@hitesh2710 sir, I have started learning technicals in conjunction with fundamentals. Geojit financial gave a cup and handle breakout on weekly charts. On fundamental front, the march quarter eps increased by 78% compared to same quarter previous year. Yearly eps also increased by 50%.
Looking for your expert guidance.
Mirae AMC and Aditya Birla AMC are meeting Tejas management next week. Looks like fund houses are waking up to the potential of this company…(after one good quarter… 
)
Open offer at 1069.75 per share as part of reorganization between Godrej family
The only thing that concerns (could be a gap in my understanding) is why does the company historically pay dividends even when it had significant borrowings and capex planned. Even last year it had a 80% payout ratio.
Also historically the company always has had a high cash balance thus should we already discount for that?
Portfolio update:
Date 1st May 2024
Short update: Did nothing (mostly). Continuing to buy, hold & track while focusing on portfolio longevity and respecting mean reversion and probability.
Action(s) in April 2024: Added BAJAJ FINANCE.
Rationale: Looks like market participants expect the company to grow at 30% YoY (historical average) while the company has started growing at 20% YoY – hence there’s been time correction from mid-2021 onwards. However, re-entering at 5.5 P/BV is below 10y historical average. Hence respecting mean reversion, bought 10% of the existing allocation.
Here’s my latest portfolio :
| Stock name | Weight | Avg P/E | Total P/L | IRR | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST 100 ETF | 8.6% | 20.1 | 49% | 28% | |
| TIPS LIMITED | 7.9% | 20.6 | 163% | 69% | |
| TATA INVEST CORP | 7.7% | 27.5 | 257% | 159% | |
| BANK BEES ETF | 7.2% | 12.9 | 33% | 19% | |
| TITAN | 7.2% | 47.2 | 111% | 26% | |
| BAJAJ FINANCE | 7.1% | 22.2 | 37% | 13% | Added more |
| IRCTC | 6.4% | 26.9 | 247% | 57% | |
| COAL INDIA | 6.3% | 5.7 | 74% | 105% | |
| DIXON | 4.9% | 43.9 | 463% | 97% | |
| PIDILITE | 4.6% | 57.2 | 72% | 19% | |
| INDIAMART | 4.2% | 51.7 | 49% | 33% | |
| ASIAN PAINTS | 4.1% | 47.1 | 23% | 8% | |
| NARAYANA HEALTH | 4.1% | 24.0 | 41% | 50% | |
| VARUN BEVERAGES | 3.9% | 46.5 | 103% | 62% | |
| TATA ELXSI | 3.3% | 34.2 | 155% | 52% | |
| CASH | 3.2% | – | |||
| IEX | 3.0% | 15.1 | 122% | 18% | |
| AMARA RAJA * | 2.9% | 11.6 | 63% | 106% | |
| PHANTOM VFX * | 1.8% | 27.2 | 10% | 37% | |
| WONDERLA * | 1.8% | 30.0 | 18% | 31% |
*(asterisk) signifies <1 yr holding period.
Note: have started adding my overall cash position.
Here’s the return profile till 30th April 2024:
| Return till 30/04/2024 | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | Since inception |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MY PORTFOLIO | 2.8% | 8.0% | 24.2% | 48.7% | 17.7% | 22.7% | 21.8% |
| NIFTY 50 | 0.6% | 3.7% | 18.5% | 24.7% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 14.4% |
| NIFTY 500 | 2.9% | 6.2% | 25.0% | 37.5% | 19.7% | 16.7% | 15.6% |
Note: 1/3/6M is in absolutes while the 1/3/5Y/SI is annualized. The inception date is 10th Nov 2016.
Disclaimer : I am neither a financial nor a SEBI registered advisor. The content shared here is only for learning purposes. So please use your discretion to make any buy/sell decision and not use the above as a recommendation.
Added to your note, During Q3 con call, Management clearly guided for Revenue in range of 100 – 125 cr. , which they have delivered. They also mentioned at least for foreseeable future (1 yr), margins will be intact which is also true in Q4 results. They have lot of orders in hand, niche segment of transformers and a tail wind sector (renewables), Demand to stay strong for atleast 5 years. Management is walking the walk, looking for good times. Q4 results will flush out weak hands or the ones who entered for sheer momentum and social media following
Disc: Invested from lower levels
Who is the group leader here? Is it @bozo_investor? Is there a whatsapp group?
AMCs comparison –
HDFC vs NIPPON vs ABSL AMC
AUM – 6.1 lk cr vs 5.2 lk cr vs 3.3 lk cr
Mkt Share – 12.1 pc vs 7.9 pc vs 6.2 pc
Equity AUM – 54 pc vs 49 pc vs 46 pc
Retail Mix – 71 pc vs 61 pc vs 52 pc
B- 30 share – 19 pc vs 20 pc vs 17.5 pc
SIP Book @ – 2.9k cr vs 2.3k cr vs 1.25 k cr
Disc : holding Nippon AMC, biased
VAHAN regn as of 1st May.
Apr’24 is lower MoM, but is the highest ever Apr month VAHAN Regn. Seasonal trend seems to have kicked in, with lower volumes in Apr-Jun qtr. If Apr/May Regn volumes are a bottom kind of figure, it still works out great for ACE in FY25, time will tell. On target to cross 10K Regn for CY 2024.
The other updates on 80 Acre land acquisition, capex, defence orders, etc might have to be seen from company for valuation upside.
Do Note VAHAN Regn will be directly related to ACE sales numbers, but will not capture non-road equipment sales.
AMCs comparison –
HDFC vs NIPPON vs ABSL AMC
AUM – 6.1 lk cr vs 5.2 lk cr vs 3.3 lk cr
Mkt Share – 12.1 pc vs 7.9 pc vs 6.2 pc
Equity AUM – 54 pc vs 49 pc vs 46 pc
Retail Mix – 71 pc vs 61 pc vs 52 pc
B- 30 share – 19 pc vs 20 pc vs 17.5 pc
SIP Book @ – 2.9k cr vs 2.3k cr vs 1.25 k cr
This data also explains the probable reasons for relative valuations of these AMCs