@Anand_Jain Yes, I am using the same dates for look back.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Matrimony.com Ltd – Lot of opportunity to grow (18-05-2024)
Wonder if they intend to invest in Online Astrology as well which has an expected growth rate of 45%, can probably prove more profitable for them than online wedding services.
Disclosure: Not holding but interested
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (18-05-2024)
BKT came out with good results, with improvement in profit margins. It just crossed its 3 year and All time high. Looking good on both technical and fundamental fronts. Any expert opinion on the set up?
Wonderla Holidays (18-05-2024)
Key takeaways from concall –
-The company plans to open 1 new park every year(Huge)
- Does not expect improvement in footfall from existing parks as the are old and already running at optimum level.
- Bhuvaneshwar park expected ARPU to be around 800-1000 and expect margins to get dilute due to this over next year.
- Expect chennai park to be completed by Q3 next year.
- Increase in employee cost in current quarter due to ESOP granted to key management.
- Current quarter looks good but little impacted due to heat waves in bangalore.
My observation – The company has yet again raised ticket prices this season by around 10 percent but struggling to get footfall which is evident by lot of marketing efforts and offers it is running in current peak quarter which were earlier not there in previous years.
Disc – Invested.
P.E. Analytics Ltd (PROPEQUITY) – Another Data Analytics Platform for Real Estate Players (18-05-2024)
Re-posting this here as this is the main thread for P.E Analytics
Business: Data and Analytics in real estate Industry.
PROPEQUITY_13052024185901_Final_TranscriptIntimation.pdf (nseindia.com)
Mudit’s Portfolio (Stage Analysis + Relative Strength) (18-05-2024)
I could not go back 10 years but took a look at 5 years and here is the comparison of HDFC Midcap Opps Direct Growth vs Direct growth TOP fund of the midcap cat fund in that year…
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDFC Midcap Opps Direct Growth | 22.58 | 40.88 | 13.09 | 45.45 | 13.2 |
| PGIM, PGIM, Quant, Nippon, Quant | 51.13 | 66.92 | 19.94 | 49.76 | 26.3 |
| Difference | 28.55 | 26.04 | 6.85 | 4.31 | 13.1 |
Over 5 years, this works to 15% difference on an average. There will be taxes, when you switch like this but assuming that anyway you will pay taxes, even if one exits from HDFC fund eventually (and the difference can be at best 5% between LTCG vs STCG)…My quick conclusion – the difference between top fund and HDFC fund is not much, in years, when the entire category does not perform. In years, where there is outlier out-performance, the difference is much more stark…
Sanghvi Movers (18-05-2024)
I think Sanghvi movers investor concall was not well planned, the message passed was wrongly interpreted by most.
The positives I picked up in call is
- pricing power (tagging EPC with credit period and saying would stop giving cranes )
- pay as you grow model -capex in last 3 years always increased by board -same may continue
- % mix changing for higher cranes will lead to higher yield (my guess )
- 77% of gross block is new cranes
- check past order book increase between 1 year period ,gives indication revenue would be close to 900cr
The company which will grow minimum at 25/30%+ is available at Cash Pat multiple of 14 in this bullish market
Sanghvi Movers (18-05-2024)
@First_Principles Very nicely captured .
I maintain my stance that the PAT of Sanghvi movers is logically and legally as per rules deflated (aggressive depreciation )
•The right way to see the valuation is Cash PAT multiple and not PE multiple .
•Even in Cash Pat Multiple the Valuation is deflated as assets are depreciation in circa 5 years or so whereas assets have life of 25/30/35/40 years .Recently they sold a crane of 1962 !!
•Hence better to calculate the life time value of these assets (2490 Cr is Gross Block ) which has huge earnings capacity !
First way (my way –crude approach) :
1.The future value of 2,490cr with a 15% annual yield (they now get 24% )over 25 years is approximately 81,574 cr
2.Present value of ₹81,574 crore after 25 years with an annual inflation rate of 6% is approximately ₹18,998 crore.
Second way (traditional way –DCF approach):
•Discounted cash flow (DCF) of an investment of 2,490 Cr with a 15% per annum discount rate over 25 years and a terminal value growth rate of 2% is approximately 17,386 Cr
Current market cap is only 5300 cr .
What can go wrong – Have taken yield at 15% which is 15/24 =63% capacity utilisation .Though currently for last 3 years its at an average of 80%+ it can be much lower than my assumption for longer period of time .Hence I can be completely wrong .
Will calculate this years (24-25) financials and share on Monday .
Ujjivan Financial – Small Finance Bank (18-05-2024)
The bank has guided for a best ever Q4.
In this quarter, 2 trends are being seen:
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Results across mid caps are inconsistent. Q4 was good but Q3 was not-so-good and vice versa. Predicting the quarterly numbers hasn’t been that straightforward.
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Markets hv their own assumptions in driving stock prices.
While ujjivan PPOP was 25% higher, PAT growth was weak although it met management guidance of record profit. NNPA surprisingly disappointed.
To me the numbers are below impressive, but let’s see what market does.