But then with this logic, you wont be able to follow trend which is expected in momentum investing. All trends are always of such nature that pendulum moves in the extreme direction and ppl say good bye to logic. But thats essentially momentum and trend following. With this thinking you will remain a value investor
Posts in category Value Pickr
Is Buy and Forget a Myth? (05-04-2024)
Action construction equipment ltd (05-04-2024)
The base is already high when it went to Capex spending on infra went 11Lakh crore last year, so it only makes sense to have a more moderated growth in spending, increasing it at a rate of 25-30% CAGR isn’t sustainable, but you have to note that its already a high Capex spend, they are the market leader in crane segment, and ACE’s capacity can be increased much further when you compare them to other global leaders that manufactures crane. But the stock compounding at 40-50% CAGR from current levels, is an insane ask tbh The budgeted spending is intact and there are no issues with it as per me.
They will need more capacity, to deliver growth, they are currently incurring CAPEX, and also have set target to double revenues by FY26 or FY27 if I remember it correctly.
(Btw, what stock will do, no one knows)
disclosure : invested.
Ujjivan Financial – Small Finance Bank (05-04-2024)
Should one buy Ujjiivan Financial Services as proxy play for Ujjivan SFB?
UFS closed at 557 on NSE today. As the swap ratio is 116 shares of Ujjivan SFB for every 10 shares of Ujjivan FS. So 5570 spent on Ujjivan FS will get you 116 shares of Ujjivan SFB. That makes it roughly 48 rupees per share, as against current market price that is 55.9 per share. I certainly see this as an opportunity. Am I missing something? Please share you views. I have not studies Ujjivan stocks deeply, as some of the members here might have.
Sandeep’s Long Term Concentrated smallcap portfolio( Learnings and Mistakes) (05-04-2024)
Jamna auto was one of my earliest picks in 2017 . However unlike my other pick at the time KEI industries which seems to have a pretty long runway of growth Jamna auto has already captured the market and the margins are highest they have ever been . So for me the two avenues of growth -market share growth and margin expansion seems to be behind them.
Further there isn’t much capex from them .
So I shifted my position to a company which I think has a longer runway of growth Cholamandalam .
Godawari Power – Any Trackers? (05-04-2024)
People are comparing GPIL and Sandur ( In the GPIL thread, both belong to same sector). Is it like comparison between two business in same sector is not allowed ? Why one prefer over another with pros and cons is not allowed ?
Sandeep’s Long Term Concentrated smallcap portfolio( Learnings and Mistakes) (05-04-2024)
Curious about your sell decision on Jamna auto. If I look at the numbers, company has shown decent growth. Price hasn’t reflected that. No PE rerating despite earnings growth.
Cafe Coffee Day – Will you Date? (05-04-2024)
Company has failed to service debt again in March as disclosed in their filing today.
Market didn’t react negatively to the news infact stock closed strong.
But this red flag has totally changed my investment rationale.
I don’t see a point of being stuck in hope investment.
I’ll keep a watch on the stock, since I am extremely interested due to valuations of the company and it could be a potential take over candidate.
But for now marking an exit, till I develop conviction.
Ps: Not a suggestion.
Sandeep’s Long Term Concentrated smallcap portfolio( Learnings and Mistakes) (05-04-2024)
I normally start out with a bigger portfolio of about 10-15 stocks which I find promising. As I research businesses more , I keep selling companies which ,I don’t understand or whose business I don’t like or who are not performing business wise . I keep adding to my best bets and In the end I end up with 2-5 companies . So as per company performance improves or my assessment of the company improves I add to my position.
1.I am not much worried about monthly fluctuations in my portfolio . As long as the underlying businesses are healthy I am not much worried. However it still stings if portfolio value drops substantially but I think that is part and parcel of investing and you get used to it.
However If companies business deteriorates I try to exit.
2. I don’t look at price trends and I don’t think I can predict where I can take maximum profit. I have sold stocks at 70% below high value. I try to look at fundamental trends only. I have no idea about technicals.
3.If the stock is not moving but underlying business is improving I’ll add to my position. There is one caveat ,the company should have a reasonable long runway of growth(5 years minimum ) and the underlying fundamental parameters or the industry prospects should be improving.
Regards
Sandeep
Godawari Power – Any Trackers? (05-04-2024)
Any posts regarding Sandur should be posted on relevant thread.