You were wise and made the right call here, @dd1474. I should have exited too when you wrote this. They do seem to be losing market share in the Hindi heartland even though their results have been good in Q4 due to the advertising revenue boost (excluding the large provision made). This has been a good lesson on being more cautious about taking bets when terminal value and management issues are greater than perceived undervaluation. They have stopped doing earnings calls for the last three quarters too, which is also a signal of deeper issues. Maybe I will get lucky and get a decent exit at some point as I am not under pressure to sell. Let’s see. Irrespective of what the outcome is, I see this investment now as a process mistake.
Posts in category Value Pickr
PayTM (One 97 Communications Ltd) (29-05-2024)
Rumors that Adani wants to buy a stake.
Mudit’s Portfolio (Stage Analysis + Relative Strength) (29-05-2024)
I already have a huge position in Silver before venturing into HZ. Silver is a turnaround commodity and pretty much still at the start of its bull run. I bought HZ purely as a proxy for silver knowing it will outperform the metal once the cycle sets in. With less than 2% free float, prices are for sure susceptible for manipulation.
As long as the company generates free cash flows and consistently pay dividend, the fundamentals cannot be rigged by promoters. Excessive dividend payouts were a concern in the recent years. Payout % should come down drastically in future as the profits begin to improve.
IDFC First Bank Limited (29-05-2024)
Well, Erosion is in Book value per share. It depends on what Px BV multiple that the Equity is raised. If they are raising at current levels, then it no good.
Mudit’s Portfolio (Stage Analysis + Relative Strength) (29-05-2024)
Yesterday many pharma companies outperformed Nifty 500 index
GlaxoSmithKline by 5.6%
Glen Pharma by 3.64%
Divis labs by 3.22%
Syngene inten by 2.98%
Eris lifesciences by 2.14%
Aurobindo by 2%
Seems tide is changing for pharma sector, slowly
When entire pharma sector is down, Aurobindo pharma has given 110% returns in last 1 year and sales and Eps has been very good in last 4 quarters…As per my sense, if pharma starts running, Aurobindo will be a leader among them.
Gokaldas exports — cup and handle/rising channel (29-05-2024)
Looks like acquisition numbers are playing out. Demand and Stable Cotton price will determine how synergy numbers Come out.
Mudit’s Portfolio (Stage Analysis + Relative Strength) (29-05-2024)
@Lakshmi_Narasimhan_B Are you not worried about Hindustan Zinc? Shady promoter and hardly 5% freefloat after promoter+Govt holding? Its going like rocket…isnt it scary?
IDFC First Bank Limited (29-05-2024)
If I remember correctly, in the past, they would get the board’s approval for equity dilution very much ahead of time. I expect the fundraising to happen towards the end of the FY unless there is an urgent need for capital.
Opportunities in Holding Companies (29-05-2024)
The value per share now stands at 33,000. But the current price is stagnant and available at a discount of 85%. I think the operators are playing a game here and continuously suppressing the market price.
Protean EGov Technologies Ltd – A Play on the ONDC, Digital Policies (29-05-2024)
Pls update on ONDC prospects for Protean.