Any idea, why the price of this stock is continuously falling since last quarter despite of good numbers. I am invested into it .
Posts in category Value Pickr
Anshul’s investing journey (07-05-2024)
Here is the updated portfolio.
I have added three positions: TIIL, Jash engineering and MediAssist while exited Kolte Patil.
I shifted the funds from Kolte to Jash directly, while MediAssist and TIIL were added.
I am currently studying Welspun enterprises as an extension to the water theme which I am playing with Jash engineering.
I increased stake in Goodluck India, Why?
I see strong earning visibility and the pillars of growth look quite strong. I can be quite wrong but that was one major reason!
Secondly, I had earlier discussed and thought of selling South India bank and shift to Armaan but I did not. It was more of a technical reason. I decided against selling because it was on support and there was growth visible. I think it was the right decision as the stock rebounded and grew by 20% something percent( its a different story that it came back to the same level.
here is where I believe I need to improve. I am not so sure on a few decisions I have made.
Do I keep owning SIB? If it’s a fundamental pick: what weightage does technicals have in making the decision?
Does it even make sense to own stocks such as MediAssist,TIIL and NH because they are barely worth much in my portfolio.
I hope to learn and answer these questions myself: its an evolutionary process as an investor.
Another thing I would like to address
One thing I struggle is idea generation. Most of the businesses I own were talked about by someone, some video, some recommendation in which I worked on independently and bought. I make my own thesis and analyse them myself but Ideas are borrowed. I want to focus on this as well.
Manappuram Finance (06-05-2024)
Financials Can Do Quite Well, Bullish On Manappuram Finance: DoorDarshi India Fund | CNBC TV18
Rajeev Agrawal from
Doordarshi India dedicated fund
is Bullish on Manappuram
Financials can do quiet well in India
In India credit opportunity is huge
Indian equities have long runway
Recently presented Manappuram finance at Asian investing summit
Manappuram finance is pretty intersting
———————————
I feel slowly and steadily people are realising the potential of Manappuram finance growing at 20% and still available at single digit PE
Last year PE was around 4-5
Now it’s 7-8
Aptus Value Housing : Is valuation justified or just another HFC? (06-05-2024)
Aptus continues to do very well, growing AUM by 29% in FY24 while maintaining 8%+ ROAs. They are confident of growing AUM by 30% in FY25. Concall notes from last couple of calls below.
FY24Q3
- Central audit employees reduced sequentially because there was a reclassification from central audit to head office (HO/operations)
- Opex will continue to be in the 2.7-2.75% range
- Have started booking some LAP loans in NBFC which was earlier getting booked in housing finance entity
- Reduced fixed loan borrowing because they envisage reduction in rates (so tactical in nature)
FY24Q4
- 30% growth in FY25
- Sequential decrease in # sales employees is due to attrition at lower employee grades
- Maintain 1-1.5 months of disbursements as cash equivalent
- Want to take leverage to 5x (equity / advances: 0.2)
Hard to say, at these high growth rates with such unit economics, they can even trade at 10x PB assuming they can maintain this combination of growth, profitability and asset quality. I am not really modeling an exit valuation yet, just seeing the picture unfold slowly.
Disclosure: Invested (position size here, no transactions in last-30 days)
PayTM (One 97 Communications Ltd) (06-05-2024)
If you really think it’s undervalue, add just 2% of portfolio. This is not stock when you can add 10 % or 20% of portfolio. And you need to constantly watch management’s decision. This is not buy and hold stock because many things you can not predict or control.
Zen technologies – A micro cap in the defense space! (06-05-2024)
Thank you so much .That clears my query
PayTM (One 97 Communications Ltd) (06-05-2024)
Cash is cash whether manufacturing or a tech company. Even the old time manufacturing company will perish if there is no demand for its product.
It still holds major market share on merchant side. Coming to moat- It do enjoy some network effects.
It has a very good wealth management application , which is growing. If some cannot value it’s business model – no bookmyshow, makemytrip, easemytrip etc cannot be valued as well. It also has a Japanese pay pay which is valued at ~3.5 k crores.
Why are we just treating it like a failed venture.
Coming to 22k crore valuation – come on guys capital intensive commodity businesses with no moat at all are trading at 3x price to sales.
Anyways, I may be completely wrong. Thanks for responding🙂.
Zen technologies – A micro cap in the defense space! (06-05-2024)
increase/decrease in other bank balance – it includes following items
1)balances with banks for unclaimed dividend
2) deposits against bank guarantees
3)fixed deposits
You can find this from zen technologies annual report , in annual report they give the explanation note/account for “what are the items included in other bank balance” , you can also find for other line items for which explanation has not been given in Quaterly results
I hope it clears your doubt
Gravita India success story (06-05-2024)
How should we view the qualified opinion presented by the auditors?
Muthoot Microfin Limited is it next JP Morgan? (06-05-2024)
All round progress of the company depicts progressive management.