according to me its not natural to exit the company at fraction of 1or 2years , look at the really solid businesses like warren buufet was invested in coca cola before our birth and story still continues, RJ invested in titan since 23 years and still holding 90% of his holding…
but the problem with arman is its invstors and promotors dont have confinent then how we small invsetors can jump on it…
conviction nam ki bhi koi cheez hoti he bhai…their promotors selling at every rise, PEs playing their own jugglery, MFI indutry itself suprise with numbers Arman growing ,
MAS ,Credit access yebhi samjte he business ko ,lekin grow sifr yahi kar rha he. or promotors bech rhe he…
Posts in category Value Pickr
Arman Financial Services Ltd (30-05-2024)
Den Networks – Company selling for free? (30-05-2024)
Any idea why they are not giving dividends if they are so cash rich and generate so much of cash every year
Den Networks – Company selling for free? (30-05-2024)
This is the first time I am starting the thread, but I am diverging from the usual aspect of running the entire business story, since my investment thesis is based purely on balance sheet. Risks are highlighted with respect to my thesis, rather than that for business. I have started the thread because I couldn’t find other for this company. Also, seniors and moderators, I am not sure about the categorization since I am not betting on earnings growth of this stock. Sincere apologies for missing if such categorization exists
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Den Networks is majorly hold by Reliance (~67%), followed by ~7-8% by founder promoter Mr. Sameer Manchanda
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The business has generated good amount of cash from operations, with historical performance as follows –
Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 | E |
---|---|---|---|---|
TRENDS (INR Cr) | 10 YEARS | 7 YEARS | 5 YEARS | 3 YEARS |
PAT | -194 | 589 | 901 | 633 |
CFO | 1335 | 1064 | 838 | 352 |
CFO/PAT | -6.87 | 1.81 | 0.93 | 0.56 |
Its balance sheet currently is as follows –
Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 |
---|---|---|---|
Equity | 3256 | ||
Non Current Liabilities | 70 | ||
Lease obligations | 26 | ||
Deferred revenue | 32 | ||
Provisions | 12 | ||
Current Liabilities | 432 | ||
Lease obligations | 2 | ||
Trade payables (Inc PPE payables on purchase) | 277 | ||
Provisions | 3 | ||
Employee dues | 5 | ||
Deffered revenue | 49 | ||
Statutory remittances | 28 | ||
Indirect tax + others | 69 | ||
Total Liabilities | 3759 | ||
Non current Assets | 888 | ||
PPE & CWIP | 432 | ||
Goodwill & Other intangibles | 159 | ||
Investments in operating subsidiaries | 67 | ||
Other financial assets | 3 | ||
Deferred & Non current tax assets (Net) | 156 | ||
Other non-current assets | 70 | ||
Current Assets | 2870 | ||
Investments in quoted mutual funds & bonds | 1359 | ||
Cash in FD | 1140 | ||
Cash in Hand | 16 | ||
Cash kept as margin | 178 | ||
Trade receivables | 87 | ||
Doubtful advances | 13 | ||
Unbilled revenue | 19 | ||
Other financial assets | 5 | ||
Balance with govt authorities | 47 | ||
Other current assets | 6 | ||
Total Assets | 3759 |
Its current Market Cap = ~2380 Cr
So, considering only net cash in hand and quoted investments amount to ~INR 2515 Cr, do we have a graham style bet? Where a business generating ~INR 200 Cr profit year on year is available for free? In my opinion, considering market won’t give much terminal value to cable network business, this should go for a PE of maybe 6-7? That itself- gives target market cap of ~3800-4000 Cr
Risks:
- Reliance holding – Not sure how and what they will do if they choose to take this private. I am not sure about their intentions for minority shareholders
- Wrong about terminal value assumptions – Maybe 6-7 PE for business is also too optimistic and it won’t be valued at that
- Lack of some insider info: It has been such a value bet over last 2-3 quarters at least, if we check its balance sheet and market cap. Somehow, it has escaped till now despite presence large number of quantitative formulae based screeners and investors
Request views from everyone. I am not invested yet since I am not sure why such a bet will exist for so long, and hence I think there is some point I am missing
Disclaimer: I am not invested in this yet, but have been tracking for some time now.
SreeLeathers Limited (30-05-2024)
As per 2013 AR its land value is around 110 Cr then now value could be more than 300 Cr after 11 years
Everest Kanto Cylinders Ltd. – A long runway ahead! (30-05-2024)
People want financial independence. Some come here for great investment ideas to accomplish FIRE, some build great businesses and some get lucky when they inherit it from their ancestors (cough cough).
This management got that FIRE without FIRE in the belly. I am no expert by any means but having listened to enough promoters, I am yet to come across anyone as clueless as this one. If munna bhai asked circuit for every simple question that someone asks, movie would have been a flop. This one is.
I was invested in this one for a few quarters and then moved my money to technoplast. Zero regrets. Now I come here just for lulz.
PS: Sincere apologies if i am hurting anyone’s feelings. I would delete this non-value adding post later.
Everest Kanto Cylinders Ltd. – A long runway ahead! (30-05-2024)
People want financial independence. Some come here for great investment ideas to accomplish FIRE, some build great businesses and some get lucky when they inherit it from their ancestors (cough cough).
This management got that FIRE without FIRE in the belly. I am no expert by any means but having listened to enough promoters, I am yet to come across anyone as clueless as this one. If munna bhai asked circuit for every simple question that someone asks, movie would have been a flop. This one is.
I was invested in this one for a few quarters and then moved my money to technoplast. Zero regrets. Now I come here just for lulz.
PS: Sincere apologies if i am hurting anyone’s feelings. I would delete this non-value adding post later.
KMC Speciality hospital (30-05-2024)
Results look great but I would be better to have more communication from management for example on the contribution from the new 200 bed maternity care unit. For now this is what we know from their investor presentation “Further, we are happy to announce the operationalization of its new facility of an additional 200 beds focused on providing Mother and Child Care services from January 29, 2024.”
This means we should have had 2 months of performance from this unit being included in FY2024 results.
Disc: Invested in 2024
SreeLeathers Limited (30-05-2024)
One very impressive thing is the Inventory and debtor days…They are very low compared to other players…If Stores were on Rented space and Liquid assets used for growth then balance sheet will not be very heavy…
So If Land and liquid assets removed from balance sheet then we can see very good ROCE
KMC Speciality hospital (30-05-2024)
March 24 was fantastic year with Highest ever Sales of 177 crore and Profit After Tax of 30 crore having EPS of 1.86
Fixed assets jumped significantly from 84 crore to 206 crore
Source: x.com
Monte Carlo Fashions-Branded Apparel Stock at Good Valuation (30-05-2024)
In my opinion, the company has lost its brand value. Indie brands are increasingly capturing market share from established brands across the board. To make matters worse, the company’s management is both inefficient and ineffective.
Peter Lynch’s principle of investing i.e. Buy what you see, applies to retail brands and I haven’t seen anyone wear Monte Carlo in ages. Seems like people have forgotten the name.