Posts in category Value Pickr
Burger King ~ Whopper of an Opportunity (03-11-2024)
I got the gist of it. And I am not able to disagree.
Burger King ~ Whopper of an Opportunity (03-11-2024)
Regarding Indonesia side they have stop opening new restaurants there till situation improves (they said they can do 15% ebita over there)
Lets hope in the next few quarters they do
Burger King ~ Whopper of an Opportunity (03-11-2024)
We are getting these valuations cuz of uncertainty only.
I think in the next 10 years time frame RBA will do better than other QSR in stock price CAGR
My rational: with per capita income increasing(with 7% we will double in 10 years)
QSR sale will go up n RBA will benefit.
At current valuation we get better margin of safety compared to other QSR.
Debt wise in the con-cal they said they will update in the coming quarters regarding how they will raise money.
With 700 restaurants after 2 years they will try n get profitable next.
I think it a bet worth taking n if u do want to bet on this QSR thing RBA at current value is a good buy
Ps- i have a lot to say but im not very good at expressing myself
Zaggle_A platform to address pain points for enterprises (03-11-2024)
Yeah, this came in as a surprise. The stock is already quite expensive and this QIP will mean the EPS will get further diluted by around 20%. Hopefully the management has some good inorganic plan up their sleeve, but we’ll have to wait and watch if this will go boom or bust.
Disc : Invested.
Zaggle_A platform to address pain points for enterprises (03-11-2024)
I think this is very conservative calculation, but I understand its always wise leave some room for margin of safety. I am expecting the management to formally up the growth guidance after Q2 result. I recall CEO in his recent interview has already indicated that they will up the growth guidance (from 45-55% to a higher number) for the full year. Usually only 35% of the full year revenue is contributed in H1 and since the H2 will have higher volumes, the realizations will be better as the revenue is the function of the take rate (for both Zoyer and co-branded credit card spending). Let’s see what the Q2 numbers look like.
Disc : Invested
Zaggle_A platform to address pain points for enterprises (03-11-2024)
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Jindal Drilling – Beneficiary of a sustained offshore upcycle? (03-11-2024)
A good thread. It got my interest.
Question- before the rigs can be redeployed, around 6 to 8 months are taken for refurbishment and new contract. Also a significant money is required for refurbishment.
Considering that only 5 rigs will operate for complete next year. (Jindal explorer is active in q1 however jindal pioneer will not be active in q4 fy25.
This will impact the PAT for next year by approx. 6 to 7 Cr per quarter.(Based on above calculation)
I will study further to understand unit economics.
Burger King ~ Whopper of an Opportunity (03-11-2024)
I agee from current quantitative valuation point of view. RBA is winning in every respect. (Can be observed in the Image I attached.)
My concern is more from qualitative perspective. 200 restaurants in 2 years is a huge liability. Plus, Indonesia!! Although, Indonesia wont take 2 years to resolve. Yet, high uncertainty is what I can observe in India alone.
It could work out. But, my fear is from a safety perspective.
Anything can happen in the next Two years. e.g. High QIP flow which it will definitely need. stock prices might remain the same, yet market cap would go up!!!
You mentioned operating cash flow. There are about the same number of stores of RBA as Sapphire. Thus, they generate same cash flows. RBA is burning cash intensely to do that right now. If you checkout cash reserves, RBA’s reducing quite drastically. In September too, it increased by borrowing. Its commitment requires it to burn further money.
My estimate is, it will do a QIP, people would panic. I might be wrong.
Disc. Invested insignificant amount. Terrified to buy at this price, waiting for further correction(Could take eternity), or change of circumstances.