Hi @R_Sawkar
What is the screener tool you are using to filler out stock list ?
Regards
Posts in category Value Pickr
DIY Momentum QnA and Discussion (01-07-2024)
DIY Momentum QnA and Discussion (01-07-2024)
Hi @R_Sawkar
What is the screener tool you are using to filler out stock list ?
Regards
Gufic BioSciences Ltd (01-07-2024)
Gufic has been coming with quite muted numbers in past quarters along with huge pressure in working capital. Management is always very bullish, its good that the 100 cr. capital raise derisks their balance sheet significantly. Concall notes from last couple of calls below
FY24Q3
-
9M revenue breakup
-
Domestic: 56%
-
38% critical care (16% growth)
-
27% ferticare (19% growth)
-
24% mass market (14% growth)
-
5.5% Sparsh
-
Remaining aesthaderm (42% growth)
-
-
Exports: 18%
-
CMO: 23%
-
API: 3%
-
-
Critical care
-
Reached 1,500+ hospitals (50 government hospital)
-
Polyfic became #1 in Polymyxin-B injection market
-
Micafung was market leader in Micafungin market
-
Launched dual chamber bag with Merofic DCB
-
-
Ferticare
-
Launched Supergraf (ultra-purified HMG)
-
Recurrent implantation failure: launched Guficin alpha
-
-
Sparsh
-
Have reached 1,017 hospitals
-
Have increased frontline strength from 42 to 44 people
-
-
Healthcare, Stellar and Spark
- Good growth witnessed in DD1 group products including DD1 extended release
-
Exports
-
Approvals: UK (2), Australia (1), South Africa (1), Mexico (1), Nepal (4), Tanzania (3), Myanmar (2)
-
190+ registered products across regulated and semi-regulated markets, 150+ in pipeline
-
-
Capex
-
Commercialization & capitalization will happen in March end
-
Delay has been because they increase number of lyophilizers from 3 to 6
-
Indore capacity utilization will be 20-30% in FY25, 30-40% in FY26. In FY25/26, will sell in domestic markets. From FY27, once they get site approval for export markets, utilization will improve
-
-
Working capital cycle
- Inventory for dual chamber bag has started coming down. Will maintain 18-22 cr. inventory on a steady state scenario
-
R&D can reach 9-11% for Indore validation batches
-
Target to commercialize 2 products in USA via CMO in FY25, will start in USA as a CMO with a marketing partner
-
Prime bio collaboration: 60-40% profit sharing with 60% going to Gufic
-
175 cr. term loans + 150 cr. working capital limit (70-80% utilization)
FY24Q4
-
FY24 revenue breakup
-
Domestic: 58%
-
Exports: 20%
-
CMO: 21-22%. Should reduce to 15-17% in FY25
-
API: 4-5%
-
-
Critical care
-
Reached 2,000+ hospitals
-
25%+ market share in Caspofungin, Micafungin, and Polymaxin-B
-
Gained 15% market share in ceftazidime + avibactam market (2nd rank)
-
In-licensed a novel pain management solution from a Taiwanese company (patented until 2031) for India market (synthetic analgesic with mechanism like an opioid without associated side effects; doing phase 3 trials in India)
-
Launched Dalbavan, a second-generation lipoglycopeptide antibiotic used for serious bacterial infections
-
Have witnessed pricing pressure which has resulted in slower revenue growth (API pricing has also come down)
-
-
Sparsh
-
Have reached 1,400+ hospitals (30 SKUs)
-
Have increased strength from 44 to 66 people (expanded in Gujarat)
-
-
Aesthaderm
-
Zarbot is prescribed by 100+ neurologists
-
Botulinum toxin contributes 25 cr. (aesthetics + neuro). Another 5-6 cr. comes from other products
-
-
Exports
- 200+ registered products across regulated and semi-regulated markets, 150+ in pipeline
-
Capex
-
4 lines in Indore, will start filing in global markets in November 2024 and expect inspections in 2025
-
Spent 8-12 cr. on validation batches
-
-
Working capital cycle
-
Have extended longer working capital cycles to hospitals, nursing homes and infertility centers. This should reduce by 40-50 cr. by September 2024 and back to normal by March 2025
-
Seeing improved gross margins due to direct business with hospitals
-
-
Should do 950-1000 cr. sales in FY25 and 15-20% growth in next 3-4 years
Disclosure: Invested (reduced position size to <1%, sold shares in last-30 days)
Gufic BioSciences Ltd (01-07-2024)
Gufic has been coming with quite muted numbers in past quarters along with huge pressure in working capital. Management is always very bullish, its good that the 100 cr. capital raise derisks their balance sheet significantly. Concall notes from last couple of calls below
FY24Q3
-
9M revenue breakup
-
Domestic: 56%
-
38% critical care (16% growth)
-
27% ferticare (19% growth)
-
24% mass market (14% growth)
-
5.5% Sparsh
-
Remaining aesthaderm (42% growth)
-
-
Exports: 18%
-
CMO: 23%
-
API: 3%
-
-
Critical care
-
Reached 1,500+ hospitals (50 government hospital)
-
Polyfic became #1 in Polymyxin-B injection market
-
Micafung was market leader in Micafungin market
-
Launched dual chamber bag with Merofic DCB
-
-
Ferticare
-
Launched Supergraf (ultra-purified HMG)
-
Recurrent implantation failure: launched Guficin alpha
-
-
Sparsh
-
Have reached 1,017 hospitals
-
Have increased frontline strength from 42 to 44 people
-
-
Healthcare, Stellar and Spark
- Good growth witnessed in DD1 group products including DD1 extended release
-
Exports
-
Approvals: UK (2), Australia (1), South Africa (1), Mexico (1), Nepal (4), Tanzania (3), Myanmar (2)
-
190+ registered products across regulated and semi-regulated markets, 150+ in pipeline
-
-
Capex
-
Commercialization & capitalization will happen in March end
-
Delay has been because they increase number of lyophilizers from 3 to 6
-
Indore capacity utilization will be 20-30% in FY25, 30-40% in FY26. In FY25/26, will sell in domestic markets. From FY27, once they get site approval for export markets, utilization will improve
-
-
Working capital cycle
- Inventory for dual chamber bag has started coming down. Will maintain 18-22 cr. inventory on a steady state scenario
-
R&D can reach 9-11% for Indore validation batches
-
Target to commercialize 2 products in USA via CMO in FY25, will start in USA as a CMO with a marketing partner
-
Prime bio collaboration: 60-40% profit sharing with 60% going to Gufic
-
175 cr. term loans + 150 cr. working capital limit (70-80% utilization)
FY24Q4
-
FY24 revenue breakup
-
Domestic: 58%
-
Exports: 20%
-
CMO: 21-22%. Should reduce to 15-17% in FY25
-
API: 4-5%
-
-
Critical care
-
Reached 2,000+ hospitals
-
25%+ market share in Caspofungin, Micafungin, and Polymaxin-B
-
Gained 15% market share in ceftazidime + avibactam market (2nd rank)
-
In-licensed a novel pain management solution from a Taiwanese company (patented until 2031) for India market (synthetic analgesic with mechanism like an opioid without associated side effects; doing phase 3 trials in India)
-
Launched Dalbavan, a second-generation lipoglycopeptide antibiotic used for serious bacterial infections
-
Have witnessed pricing pressure which has resulted in slower revenue growth (API pricing has also come down)
-
-
Sparsh
-
Have reached 1,400+ hospitals (30 SKUs)
-
Have increased strength from 44 to 66 people (expanded in Gujarat)
-
-
Aesthaderm
-
Zarbot is prescribed by 100+ neurologists
-
Botulinum toxin contributes 25 cr. (aesthetics + neuro). Another 5-6 cr. comes from other products
-
-
Exports
- 200+ registered products across regulated and semi-regulated markets, 150+ in pipeline
-
Capex
-
4 lines in Indore, will start filing in global markets in November 2024 and expect inspections in 2025
-
Spent 8-12 cr. on validation batches
-
-
Working capital cycle
-
Have extended longer working capital cycles to hospitals, nursing homes and infertility centers. This should reduce by 40-50 cr. by September 2024 and back to normal by March 2025
-
Seeing improved gross margins due to direct business with hospitals
-
-
Should do 950-1000 cr. sales in FY25 and 15-20% growth in next 3-4 years
Disclosure: Invested (reduced position size to <1%, sold shares in last-30 days)
Phantom Digital Effects Limited (01-07-2024)
Haven’t the management given the clarification already? All of them are saying there receivables time is still 90-120 days, this receivables accounted for Feb and March as well. Even BFS was down but it seems like it is picking up now, but Phantom still is pretty low.
DCX Systems Ltd (01-07-2024)
Any idea why promoters sold their holdings in large quantities on June 24, since the future looks bright and they might be aware of pending orders?
Indian Defense Sector (01-07-2024)
Hello, everyone in this thread seems to be bullish for this cycle of defense sector rally and as we have seen in past overly bullish approach in any sector leads to disasters.
I will try to present my thesis as to why I think the valuations at the moment are stretched and very little to no valuation comfort lies which is contributing to a dangerous euphoria.
Defense Sector Red Flags:
- Indian defense sector is in itself at a nascent stage.
- We come no where close to the defense RnD spend done by countries like US, Russia and China.
- Defense sector in India is highly concentrated and dependent on govt. funding no private players exist which can give competition to big names such as HAL, Mazgaon Doc.
- Sector requires high capex before any additional set of revenue can be turned into profits.
- Intensive RnD lead sector.
- Since dependence on govt spending is key sector demands high growth in GDP to defense expenditure YoY.
- Govt policies have a strong say in spending and procurement of defense equipments, a coalition govt in centre may not be able to continue with the old growth plans although in the current scenario this is unlikely. A strong opposition also might scrutinise the defense deals leading to delays.
We will be looking at listed companies which are directly involved in making of arms, ammunitions, armoured vehicles, aircrafts, ships, frigates, UAVs, night vision devices, missiles, launchers and avionics.
The prominent listed companies along with their p/e and p/bv are: (P): PSU;
- HAL (P) - 46 ; 12xBV
- Mazgaon Dock (P) - 44 ; 14xBV
- Cochin Shipyard (P) - 42 ; 12xBV
- Bharat Electronics (P) - 56 ; 14xBV
- Data Pattern - 93 ; 13xBV
- Paras Defence - 182 ; 13xBV
- Taneja Aerospace - 141 ; 13xBV
- Bharat Dynamics (P) - 96 ; 16xBV
- Krishna Defense - 153 ; 14xBV
- Zen Technologies - 26 ; 5xBV
- DCX Systems - 60 ; 4xBV
- Bharat Forge - 85 ; 11xBV
- Garden Reach Ship Builders - 73 ; 15xBV
On current valuations the
- Avg pe: 84 vs historic avg pe: 32.3
- Avg p/bv - 12xBV vs historic avg p/bv: 4.5xBV
Apart from these very basic valuation metrics the order book scenario of major defense companies are below, these numbers are usually thrown around on the internet to show potential upside in top and bottom line, while this might be true in a bull run investors are often
A lot of these companies especially companies working solely in defence manufacturing are dependent on each other for components and survive through orders given to them by a bigger vendor. This poses a serious problem because if a bigger vendor is late on its payment it will have a tinkering down effect on the smaller players. Mutual fund houses also have recently launched their defense funds which is signalling exuberance in the sector.
The problem with order book led stock rerating is that while a 94,000 cr order book look monstrous from a bird eye view it might not be as attractive when the execution is done over a period of 2-3 years. Order book concentration is also something to be cautious about since a few orders in the pipeline may boasts the majority of the revenue posing a longevity threat.
What is important here is to look if the companies are going to substantially increase their revenue YoY while maintaining their margins, equally important is their profitability. Since the street tends to pay for the actual EPS growth when the froth settles down it would be dangerous to bet on stocks which tend to over estimate their growth in the next 3-5 years time frame.
Assuming all of the order book is executed on time without any operational delay and assuming the payment from govt comes on time and more new orders are procured we seem to be over paying for a lot of what these stocks are worth for.
For eg: Paras defence order book is 600cr at a market cap of 5561cr the mcap/orderbook comes close to 9.
DIY Momentum QnA and Discussion (01-07-2024)
The price action Remains same, do a paper trade on all these time frame strategies note down your do and don’ts apply that in your real trade, atleast 90 trading session required for paper trade you will definitely find good results. SL as per your risk appetite.
I don’t use SL, some may that is fine, try that also in paper with and without SL.
Pragnesh’s portfolio (01-07-2024)
Sure.
Give me some time.
Thanks
Marksans Pharma- Can it be the next Pharma Biggie? (01-07-2024)
What could be the reason for such a decline in US generic prices? also apart from this tweet is there any paper or research report which he shared?
Although I’m still bullish on Marksans given the kind of growth they have done and are further expecting in FY25-26 in US/UK markets, however this news if true might create some overhang on the fundamentals for few quarters.