guidance works wonder in bull market.
For FY24, PAT margin to a laymen investor will look like 2% (i.e. 203 / 10373). However, it seems management think this is 3% after doing some financial calculation. I wonder what will be actual PAT margin when management will say 5% in FY29 (provided they reach there).
In US, they will grow multiple from 0 revenue in FY25 to $800 mn revenue in FY28. I never knew doing business in US is so easy.
A simple business that started as SAAS has spanned out into multiple verticals having too many moving parts.
As a reader, I am sure you will sense sarcasm in this post. My point is, this investment looks good because we are in a bull market. When the tide turns, there might be nothing but memories. I am sure many will not agree with me (and they shouldn’t). But that’s the whole purpose of this forum to have diverse point of view.
Disc: I am a devil’s advocate.
Mrs Bectors Food Specialities: Can it beat the industry? (30-07-2024)
The company would only dilute 5% equity to raise Rs.400cr., instead of leveraging its balance sheet the company is doing QIP to take advantage of elevated market sentiments, I think it would need funds as it’s trying to expand market share in west & east India by green & brown field expansion in its plant & for working capital.
E2E Networks Ltd – Listed small Cloud computing player (30-07-2024)
Company has said till June 2024 have deployed 450 H100(s) and capex in FY24 and Q1FY25 combined is 209 Crores, majority is to procure above chips.
And now in current July 2024 presentation, they have mentioned there is plan to deploy 250 H100(s) in July 2024 i.e., from Q2FY25 Quarter, hence a fair estimate of 100-125 Crores of capex is expected in Q2FY25, which is a good momentum in capex and also shows the growth tailwinds in the industry.
Zen technologies – A micro cap in the defense space! (30-07-2024)
Company’s current o/s order book after Q1 is 901 Crores excluding AMCs.
Company needs to do 645 Crores topline out of current 901 Crores order book o/s to achieve 900 Crores FY25 target, hence even after that company is left with 256 Crores of order with they will deliver in Q1 of FY26.
Hence, in my opinion company has enough time to replenish its order i.e., till June 2025, which is a long-time away.
Company in this time period needs to get orders of 1,094 Crores to do a 50% topline growth in FY26 over FY25 and in my opinion with new product launches, current tailwinds in current established products, company will be able to do that.