Price resumed downward trend or its stabilizing at 115-120

Why the stocks is falling continuously, anything to worry about. I read the latest concall notes and the ppt, fundamentally everything looks good still.

While I share your disappointment, I do believe that Kushal was talking about the new harvest from Bihar and he stated that the benefit would accrue in the ‘coming quarters’ (we believed that it would be from Q4, we can say he should have specified that it won’t be in Q4).
We have to keep few things in mind

1. Though the call was for Q3, it was being held when half of Q4 had already passed, Kushal had clearly highlighted that the current procurement cost was Rs 24.3, which is a jump of more than 10-15% as generally the procurement cost was Rs 21-22. That quantum of jump is by no means small. The price hike of Ethanol was around 9% while the cost increase was 10-15%.
   [Edit: I think I understand why some investors consider that the cost hike was small and margins should have still been better as Ethanol prices increased by Rs. 5.9 while maize price increased by ‘just’ Rs 2.5-3.5. We need to think in % terms rather than absolutes, specially when 1 Kg maize doesn’t produce 1 ltr of Ethanol]
2. Compare BCL performance with its peer Gulshan Poly (in distillery segment), BCL has done better in terms of margins consistently. Even their margins were subdued because of raw material pressure.
3. Agree, other than additional revenue from new 100KLPD coming online this quarter, there are no other ‘triggers’, but if the current price is below its fair price, that could itself act as trigger and once (if/when) some bigger players start entering and the price starts showing momentum, retail will also start piling on which they are now leaving for a broken company/stock.

Disclosure: Invested since 3-4 yrs and pyramiding. Not a buy/sell reco. Just sharing my thoughts here.

The economics of the franchisee of quick commerce dark stores. Anyone can confirm? It does not look very lucrative. As per the tweet:

80 Lakhs is required to get a Dark Store franchise of a Q-Commerce company

All Q-commerce companies are running asset lite model by selling franchise of dark stores. Its difficult to reach a conclusion of when would a franchise owner gets its investment back & make money on the investment with so much competition to sell under 10-15 minutes

Mandates to get a Dark Store

1. Dark Store Franchise Fee: 8 Lakhs (One time)
2. Deposit 72 Lakhs for min 3000 Sq Feet warehouse
3. Minimum 20 Employee to be hired & their salary is on the dark store owner
4. Mandatory to prepare the order in less than 2 minutes
5. Allowed only 1500 orders per day, once exceeded a new dark store to be opened & split the orders
6. Avg commission per order given is 2.5-3%
7. All goods & expenses (Rent + Electricity + Cold Storages ) on the Q-Commerce

Original tweet below
https://x.com/priteshlakhani/status/1795072451270906091