Great analysis but couple of things:
1- I see Havell’s name missing. They are 3rd largest player after Polycab and KEI
2- This analysis can and should be applied to any sector where you see fragmented competitive landscape. Larger players will always have advantage due to their scale and quality of management talent (low cost debt, leverage over suppliers, bargaining power with buyers, lower per unit fixed cost etc). Smaller players in majority of the cases will not have the same advantages and as a result their financial and operating metrics will lag their larger peers.

Most retail investors prefer small caps player due to low base effects, under-ownership and expectations for business turnaround which leads to highly rewarding stock price appreciation. Larger cap companies on the other hand are considered to be well-discovered, well-owned and with very limited upside on operational/valuation/financial metric and market share again, which means low but steady returns. A company with 5% market share can easily increase it by 50-60% while the one with 50% market share will find it difficult to grow by 10-15%.

That said, one can sleep peacefully with larger cap players knowing that there are very less chances they will go out of business. Same, however, can’t be said about smaller companies (no matter how good they may appear on financial/operational metrics).

So beyond the metrics, one should also consider their time horizon, return expectations, and risk appetite while making decisions on which stocks they want to pick.

Assuming things get escalated, the impact on India can potentially be on crude oil front as we import crude from Iran. But then as we saw in Russia-Ukraine was, we ended up being a beneficiary by getting Russian crude (that we were importing before) at a discount.

So we never know how things will pan out till they actually do.

Hi – i think you already may have answered this in terms of lowering risk but if we reduce the size to just 10 stocks would it be possible to quantify the impact on returns – i guess this will increase returns but will open up a huge potential for risk as its now spread over much lesser number of stocks. another point on which request your input is on momentum 200 index which also seems to have returned around 70% last FY

@prasad60 Which are Tesla vendors who are listed in India?

There is no sudden jump in FII.
Ownership of Tobacco manufacturers (india) limited was simply reclassified from public to FII.