They will be least affected as they already have one of the lowest ARPOBs
Posts in category Value Pickr
Sejal Glass – Turnaround (01-03-2024)
See 207 – 2010 Annual Report then follow up with 2011 Report (Float glass)
See 2013 and 2014 –>Secretarial auditors and Stat Auditors comments, With horrendous Float glass expansion failure a Glass company ventured in to real Estate? 3 Subsidiary were ventured into the same and funding provided did not see any revenue from there in Subsequent AR
Pre Ipo they stated Float Glass will be Import Substitute → After selling the same to Saint Gobain see the Import No.s they are decreasing as a % of sales! Questioning the Real reason why float glass expansion
2014 – 2022 4 Audtiors resigned and 3 CFOS changed!!
And the person who drove the company in NCLT is still running → Aarti Group isn’t involved in Daily Works
Many Red Flag → Space is extremely good, company is very good only anti thesis is person who is running the same is the person who was behind down fall of company between 2013 – 2019
Sula vineyards – pioneers in indian wines (01-03-2024)
In my opinion, Sula as a stock should not be evaluated only from the perspective of impending competition from imports. Sula is a play in a market where potential TAM can be 10x of current market size. if you are convinced that wine market in India can grow at 1.5-2x or more of the spirits market growth then all the concerns listed by you are secondary.
disclaimer: not invested but tracking.
Carysil (earlier Acrysil) – Kitchen sinks (01-03-2024)
Carysil ltd –
Q3 FY 24 results and concall highlights –
Revenues @ 188 vs 137cr, massive YoY jump of 37 pc
EBITDA @ 36 vs 25 cr ( margins @ 19 vs 18 pc )
PAT @ 15.3 vs 11.9 cr ( due higher tax outgo )
9M revenue split – geography wise –
Exports – 79 vs 78 pc YoY
Domestic – 21 vs 22 pc YoY
Product wise split of 9M revenues –
Quartz sinks – 50 vs 52 pc
Steel sinks – 11 vs 13 pc
Appliances – 11 vs 11 pc
Surfaces – 27 vs 25 pc
Company’s UK subsidiary – Carysil Products Ltd, clocked a 9M revenue run rate of 72 cr vs last yr’s 12 M run rate of 89 cr
EBITDA margins were adversely impacted due integration of United Granite LLC ( kitchen top fabrication company in USA ). From Q4, expect EBITDA margins to sustain at around 20 pc
Current Quartz sink capacity @ 10 lakh sinks/yr
Current Steel sink capacity @ 1.8 lakh sinks/yr
Company has opened 03 state of the art showrooms @ Mumbai, Gurugram, Ahmedabad – to showcase their full range of products including appliances
Company is trading and manufacturing ( some of them ) appliances like – Chimneys, Wine Chillers, Dish Washers, Hoods, Cook Tops, Microwave Owens, Built in Owens
Company’s current dealer network @ 3200, distribution network @ 85 in the domestic market
90 pc of company’s exports are on FoB basis. Hence the impact of Red Sea issue on company’s margins should be minimum
Company has tied up with the biggest retailer (ie Howdens UK ) of Kitchen Surfaces, Sinks, appliances, modular Kitchens etc in UK . They do an annual sales of > 25000 cr with an EBITDA margins of around 20 pc. They sell 10k Sinks / week. Company has received their first order from them. It’s a sizeable order !!!
Company’s new facility capable of manufacturing > 1 lakh Kitchen appliances / yr to be operational by end Mar 24
Commercial supply of SS sinks to IKEA to begin in Q4. Should be a reasonably good Qty
Q3 is generally a weak Qtr for the company due Christmas holidays. Q4 should see some sales and margins pick up
In India, company’s B2B business ( like selling directly to builders ) is looking encouraging. Confident of doing 200 cr topline from India business inside next 2 yrs. Hiring a lot of people in the B2B segment
Because of the Red Sea issue, the freight costs for the Chinese products have gone up even further. Its a kind of blessing for the company
The recent acquisition – United Granite LLC in US did a revenues of 15 cr in Q3. When acquired, this company was doing an EBITDA margins of around 10 pc
Company is bullish on its faucets and taps business. Compny’s products have received very good customer response. This business should also pick up going forward
Company’s guidance of 1000 cr topline may be achieved in FY 25 or latest by FY 26
Disc: had sold earlier at around 1100 levels. Have started buying again, biased, not SEBI registered
Natural Capsules – Pharma play with solid fundamentals (01-03-2024)
Think this Q result should confirm on this. I’m holding this until then.
The management is sweet on asking us to mail them for queries but don’t get back – It will be great if someone does.
Karur Vysya Bank (01-03-2024)
They r partnering with small / local Micro Fin Institutions to get a hang of the business. As they gain experience, they can then scale it up with their selected partners
Ranvir’s Portfolio (01-03-2024)
Disc: I ve trimmed my holdings in Narayen Hrudayalya and KIMS by around 40 pc. Both these were among my top 5 holdings. I did this because of the recent observations made by the Supreme Court on the pricing models of private hospitals
Although, I firmly believe that the observations made little economic sense and better sense will eventually prevail. I still sold – just to be safe. Plus, I was sitting on descent gains in both these stocks
Bought the following in lieu –
KVB
Federal Bank
Carysil
Time Technoplast
Surya Roshni
Akzo Nobel India
Steel Strip Wheels
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
52 week highs and all time highs strategy (01-03-2024)
Sir, I have been reading this thread and trying to develop my understanding around “52 week highs and ATH strategy” and I must say this thread is helping me immensely. Thanks a lot for sharing so much of information. Much appreciated.
Now coming to the query that I have on Time Technoplast: The stock tried crossing ATH and managed to cross it as well (made a high of 233.90) however it could not sustain there and the weekly candles which are getting formed are looking somewhat bearish. Does this mean the breakout failed?
If we look at the daily chart, then there seems to be the possibility of either flag getting formed or it could be handle of the cup as well.
Thus as per my understanding (which is currently being built by reading this thread) –
- The stock seem to be forming a good base (rounding bottom or cup & handle)
- The volume were high during the upmove and it is falling with lower volumes.
- The stock is trading near ATH level.
- Fundamentally as well the company is doing good and expected to do good by increasing contribution of VAP, reduction of debt. etc.
- The fundamental triggers were visible in the quarterly results as well.
So in such cases, what should be one’s approach? Should one wait for breakout to happen successfully or should one consider investing at these levels?
I am not seeing any investment advise by asking this question. The only purpose is to build the understanding of this “52 WH and ATH strategy”.
Thanks in advance for all your help and guidance to the fellow investors.
52 week highs and all time highs strategy (01-03-2024)
GPPL cmp 209 Monthly Dividend Adjusted Chart
crossing life high and 8 year Breakout
with highest Monthly Vols since listing Sep 2010
Higher Delivery Accumulation past few months as per Nse Data
Feb 2024 saw one of the highest delivery markings too
last few months Icici Pru fund was seller
December 2022 Icici held 8 % Eq
looks like selling pressure coming to get over
recent Announcements by A.P. MOLLER-MERCK
promoter of GPPL and strong sector tailwind
hoping long way to go… Stop loss 175
Ranvir’s Portfolio (01-03-2024)
Carysil ltd –
Q3 FY 24 results and concall highlights –
Revenues @ 188 vs 137cr, massive YoY jump of 37 pc
EBITDA @ 36 vs 25 cr ( margins @ 19 vs 18 pc )
PAT @ 15.3 vs 11.9 cr ( due higher tax outgo )
9M revenue split – geography wise –
Exports – 79 vs 78 pc YoY
Domestic – 21 vs 22 pc YoY
Product wise split of 9M revenues –
Quartz sinks – 50 vs 52 pc
Steel sinks – 11 vs 13 pc
Appliances – 11 vs 11 pc
Surfaces – 27 vs 25 pc
Company’s UK subsidiary – Carysil Products Ltd, clocked a 9M revenue run rate of 72 cr vs last yr’s 12 M run rate of 89 cr
EBITDA margins were adversely impacted due integration of United Granite LLC ( kitchen top fabrication company in USA ). From Q4, expect EBITDA margins to sustain at around 20 pc
Current Quartz sink capacity @ 10 lakh sinks/yr
Current Steel sink capacity @ 1.8 lakh sinks/yr
Company has opened 03 state of the art showrooms @ Mumbai, Gurugram, Ahmedabad – to showcase their full range of products including appliances
Company is trading and manufacturing ( some of them ) appliances like – Chimneys, Wine Chillers, Dish Washers, Hoods, Cook Tops, Microwave Owens, Built in Owens
Company’s current dealer network @ 3200, distribution network @ 85 in the domestic market
90 pc of company’s exports are on FoB basis. Hence the impact of Red Sea issue on company’s margins should be minimum
Company has tied up with the biggest retailer (ie Howdens UK ) of Kitchen Surfaces, Sinks, appliances, modular Kitchens etc in UK . They do an annual sales of > 25000 cr with an EBITDA margins of around 20 pc. They sell 10k Sinks / week. Company has received their first order from them. It’s a sizeable order !!!
Company’s new facility capable of manufacturing > 1 lakh Kitchen appliances / yr to be operational by end Mar 24
Commercial supply of SS sinks to IKEA to begin in Q4. Should be a reasonably good Qty
Q3 is generally a weak Qtr for the company due Christmas holidays. Q4 should see some sales and margins pick up
In India, company’s B2B business ( like selling directly to builders ) is looking encouraging. Confident of doing 200 cr topline from India business inside next 2 yrs. Hiring a lot of people in the B2B segment
Because of the Red Sea issue, the freight costs for the Chinese products have gone up even further. Its a kind of blessing for the company
The recent acquisition – United Granite LLC in US did a revenues of 15 cr in Q3. When acquired, this company was doing an EBITDA margins of around 10 pc
Company is bullish on its faucets and taps business. Compny’s products have received very good customer response. This business should also pick up going forward
Company’s guidance of 1000 cr topline may be achieved in FY 25 or latest by FY 26
Disc: had sold earlier at around 1100 levels. Have started buying again, biased, not SEBI registered