Decent set of results .The growth and replacement demand for two-wheelers and three-wheelers in Q2 FY25 are continuing. These companies have also attempted to expand into newer international markets. Although there is a slowdown in the production of PV and CV components, it does not significantly impact Shriram pistons as they have diversified into various fuel systems ( I feel CNG, Flex fuels offer the largest source of oppurtunity). However, the export components still face challenges.

In the motor industry, Shiram Pistons’ potential for success lies in the substantial market size for two-wheelers and three-wheelers, which could potentially reach two crores annually (currently around 1.6 Cr ). Additionally, Shiram Pistons supplies to almost all OEMs would provide a strong foundation for cross-selling. Ensuring the quality of products and localizing them to avail subsidies are crucial factors. Currently, Shiram Pistons’ capacity is around 5 million (picked up from one of the previous concalls), and they plan to double it to 10 million. They have already acquired land in Coimbatore for this expansion. I am not sure when revenues will come for this ( Expecting by Q1FY26 )

In terms of the motor market size, 2W OEMS sells 1.6 crores of two-wheelers annually, and this figure is expected to reach two crores in the coming years. Approximately 50% of this demand will be electrified, leading to a demand for electric motors and controllers of around one crore. Considering the current domestic production of only 10 lakhs of motors annually, the demand for motors by 2030 is projected to increase by 10 times, presenting a significant opportunity for Shiram Pistons. This growth is anticipated to start generating revenues for the controller business from the next fiscal year. Another trigger is the localization part which enables them to avail subsidies. SPR does business with almost all OEMs hence a sort of operating leverage will also play out in them.

In the injection molding segment, the market size is estimated to be around 3000 to 4000 crores, and Shiram Pistons currently holds a market share of 5 to 7%. They primarily focus on Japanese customers but plan to expand their customer base to include non-Japanese customers in the near future(They have started to supply to a few of them). SPR is also planning to expand this facility to. Additionally they have around 1000 Cr of cash for future expansion. They are able to grow at 2x the Industry growth seems healthy. Lets see if near term triggers of exports play out.

@suroy2387 In momentum of the type we follow, we do not have a specific exit strategy. We rank the stocks and based on the ranking stocks enter and exit.

There are some people who shift to cash or gold when the market turns bearish.

We get the daily data from Google Finance. There is a video around the 250th message in a thread called “Smallcap momentum portfolio”. Check it out; you will have details on how to proceed with pf formation.

@visuarchie Thank you for sharing this strategy. As far as I understand, momentum portfolio works great during bull run and can be a disaster during bearish market. What is your strategy on risk management in this case?

Also, from where can we get the price of a stock date wise?

TIA

Aditya Birla Capital(avg – 222.8) and Strides Pharma(avg → 1600+) are the special situation stocks. It is the first time I have taken stocks to practice special situation investing.

Aditya Birla Capital Thesis
I was initially reluctant to buy this company. Sawing it in a smallcase portfolio that got shared on twitter and the special situation video by SOIC which talked about change in management helped in study in deeper.
Considering the management is not minority friendly and hence it is 2 percent of my portfolio.

Under new management it is doing very good.

NBFC is going to merge with the holding company which would remove holding company discount.

Currently considering growth of their nbfc business, their is a opportunity for rerating.

Gnpa and nnpa profile is as per chola mandalam and has been improving for few years.

Triggers

1. Holding company discount to go away – near
2. Amazing growth with good npa profile – near
3. Interest rate cut. – medium

Negatives

1. Corporate loan book.

Need to understand how their 70 percent loan book is secured.

2. Management in the past have shown that they are not minority shareholder friendly.

Moat
Low cost of funds at 7 percent.

Stage
Stage 3

Vstop
Positive

Other comment on technicals
Stock price in a band

Valuation
Less than 2x of the book value

ROE is in mid teens.

Strides Pharma thesis
To get a hold of the Onesource.
I have been tracking Strides since it was first added by a famous smallcase though bought it very late at over 1600+.

1. Just to get the child company which is valued at 1.6b.
2. Child company is the supplier of injectible for majority of generic companies in GPL1. Things will start from Q3.
   3.Injectible is major cost component in GLP-1 drug, even more than api.

Nearly bought it at 3.5x of sales