Hey @mylu – what made you move out of BHEL? What did you find in the CAG report then?

Any idea about seasonally which quarter is the best for the company?

I agree that in terms of revenue the company has not shown any increase in pharma or healthcare.

Once again, I agree. We are not seeing any meaningful difference in realisation per kg polymer processed.

I am going by what the company has referred to in their latest concall. See the below screenshot. Amit is referring to how this market may grow to half a billion pens a year. But you are right. The company is totally dependent on how big a share of that market does Sanofi get or how much market goes to generic manufacturers who also then use Shaily’s products.

I think they took some time in trying to understand how to organise their business. For example they started the toy business a few years back and are now retreating from it. In the interim they also kept looking for a CEO but have now put that project on hold. They have recently done a capex of 100 crores specifically for Pharma and my guess is that they are now feeling confident of that getting converted to revenue real soon. Otherwise why would they sink so much money into capex which will lie underutilised for the next couple of years. But this is my optimism talking. Let’s wait and see what kind of revenue and profit starts getting generated from the pharma business.

Thank you so much for your prompt responses. Somehow the data is not matching for me. Is it possible for us to connect at tskambow@gmail.com?

PFC was looking overvalued in February / January 2024 with P/B > 1.5, which is much higher as compared to its 3-5-10 year Median P/B of about 0.75.
I think, such overvaluations in PSU NBFC was looking stretched hence the necessary correction seems to have happened. There is no fundamental reason as its Gross NPA are under control as reported in Q3 FY24.
Market was in a hurry to factor further improvement in its Gross NPA and hence the overvaluation was there, which seems to have been rationalized now.

It has compounded its Net Profits at 30% CAGR where as Share Price has has gone up at over 55% CAGR in past 3 years, indicating that Market has re-rated it due to Gross NPA reduction but it seems that now some rationalization is happening in its share price.

Disclosure: I was holding it from low levels but decided to book profits in Feb 2024.