do you follow similar momentum investment for micros ? or u have different approach ?
do you have a thread on it ? in case you are open to share for larger audience, i’d like to study recent entrant/exits at micros !
Posts in category Value Pickr
Smallcap momentum portfolio (26-02-2024)
Raymond – The Complete Man (26-02-2024)
Why Buy Now, Pay Later is making a comeback in the Mumbai real estate market? Even Raymond seems to making this offer
Smallcap momentum portfolio (26-02-2024)
@LarryWink Yes, I have a 25 stock pf based on Microcap 250 index.
Buy Unlisted Shares (26-02-2024)
Yes it is around 4000 now. 8% dividends. No 1 tech company of India, Undervalued.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (26-02-2024)
do you have similar momentum approach to microcap as well ? why i am asking, as i’ve few micros i would like to study recent exits and entrants.
Avantel (26-02-2024)
Promoter and MD continues to trim his holding.
Person | Quantity | Avg Price | Value in Rs. Lacs |
---|---|---|---|
Feb 2024 | |||
Vidyasagar Abburi | |||
Promoter & Director | -78,776 | 114.73 | 90.38 |
source: BSE | Inside Trading Disclosures
Godawari Power – Any Trackers? (26-02-2024)
It doesn’t matter much in overall scheme of things. India needs close to 200mnt of iron ore and that demand is growing at 7-8% so around 15-16mnt per year. Despite all these expansions, iron ore supply won’t over run the demand. Secondly, most of these companies are integrating into steel and steel can be exported in worst case. Here too the key driver of steel price is China’s exports. The key differentiation will come from cost of production.
Graphite Electrode : Graphite India/HEG (26-02-2024)
HEG Q3 FY24 concall Highlights
No growth in steel production worldwide
a. US is flat
b. EU has degrown by 7%
c. CN has subdued demand + excess inventory has been exported
d. currently electric arc furnace – upcoming capacity of 90 million tons, by 2025 40 Million tons of additional capacity will come online. Rest post 2025. Decarbonization of steel is a one way process.
Though margin pressure is going on, HEG has operated at 85% capacity for last 9 months on the 80000 ton capacity plant
Margin looks bad due to delay in passing price drop in needle coke. Usually takes at least a quarter. However margin pressure will remain subdued for the next 3 quarters
There is no inventory overhang and it is at stable level. So risk of an inventory right off is relatively low as per management.
HEG has the highest utilization in the electrode space~ 85%
getting subsidy on electricity from MP at a discount of 50 paisa. They expect the power cost to remain at 5.5 rupees per unit but this can go down to 4 as they are also looking out to buy renewables.
TACC – Construction has started and will get operational by June / July 2023
the major step is the process of making anode powder where HEG has experience from past . They will use the old furnaces to graphitize.
the next of the steps to create anode powder is mostly done by machines
TACC has been procuring 10 ton per month and evaluation with customers . They can see 50-60 GWh capacity being materialized in India.
competition (himadri etc. ) has not announced any capex in anode powder space.
they have indicated that they have the necessary expertise to produce anode powder. ( Which seems legit from my point of view )
Competition
industry is going through a lot of pain HEG is holding up
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Graftec has shut down 25000 ton capacity and has been reporting losses – https://ir.graftech.com/investors/news/news-details/2024/GrafTech-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023-Results/default.aspx
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Graphite India numbers are very poor and have been writing off inventory
Hitesh’s Portfolio (26-02-2024)
Hi shaktiji,
i sold off the nuvama shares at a decent price. I m still taking my time to know the individual business thoroughly and may re-enter. But im very much bullish on edelweiss as i like the management and their way of buliding business.
Thank you
Smallcap momentum portfolio (26-02-2024)
@vkediaonline Actually it is not a big effort once you know which stocks have undergone Corporate action. Once you have this info, modifying the sheet is very easy. The difficulty is in knowing which ones are changing. If the stocks that are seeing corporate action are part of the pf, we can catch it very easily. Otherwise, it is very difficult. We could end up with some stocks not finding a place in the portfolio due to this reason also.
You could get clean data from some sources; but this will mean money to be paid for this. This is not a commercial venture for me and hence, I am happy with me doing the work.
On variations, I think I have mentioned it previously. The few things I was considering
a. Add a 3 month look back period also and find the composite rank considering 3, 6m and 12m scores.
b. Changing the weightage between 6m and 12m. Currently, I am doing 50:50. This could be changed to 60:40 or 75:25 etc to give more weightage to recent price action. However, this requires lot of simulation effort to see if this makes any difference in the pf. I do not have that much resource. I might do this sometime in the future.