I am invested in Presstonic and Basilic and am very hopeful of great results in H2 and future too. Let us see, rest have not sutdied so cant say.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Investing Basics – Feel free to ask the most basic questions (11-04-2024)
How can i check that , if you can explain please.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (11-04-2024)
Hello everyone , i am doing these momentum strategies for almost 3 years now , i wold like to share my experience
- I run these strategies on cnx200 and smallcap 250 ,
Pros - when market is in good swing , you make extremely good returns – ( this fy cnx200 returns are north of 80%)
- There is not much to think and just follow a plain approach which does the job , already listed in the forum above
- You automatically find the best sectors and ride the full trend without even looking at charts
- position sizing and shifting from one stock to other is very easy as most of us are retailers here
Cons –
- when the momentum ends we loose most of the gains – eg if we hold a stock at 5% initial then it can become 10 or 15 % of weight at some point of time … booking out the gains is very importat at that point as if this stock corrects it hits the portfolio the most
- the bear and sideways markets , well i have spent a lot of time on this and my view is you should exit / partly exit in case of bear markets . Momentum portfolio will do extremely bad in these kind of markets , either take an technical exit or a exit based on market breadth or gold to equity ratio or find something which gives a exit signal
- SIP vs lumpsum – i have had difficultly with when to add capital once a move starts and hence i advice people to go with lumpsum investment with these kind of portfolios , see if a stock moves 2x … why would i add to it ? , instead what i do is … i only add to the newcomers into the portfolio whenever i want to add capital . it helps with peace of mind
- Tax – these are mostly short them investments and hence 15% tax rate we have to give every year despite reinvesting the profits . this makes a dent on overall returns compared to sip where only long term tax (10%) is taken
To conclude , momentum portfolios are good to support overall return of a portfolio only if you know when to exit . The last 10 years backtest has given me almost 4% additional cagr ( approx 19 to 20% ) compared to traditional investment like sip … also if you have exits the drawdown is pretty low compared to MFs .
Oriental Carbon and Chemicals Ltd (11-04-2024)
The demerger of the company has been approved by NCLT.
Update from OCCL to BSE: https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/005a60dd-15b0-484d-ad92-950c264d9d0f.pdf
Investing Basics – Feel free to ask the most basic questions (11-04-2024)
Management tone/confidence in concalls:
Was listening to concalls of Kfintech, Affle and Iris. The one thing that stood out was the extreme confidence of the management(s). Without going into too much detail all of them were very confident of growth, very bullish on Indian market, even more so on international markets, and not too worried about competition. Holy quadrafecta?
My question/feeling: All three are software companies that deal with international clients and hence their leaders have a good command of English. Which made it sound amazing and rosy.
For reference listened to Astral’s recent call. It was optimistic but the “performance” was nowhere near what I felt from Affle/Kfin/Iris. Especially Affle.
Maybe its the accent, or maybe its the quality of the audio(very clear for affle/kfin), I don’t know, but I am sold on Kfintech and Affle.
Perhaps reading the transcript is a better way to assess tone of management. Any thoughts are welcome.
Companies with 20%+ growth guidance for next few years (11-04-2024)
What about the companies with seasonality? Like with Agrochemicals companies for which sales in a specific quarter is more than the other quarters.
Companies with 20%+ growth guidance for next few years (11-04-2024)
Gravita India is another company which is providing a guidance of 25% revenue growth and 35% PAT growth over the next few years. A couple of things that support the management claim is as follows:-
- Historical growth of the company is in similar lines
- Government policy with BWMR and PWM 2022 can result in tailwinds in the industry
Also, a large part of the sector is unorganized. If it can shift to organized players over the next few years, this is a story that can play out pretty well.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (11-04-2024)
I can share my view.
Momentum strategies not necessarily involve only buying past winners, stocks which have just started to rise also come on the radar, and sometimes these could be big winners, which don’t lose their upward journey for months.
Pure price based momentum has its advantages, both w.r.t to capital and time. And, this can be done in many ways. For people who rely on pure systems, a lot of time is saved. Systems give results, no discretion involved, buy, book profits or losses as per the system. One can add factors that you have mentioned, but this can change the outcome. Perhaps when more capital is deployed, one can look at these factors, so as to not face bigger draw downs, and if this becomes a core portion of one’s investments.
Just like traditional/standard investing which can be done in many ways, this can be done in many ways too, and as with such investing, this too has a lot to offer w.r.t learning, experience, mistakes and of course profits.
You seem to be interested, if so, read this thread, this will give you a very good understanding of many things that pertain to doing this kind of investing, and much more, if you have not read already.
Read this in particular, from the above thread.
3B Blackbio DX Ltd (11-04-2024)
After CRISPER, here is a new technology that may have a disruptive effect on 3BBDx in future: Combination of optofluidics and nanopores technologies.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2400203121
https://news.ucsc.edu/2024/04/schmidt-pnas.html
Red Tape Ltd. – The next fashion giant? (11-04-2024)
Redtape at 720 seems richly valued & I have been reducing my position upwards of 700. Its a great Co./brand & can surely continue to perform well, but as profit booking is a part of the game, I am happy with the returns. It (Redtape) has been an awesome two year ride!!