Please look above in the thread. It has been explained before. @SP2022

@hitesh2710 @barathmukhi sir, thankyou for the names

I went through the entire thread of Vakrangee and manpasand and will go though all the companies you have shared

Atleast for these 2 companies they did not seem to have CG issues but were completely fraud, I have a small stake in SOM and I wanted to understand all the possible scenario of how things can go wrong.

So after reading these 2 companies the first question I got if they were fraud and their sales were fake, if u see my question it was with the assumption of numbers being true.

I immediately checked state wise excise revenue and found only for MP and their numbers seems to be genuine, though I would still file an RTI to get more clarity

Now you would ask why som when do many better opportunity- I think we dont find many companies in B2C , 30yrs since existence, in a business when out of 200rs revenue probability 120-130 tax (difficult to chori because you are the biggest contributor to state gov revenue), available very cheap

Though to be save and with all those wisdom in the threads of Vakrangee and manpasand I have taken a small position. I would be glad if you could have a look at my work on som which I posted recently

The cost of TYPE 2 error is high in market and there is always a price where everything is priced ( only if the book is not cooked so I am going to but every effort to verify their number)

would love if you can share me more examples of CG issues company which were not completely fraud

thankyou

we are also overlooking that ancillary revenues from CBG, Potash for fertilizers, etc
also there could be revision in tariff for bagasse based power so that more bagasse can be used for power generation and that is also renewable energy. no reason to keep the tariff at so levels of 3.5/ unit or lesser in some cases – these plants can be used for peak power supply in summer months. but govt policy is never rational or timely so may take some time to happen…
with all of the positives -even if some materialize there is huge upside of sugar companies. and they available at so low valuation.
even dividend yield in most cases will be more than 10 to 15%… and all have very low debt.

The only exit framework that I use is relative valuations / opportunity costs vs other avlb stocks etc.
It works well

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