Thanks for the update.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Sula vineyards – pioneers in indian wines (09-06-2024)
Rajeev Samant has been continuously diluting his stake in the company, though in small instalments, but it really makes me a little nervous about the skin in the game. Is he indicating that the price has already reached the valuation which will not improve anytime soon and hence he is smartly diluting his stake? The Q4 results were a little soft as well and the company being the hyped “new drink category creator”, “pioneer of wine” “premiumisation of Indian drinking community” etc, how do you see the below 25% stake of the show runner?
KPI Green- Turning Sunshine Into Cashflows (09-06-2024)
This is one of the worst companies i have seen in CG. Reasons for this statement -
- Lot of related party transactions.
- Promoters putting capital in Subsidiary at lower valuations
- Promoters buying / selling stake in open market at regular intervals
- Promoters keep raising money - given its a Capital intensive business - at discount leading to dilution of EPS for existing shareholders
Only good thing about the company - Its in sunrise sector.
But i feel existing shareholders might have a hard time to make money from here in this counter.
Amtek was a similar case study. Amtek auto, Castex, MFL, ACIL, OCL, etc. went down (4-5 lac group) and had same things.
Butterfly Gandhimathi- from Ashes to Glory? (09-06-2024)
Seems a case of no promotor stake hurting the firm!
CG Consumer earlier with the Thapars was acquired by PE firms, Advent International and Temasek Holdings in 2015. However both PE firms exited in 2019 end, make 100% return in 4 years.
since then the growth was not great, which might have forced the management to go for acquisition of Butterfly. however the acqiuring multiples paid and the overall price paid was huge. Butterfly has corrected more than 50% since.
Strange but I bought Butterfly for the reason that it was trading cheaper to its merger ratio determined price and i wanted to take advantage of this arbitrage; and how post the shareholders of Butterfly refused to merge with CG Consumer, I took that also as a positive that they feel, their firm should hold better value and hence did not agree to merge… Shows my inability to change direction and starting to fall in love with your stock.
Sula vineyards – pioneers in indian wines (09-06-2024)
It literally states “Ratio of …” in the vertical column, it means the Executive Director is getting paid the salary of 8136 workers
Ranvir’s Portfolio (09-06-2024)
Windlas Biotech -
Company overview, Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -
Its a contract maker of generic formulations for Domestic branded companies, GoI ( Jan Aushadhi Kendras ) and also export generic formulations
Vertical wise revenue split -
Generic Formulations CMO Domestic - 77 pc of sales. Last 5 yrs sales CAGR @ 14 pc
Trade generics + Govt Supplies - 19 pc of sales. Last 5 yrs sales CAGR @ 42 pc
Exports - 4 pc of sales. Last 5 yrs sales CAGR @ 45 pc
Therapy wise revenue split -
Acute therapies - 34 pc of sales
Chronic therapies - 66 pc of sales
Product wise revenue split -
Complex generics - 64 pc
Conventional generics - 36 pc
Focus therapy areas - Respiratory, Anti-Diabetic, GI
No of manufacturing facilities @ 4. All 4 located in and around Dehradun. Dosage forms manufactured - oral solids, chewable, liquid bottles, sachet / powdered products, Injectables. Injectables facility commenced operations in Mar 24
Q4 outcomes -
Sales - 171 vs 141 cr, up 22 pc
EBITDA - 22 vs 16 cr, up 34 pc ( margins @ 13 vs 12 pc )
PAT - 17 vs 11 cr, up 48 pc
FY 24 outcomes -
Sales - 631 vs 513 cr, up 23 pc
EBITDA - 78 vs 60 cr, up 30 pc ( margins @ 12 vs 12 pc )
PAT - 58 vs 43 cr, up 37 pc
CFO > 100 cr for FY 24
Cash on books @ 206 cr as on 31 Mar 24
GoI planning to triple the number of Jan Aushadhi stores to 25k inside next 2 yrs. should act as major catalyst to the Trade generics segment
Company’s CMO - domestic vertical grew by 20 pc in FY 24 - that’s 3X of IPM
As company’s capacity utilisation grows (and specially for injectables segment which is a high margin segment) - company’s EBITDA margins should expand going forward
Guiding for 1000 cr topline in FY 26
Capex guidance for FY 25 @ 20 cr for expansion of Dehradun plant - 2. For FY 26, it should be around 30-35 cr
The Capex spend for the Injectable facility was @ 75 cr
Company’s trade generics segment generates greater EBITDA margins vs CMO for branded companies as the company gets to retain the distribution margins in addition to the manufacturing Margins
Govt’s focus on better quality of generic medicines and crackdown on non-compliant players is a structural tail wind for the company
At peak capacity utilisation, the Injectables facility can do an asset turns of 1.2 times ( so that amounts to 90 odd cr of annual revenues. However, the EBTDA margins here are > 15-16 pc )
Company’s expansion plans for medium - long term will be a mix of organic + inorganic - given the healthy cash flow generation by them
Company’s employee costs are in the 13-14 pc band vs Innova Captab’s 7-8 pc band. Company believes that employee cost is an investment
Company believes that complying with all GMP / Schedule M regulations is not easy for smaller non-compliant players. It does cost significant money and a complete change in operating mindset
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered
Wheels India Rights – Free money for minorities? (09-06-2024)
Wheels India reported good set of numbers. As management communicated in previous concalls margin improved to 8% in Q4FY24. 1% being contributed by discount by customers which normally gets accumulated in Q4.
Some points from concall
- Expecting flat growth in FY25. Possible to grow if market situation improves
- Planned capex of in excess of 200Cr across Wind components machining, cast aluminum wheels, earth moving & tractors, hydraulic cylinders and CV. All capex to be from internal accruals. If there is any moderation of capex, then 35-40Cr of debt to be retired.
- Business opportunity in Railways - Looks not really focused here. They don’t directly wok with railways. They supply to customers like Alstom
- Cast alloy wheels supply to domestic customer to start from Jun-24. Ramp up might happen in Q2 or Q3 of FY25. Since the ramp up has not happened, I believe this segment is not contributing to bottom line yet.
- Machining / Fabrication of Wind castings - Supplies to both domestic and exports. Ramp will be inline with ramp of customers.
- Monetizing of any assets / or rights issue to reduce the burden of interest - There is no non - core assets as of now to monetize. Will look for rights issue only for greenfield capex (as and when it happens).
Outlook for FY25:
Press release:
Q4FY24 - Investor PPT:
Rajesh’s portfolio (09-06-2024)
They have changed model to make it asset light and houses will be built by partners and they will focus on services, it is integrated player with products including digital products. They are just fulfilling 5% of demand pls refer to their presentation and from 2 to 5 and will go to all million plus cities in decades ahead. Longevity and aging with need of sr citizen health care is never ending trend hence it is permanent trend as they scale then profitability will shoot up , still two years away but will have operational leverage kicking in esp for digital and product side.
Digitization- A game changer for TV18? (09-06-2024)
Can someone please help me understand what exactly is happening in Tv18 & why is stock down 40%?
What is the latest nclt filing for?