Update for entry on 29th July 2024

50EMA (16831) > 200EMA (14854); hence, we can continue without any change.

Based on ranking:

1. COCHINSHIP
2. JAIBALAJI
3. HUDCO
4. GRSE
5. ARE&M
6. POWERINDIA
7. AEGISLOG
8. ANANDRATHI
9. SIGNATURE
10. EXIDEIND
11. GLENMARK
12. KPIL
13. BLUESTARCO
14. SCHNEIDER
15. NBCC
16. DOMS
17. VGUARD
18. 360ONE
19. CENTURYTEX
20. WHIRLPOOL

Based on A → Z for easy tracking:

• 360ONE*
• AEGISLOG
• ANANDRATHI
• ARE&M
• BLUESTARCO
• CENTURYTEX*
• COCHINSHIP
• DOMS
• EXIDEIND
• GLENMARK
• GRSE
• HUDCO
• JAIBALAJI
• KPIL
• NBCC
• POWERINDIA
• SCHNEIDER
• SIGNATURE
• VGUARD
• WHIRLPOOL*

Exits:
None
APARINDS, GODRFYPHLP and JWL stay within the top 25 and hence remain.

Entries:
None
360ONE, CENTURYTEX and WHIRLPOOL cannot enter as there is no vacancy.

@Bhavyesh_Solanki If you see some of my previous messages, you will see that I like to remain invested. As people raised some concerns about this pf falling during downturns, I made some suggestions.

1. It depends on when you entered the pf that will tell you how much downturn you can digest. I have been doing this for over 20 months and built up a healthy XIRR, therefore, I can withstand a fall.
   However, if someone is starting, they might the same difficult.

2. I suggested that if 50 EMA crosses 200 EMA of the index from above, then we are seeing bearish signals. We could shift some portion of our pf to gold or cash. Thereafter, if it remains like that for couple of weeks, we could move completely. Similarly, when 50 EMA crosses 200 EMA from bottom, it might be good time to start investing a portion of the pf. If the trend sustains for a couple of weeks, we could invest our entire money.

These are only suggestions; we should adopt what we are comfortable with.

@Anand_Jain I have actually used Thursday, 25th Jan for my calculations.

Hi Harsh – Fair point to raise.

I would like to judge Suprajit’s acquisitions in the recent past against 3 restraints – 1) the price paid 2) the size of the acquisition and 3) the patience to wait before striking a deal

Let’s look at 1) price restraint and 2) size restraint together

I do not think any of the acquisitions done by Suprajit posed a risk to change the capital structure of the company materially. The price paid was sensible and the size of the acquisition was under check. However, I admit Suprajit did QIP in 2016 which diluted ~ 5% of the equity.

But I believe, Mankind and Eris are going after significantly larger acquisitions and because multiples in branded formulations are higher there is a larger funding gap. This can change the capital structure of the company materially

Point 3) Patience is the interesting one

Suprajit was scouting for acquisition targets since 2012 before they finally acquired phoenix lamps in 2015. Actis (erstwhile promoter) were responsible for “diworsification” into CFL( Compact Fluorescent Lamps ) and looking to get out of the business. Suprajit at the time of acquisition paid Rs 89 / share as against prevailing market price of 110 / share for phoenix lamps

Konsberg Automotive attempted divestment for their control cables business back in 2016 as well. Suprajit was involved in the process but they decided to walk away because of valuations only to acquire same business in 2021 when opportunity came back with favourable valuations

Similarly Suprajit was interested in acquiring Stahlschmidt Cable Systems (SCS) and Ajith rai approached the promoter family back in 2014 – 15 but again deal did not work out. The opportunity arose when SCS went in bankruptcy in 2023

All these points make me believe that future acquisitions of Suprajit will be “sensible” and there are higher chances that they will go after large debt-funded deal or have significant equity dilution