Very disappointing results. Asset quality deteriorating.

Wealth Management profit and revenue did not grow this quarter, mostly likely its due to addition of new 67 RM’s and investment’s in Dubai office, while AUM has grown 10% + QOQ., family offices have grown from 3600 to 3850. which is good enough sign of scaling.

Things to note down for tips industries –

• The company has brought in seasoned management. They have invested in software upgradation.
• The company’s moat is a library of 30,000 songs, which will help them earn for the next 10 years. The major money-makers are 90s songs. The growth will continue to come from revised contracts/ new deals. 30% growth looks unsustainable beyond the next few years. Ultimately, they will converge to the industry growth rate of 14-15% plus or minus 2%.
• With new management, I hope they are taking an analytical approach to content acquisition, making sound assumptions on music’s ability to earn Vs acquisition cost.
• The company’s acquisition cash flow is quite less because they are bound by 30% topline and accruing everything in the same quarter. Whereas, Saregama is aggressive with cash outflow on acquisition. Being conservative, you can be picky on good music. Whereas, being aggressive can lead to a “spray and pray” approach.
• I hope that the company should master their ability to forecast music success. I will be happy if they invest in AI/ ML technologies to do the same.
• The other good thing I am hearing is comany’s focus on quality Vs quantity. You attract more audience with one superhit song Vs multiple flop ones. Also, superhits help you position your portfolio in front of the downstream players.
• I am quite hopeful for aggressive growth in next 3 quarters due to Warner deal. What will be next year’s catalyst? That is the question. If they keep on finding these catalysts, the stock should do good.

Hi, I was an investor in this counter two years ago. I made 30% in six months and exited.

The problem with GTBL is that it’s just a two-trick pony. There are only two products at present. When the 200cr capex will come and how much sales it will generate are the questions for the future.

There are not many optionalities. And if you compare the valuations, it is neck and neck with Giants like Divis, which is not only the largest producer in many APIs but has a large number of molecules (optionalities)

So basically, only 2 molecules and RICH valuations, prevent me from entering this counter.

Just tracking.

dr.vikas

@Mohana_kri Thanks for Sharing you thoughts.
Regarding python code i am also trying from my side to process the raw data.