Most of such heavy engineering and defense have higher revenues in H2. So could be why
Posts in category Value Pickr
Vivek Gautam Portfolio (08-11-2024)
Check out Rajan Raheja group Innovasynth recently reversed merged – CDMO player at 200 mcap – 100 % allocation
Vivek Gautam Portfolio (08-11-2024)
Check out CDMO player Innovasynth reversed merger recently still at 200 crore mcap
Trent — A value unlocking story from the house of TATA (08-11-2024)
@Investor_No_1 You are very right about momentum Investors. I can speak for me. Once it has gone 20% down from ATH ( actually it went 22% down) I was out of the stock as that was one of my exiting criteria. Last 3 months, it didn’t give me any returns…i got out at break-even. I felt bad for selling it. In earlier times , this stock has given me 120% returns, before i started momentum portfolio…it was one of my favourite stock.
Time technoplast (08-11-2024)
The battery portion of the company is too small (both revenue & profits) at the company’s consolidated scale.
In prev conf calls, mgmt was fully intent on selling it off or even let the division’s employees buy it out (my memory is slightly hazy here). Battery division divestment probably got pushed down as mgmt was concentrating on overseas divestment (which has dropped off now).
For now it looks like just consolidation of divisions doing similar work.
I haven’t seen anything in last 6 years of following the company that says the battery division has any great IP/product with potentially competitive scale that can make a difference to company’s fortunes.
Piccadily Agro Industries Ltd (08-11-2024)
This year YT Botted in Origin BIO Imported brand business has degrown by 1 percent while Indian single malts have grown by 15-20 percent and luxury single malts i.e, Amrut Rampur , Indri , Paul John. Gianchand have gained major volumes in Indian markets and growth looks promising smaller base and all companies producing single malts are facing issues in getting aged malts for production . PAIL is one of the largest malt spirits producer in North and they have stopped selling malt spirits to other distilleries/bottling plants and there is serious shortage of malt spirit .So PAIL is in a good position which will benefit them in coming years,
Ola Electric – Full Stack EV play? (08-11-2024)
Disclosure: Not invested as of now, had exited earlier position almost flat. Looking to re-enter at a price which factors in all the negatives.
When asked about customer complaints and quality issues, below was the management’s response (briefed using NotebookLM again 
):
- Ola received a high volume of service requests, with press reports suggesting figures of 80,000 to 90,000 per month. [1, 2] However, the company clarified that these requests were not solely complaints or issues with the product. [2] A large proportion of these requests were for routine checks, scheduled maintenance, and minor issues. [2]
- Ola acknowledged experiencing capacity challenges at their service centres as sales growth outpaced service network expansion. [1, 3] This resulted in a backlog of service requests. [1, 3] Ola stated that they resolved the backlog and increased service capacity. [3] 80% of service requests are now addressed within one day, bringing them in line with industry standards. [3]
- Ola’s product quality is generally in line with industry standards in India and globally, based on defects per 100 vehicles and warranty replacement rates. [4]
- Gen 2 scooters reportedly show better quality than Gen 1, leading to reduced warranty costs. [4] Ola expects further reductions in warranty costs with the Gen 3 scooters. [4] The improvements in Gen 3 include a move to a mid-mounted motor across the platform to reduce quality issues. [4] The company anticipates a tenfold improvement in motor quality alone. [4]
Overall, the sources provide limited information on specific customer complaints. They do indicate that Ola experienced service capacity issues that led to a backlog of requests. However, the company addressed the backlog and stated their product quality is in line with industry standards. They highlight improvements in each generation of their scooters and anticipate further quality enhancements with Gen 3.
(NotebookLM breif ends)
Ola Electric – Full Stack EV play? (08-11-2024)
Ola had an earning call today. Below is a briefing note generated using NotebookLM:
Briefing Doc: Ola Electric Q2 FY25 Earnings Call and Shareholder Letter
Date: 8 November 2024
Sources:
- Ola Electric Q2 FY25 Shareholder Letter (ola.pdf)
- Ola Electric Q2 FY25 Earnings Conference Call Transcript (olaq2.mp3)
Key Highlights:
- Strong Revenue Growth: Ola Electric’s revenue grew 38.5% year-over-year to ₹1,240 crore, driven by increased deliveries (98,619 units) which were up 73.6% YoY.
- Market Leadership Maintained: Ola holds a 33% market share, solidifying its position as the market leader despite aggressive competitive actions in the quarter.
- EV Penetration at Inflection Point: EV scooter penetration surged from 16.1% in June 2024 to 21.4% in September 2024, signaling a significant acceleration in EV adoption.
- Mass Market Portfolio Success: The mass market portfolio (S1X) grew 15% quarter-on-quarter, contributing to broader EV penetration, while the premium portfolio continues to generate the majority of revenue.
- Gross Margin Improvement: Gross margin in the auto segment remained flat QoQ at 20.6% (a 12.5 pp YoY increase) despite increased competition, attributable to BOM cost reductions from the Gen 2 platform.
- Focus on Distribution Expansion: Ola is aggressively expanding its distribution network, targeting 2,000 company-owned stores by March 2025 (up from 782 currently) and 10,000 network partner stores by the end of 2025.
- Gen 3 Platform Accelerated: The launch of the Gen 3 platform, initially planned for August 2025, has been brought forward to January 2025. It is projected to deliver a 20% BOM cost reduction over the next 12 months.
- Cell Production on Track: Ola remains on schedule to integrate in-house cells into its EV products by Q1 FY26, with trial production showing promising results.
- Operating Leverage Focus: Ola aims to keep operating expenses flat or slightly lower while scaling revenue, improving operating leverage.
- Profitability Path: Ola’s roadmap to profitability relies on:
- Steady-state gross margin above 30% even after incentives expire, driven by Gen 3 and in-house cell production.
- Cost-efficient D2C model and controlled operating expenses leading to strong operating leverage.
- Pricing Strategy: Ola will continue to strategically reinvest margin gains into pricing adjustments to drive market penetration and maintain its leading position.
Key Quotes:
- “We have maintained our market leadership with 33% market share during Q2 FY25 despite aggressive competitive action.” – Shareholder Letter
- “EV penetration in India continues to grow. The EV 2W penetration stood at 7.5% for September 2024 compared to 4.0% in April 2024, with EV scooter penetration at 21.4% in September 2024 as compared to 11.3% in April 2024.” – Shareholder Letter
- “Based on our internal estimates, certain states have very high EV scooter penetration such as Rajasthan at almost 47% EV Scooter penetration, and UP, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh at almost 35% penetration reflecting the potential for other states to also get to similar levels of EV penetration in the near term.” – Shareholder Letter
- “Over the next 2 years, we will be launching 20 products, with at least 1 new product launch every quarter.” – Shareholder Letter
- “Our Gen 2 platform launched in August 2023 has enabled us to improve our BOM cost by 22.5%.” – Shareholder Letter
- “Our in-house technology capability across domains like software, motors, cells and electronics, coupled with our vertically integrated manufacturing gives us significant competitive advantage on performance and cost.” – Shareholder Letter
- “We started trial production of our cells in March 2024 and we are on track to use our in-house cells in our EV products starting Q1 FY26.” – Shareholder Letter
- “We expect to see uh almost every quarter a continuous improvement on gross margins” – Bhavish Aggarwal, Earnings Call
- “Our strategy is to uh continue to gun for uh strong penetration and market leadership.” – Bhavish Aggarwal, Earnings Call
- “We are seeing good improvements in process accuracy, in yields, etc. There is still a journey to go. We’ve been we are being very rigorous in terms of uh testing and process uh quality for the cell.” – Bhavish Aggarwal, Earnings Call
Analyst Concerns and Responses:
- Concerns about the decline in premium scooter sales QoQ and YoY were addressed by emphasizing seasonality, the introduction of the mass market portfolio, and a shift in customer preferences from motorbikes to premium EV scooters.
- Concerns regarding the sustainability of deep discounts given by competitors were met with confidence in Ola’s vertically integrated manufacturing and technology capabilities, enabling cost leadership and aggressive pricing strategies.
- Queries regarding the impact of promotional schemes on margins were addressed by highlighting Ola’s commitment to balancing growth and profitability.
Piccadily Agro Industries Ltd (08-11-2024)
State wise cost cards are different ballgame as EDP varies state to state and most of state asks for neighbouring state EDPs to approve their own cost cards . But companies find a way to circumvent state governments requirement by launching different variants .
This year PAIL will certainly gain serious volume gains as they have gained significant volumes in Canteen Stores Department and Central Armed police business .Response in defence business is superb and i expect defence business itself should add volumes of 15000 cases in current financial year at a healthy EDP . Coming quarters should be good considering marriage season and peak winter season setting in
Ranvir’s Portfolio (08-11-2024)
This is great considering the amount of scrip in your portfolio. But last 2 year I would say you lost the opportunity to make it big with concentrated portfolio. In any case still you have far better returns in long run. I really like reasing some of your analysis in other thread.
Only advice I can give is make stronger conviction and build portfolio size of not more than 15 or 20 max.
I will keep following you here.