Yes you are right
Even if they do 5000 crite it can be 30x with bonus abd split
Posts in category Value Pickr
Rajesh’s portfolio (28-06-2024)
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (28-06-2024)
It is just like coming out of home every day. You can have a serious accident any day ! But you don’t stop going on the road because historical data suggests that these are not everyday events.
You put on a stop-loss (i.e. seat belt ) ,avoid rash driving and keep a close eye on the road.
DIY Momentum QnA and Discussion (28-06-2024)
Afterall, there is no such guarantee that if we keep the momemtum stratgey pure and based on only price, then only we will be rewarded with higher returns. So why not use our already acquired knowledge to finetune this strategy?
Why some people insist on keeping it pure and maintain its sanctity? Is there anything to gain ?
DIY Momentum QnA and Discussion (28-06-2024)
When I get the top ranking list , first I will check if all stocks are in stage 2 or not. If some stocks are not in stage 2, then I will not select them, I will select the next one, even if it has high ranking.
Similarly , from fundamental angle, I will check if it has consistent sales and earnings in last 5-6 quarters atleast. Also I will check ROE and debt also, alongwith promoter holdings. If any of these parameters are not getting fulfilled, I will ignore it and select the next one.
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (28-06-2024)
@StageInvesting , So how to overcome this bias? And how to muster courage and conviction to deploy more funds?? What mental model or thinking pattern we should adopt to both types, known-unknown and unknown-unknown?
Business Quality: Calculating the Value Drivers of the business (28-06-2024)
yes
xlsx not downloadable
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (28-06-2024)
Known -Unknown Vs. Unknown- Unknown
Known- Unknown are the events where you know about the forthcoming event ( most of the times ) but you are uncertain about the outcome i.e. Budget / Elections /Small scams / Interest rate changes .
Markets generally correct 8-10% and then start the previous trend .
These kind of events are regular ( happen every 1-3 years )
Unknown-Unknown Where events are not predictable, they are sudden ,you’re neither aware about the forthcoming event nor its outcome .i.e. Covid / sudden wars / big scams .
Markets may fall 30-40% and future trend may be different than the previous trend .
These kind of events happen every 8-10 years e.g. early 90s/ 2008 / 2020
Common people are unable to make this distinction and they tend to remember unknown - unknown events more as fall is greater & serious wealth destruction happens - that’s why they are not able to commit big money in the markets .
Orbit exports (28-06-2024)
have been studying the company. few points
- If promoter has participated in buyback this time (and not before) then is surely means company has peaked.
- Sales and margins are stable so no more upside.
- As margins are high, competition could lead to margin reduction as it is not a branded / differentiated company.
At current price of 180 seems to be fairly valued with downward risk.
Bansal roofing products – Pre-engineered for growth (27-06-2024)
Sharing my notes from their recent concall.
FY24Q4 concall
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Incorporated in 2008, Unit I commercialized in 2012, Unit II commercialized in 2021 and Unit I was closed and operations were transferred to Unit II
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Engaged in Pre-Engineering Buildings such as construction of Factory sheds or Buildings, Showrooms, Warehouses. Have completed 250+ products
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Order booked until October 2024
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Unit I is rented out and earns 3.15 lakh/month
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Unit II capacity: 800 tons/month which can reach 2000 tons/month in 3-4 years(thereby reaching 200-250 cr. annual revenues)
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Capex will be done via internal accruals
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FY24 product mix
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Roll forming products (roofings sheets, purlins): 56.88%
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Structures (column beams / sheds from steel plates): 28.42%
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Coil trading: 8%
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FRP sheets, polycarbonate sheets, hardwares: 7%
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90% sales comes from Gujarat with remaining coming from UP, Bihar, and South India
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FY24 margins were lower due to lower prices (Steel price reduced from 80 in March 2023 to 57 in March 2024) and higher employee costs
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Have built 16-18 houses for ~80 labours and started canteen services
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Q1: Revenue was 28 Crs., tonnage was 787 ton
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Q2: Revenue was 26 Crs., tonnage was 501 ton
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Q3: Revenue was 25 Crs., tonnage was 980 ton
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Q4: Revenue was 24 Crs., tonnage was 1100
Disclosure: Not invested (no transactions in last-30 days)
Raymond – The Complete Man (27-06-2024)
Now that we expect the new shares to be listed in August (from their CFO in some interview), how will the price discovery work out (Raymond Ltd & Raymond Lifestyle)?