https://twitter.com/riteshmjn/status/1767234859850711248?s=20
Macro understanding
Posts in category Value Pickr
E2E Networks Ltd – Listed small Cloud computing player (12-03-2024)
That is a 20% CAGR in capacity over the next 7 years
Hitesh portfolio (12-03-2024)
I think the actions of the regulator are good considering the excessive froth that was building up in micro, small and midcaps space. Each rally in a stock/sector needs some correction off and on so that excesses built up are shed. That is a part and parcel of rallies in stocks. Reason can vary from one company/sector to other.
I don’t try to read too much into reasons for corrections, because I feel if it was not reason X, then it would have been reason Y. If the stock has to correct, it will correct. In some of my own picks, I have seen decent corrections of nearly 30% from their recent tops. The run ups prior to these cuts were very sharp, and hence simply put, they needed for earnings to catch up.
Election has been a monkey on the back of markets. I think till that time we can keep seeing yo-yo kind of markets. A lot of the (up) trending small and midcaps have corrected and some of them are re testing breakout zones. This kind of consolidation can go on for some more time. It’s anyone’s guess.
@Vineetjain111 I don’t track Techno electric anymore.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (12-03-2024)
Sugar prices may spike up faster than anticipated as shortage is looming… it is inevitable in commodity business.
In long term sugar industry is looking good due to by-product usage and new uses like bio-chemicals. Bio-chemicals are necessary and will soon replace petro-chemicals (in a small way !!). Indian govt should have promoted this years back. Balrampur has started and others will follow. ENA usage is also increasing.
Govt should promote this industry instead of being fixated over controlling sugar prices – which is anyway not a big part of household expenditure – and no voters will not vote due to high sugar prices !!!
Sugar prices will never be low going forward.
Tata Investment Corporation: Unusual discount to NAV (12-03-2024)
So, at last, reversion to mean is happening in this counter.
Lets see how many LCs we get here.
Personal opinion
What’s the right price to enter? (12-03-2024)
Always try to protect the downside first.
- Check operating cash flow and debt
- Then check valuation parameters which depends on either book value or sales as a vast majority of companies are cyclical
If both parameters follow then check technical and previous results. If previous results are constantly bad and technical is bad do not buy. If previous results are bad but technical is good then do more research. If previous results are good but technical is bad then wait for rounding bottom up. If results and technical are both good but if cheap.
A lot of it depends on mindset also, navigation through share up and down is like navigation through life. Read Gita by (Swami Chinamayanada – VHP founder) or buy his video cassette to learn this. Chandrakant Sampath and his disciples like RK damani all attest to this truth
South Indian Bank (12-03-2024)
The stock price has corrected from almost a peak of 34 to CMP of 28ish. Is this the effect of rights issue? There is a fall in RE price as well. Can someone explain that the fall is because of the right’s issue or there has been some news around the bank which is causing the price to fall?
Hitesh portfolio (12-03-2024)
Dear Hiteshji,
Thank you for your sane thoughts for overall stock markets, individual stocks, to to take different situations in its stride.
How do you view the recent developments, impact of regulator oversigght in banks and other NBFCs? Also small and midcap universe is getting corrected/ swings widely these days? Your thoughts on current situation and view of market regulator that there is froth in small/midcap space. Also election can create hightened volatility. Also how are you dealing with your picks, especially if you hold any with more as a technical bet? Thank you.
Crestchem Ltd – Nutritional Chemical company (12-03-2024)
Hi Dhruv,
Yes Low promoter holding is a concern with the fact that till 2 years back they were loss making as well.
But at the speed they are correcting themself and focusing on products is what im bullish on.
Please note – Im observising this company finances and I would watch for next 2 or 3 qtr and promoters movement.
Cineline India – Picture abhi baaki hai (12-03-2024)
Cineline yesterday added 4 new screens
This seems to be in an upcoming area near Mohali. Can anyone local to Mohali or Chandigarh verify this?