I have done some comparison with APL Apollo for volume growth and EBIDTA/ton.
Pace of growth has been phenomenal while maintaining EBIDTA levels.
Posts in category Value Pickr
JTL Industries – Fast Grower at an inflexion point (19-02-2024)
Atirek portfolio (19-02-2024)
I like the thought process. What do you think would be optimum percentage you would allot in the PF for a high conviction stock. And do you have a plan as to how much a median stock gets alloted in the PF.
Sula vineyards – pioneers in indian wines (19-02-2024)
No doubt that this is peak valuation if we go by sales figures, growth % and tax subsidy.
But wines seem to be on a long term track of adoption. I have heard many a times that India is not a wine country but things always change. With more women coming in work force (easy access to money), nuclear families (easy to keep wines on shelf at home), people becoming health conscious (even if its a perception that wine is healthy), sula vineyard becoming tourist hotspot and lot more wines on OTT & movies – wine has just one way to go as far as adoption is concerned. Sula being market leader should also gain sales / profitability.
It seems to be a multi decadal opportunity, hence invested from 3xx levels.
PayTM (One 97 Communications Ltd) (19-02-2024)
Thanks @rpattabi
FLDG means “First Loss Default Guarantee”, when a fintech compensates lenders for loan default.
See this: RBI gives green signal to first loss default guarantee (FLDG) framework; here’s how will fintech, banks, NBFCs benefit | Mint
just checked PAYTM press release: https://paytm.com/document/ir/financial-results/fy2021-22/Paytm_Operating_Performance_Update_Dec21.pdf
No FLDG has been given.
so if no FLDG and contingent liabilities just 60 cr… then they have $1 billion cash. Thats a LOT of cash
so imagine Paytm from this perspective: its a NEW startup with following –
- App with more than 100 million monthly active users.
- Very high Top of mind brand recall in all urban cities.
- Superb payment gateway and UPI QR code technology. 8million + soundbox merchant users
- Aprox 7% stake in PayPay – No. 1 payment company in Japan (co promoter SoftBank and Yahoo Japan).
- INR 8300 CASH warchest.
THIS startup is currently trading at just 2.74x of its cash reserves (mcap of ₹ 22,773 Cr. or $2.74 Bn).
Does Paytm merit a small % of your portfolio?
I think PAYTM now needs to use its cash wisely, maybe even buy some other cos.
Disc: invested in small qty for tracking.
Tata elxsi (19-02-2024)
Thanks for the kind words. I’ll attempt to write something in due course, in the meantime I’ll try and increase the frequency of my posting in companies I’m invested in or are of interest to me.
Also, tbh the rest of my pf performance is avg at best, definitely index beating over 11 yrs of investing in stocks directly, but I’m confident it’ll get better as time progresses, lot of my latest investments haven’t quite clicked, learnt the hard way that you can’t buy a company at any valuation and still make money, contrary to what a certain market pundit makes you believe. Even if that approach works it’ll take a decade to reflect in the stock price, so biding my time and letting my edge play out.
Okay, I’ll take this discussion and my philosophical gyan of this board and post only about the company, cheers 
Hitesh portfolio (19-02-2024)
Hi Hitesh,
Followup on snowman with a question.
I can see “Wycoff Spring” (something I heard from you in Time Techno ) in the Snowman Logistics daily chart.
However, The spring can be seen when the overall small/Midcap was under pressure. Would you Ignore this structure of the spring because of the market conditions or can it be considered valid?
Aside the 10WMA is currently at 68.16.
PayTM (One 97 Communications Ltd) (19-02-2024)
Paytm’s balance sheet shows these. I usually look at Investments and Cash Equivalents.
Screener shows about ₹60 crores as Contingent Liabilities.
They do.
They do this too since the beginning of this episode.
I don’t know what is the meaning of FLDG default share. Someone who knows about this can help.
Sula vineyards – pioneers in indian wines (19-02-2024)
Sula Vineyards dips 7% on likely exit of Verlinvest in Rs 676.6-cr block deal (moneycontrol.com)
-Results are also not very good. management saying one time rise in S&D expenses.
- Goa sales week due to cancellation of licenses etc.
-Hopeful about Q4 and peaking of S&D expenses.
-launched new cans for easy storage and consumption. new Cat
-did not like the use very pleased in every other line wherein the performance is avg overall.
-like the wine sector and sulas placement in it. some tax issue to be clarified soon in maharashtra cabinet meeting.
disc : invested
best
divyansh
Quess Corp – Human Resources Company (19-02-2024)
Given the information that has come out on the demerger, is it possible to know what would happen to the existing share holders of Allsec ?
PayTM (One 97 Communications Ltd) (19-02-2024)
Many reports say PAYTM has $1bn cash reserves… thats INR 8300 crore. example this source: Jefferies Stops Coverage on Paytm Until Regulatory Issues Ease – BNN Bloomberg.
is there anyway to confirm this figure? what are contingent liabilities ? like any FLDG default share etc?
If this INR 8300 Crore cash reserves is true, then they can use even Rs 300 crore to do a mass media + on ground sales outreach campaign creating awareness to lacs of merchants that only the payments bank will change, everything else works same.
The rest of issues, can be shown a message on the app itself, like fastag users.