Yes, radico is a good benchmark for valuation purposes I feel.
(My second last post was in reference was to someone’s post where wrongly assumed sales projections for Indri were stated)
Posts in category Value Pickr
Ujjivan Financial – Small Finance Bank (08-02-2024)
Earlier merger was supposed to get over by November 23, now it is already shifted to April 24.
There is no major concern, as you mentioned both the entities are under same management, but some irritation as management commentary and timeline does not match the actual notices narration and timeline.
Tracxn Technologies (08-02-2024)
Hi Aadhar,
Thanks for sharing the detailed post and insightful thoughts.
I have a question on the possibility of scaling top line with cutting interest rates and more funding flowing to private market. Is tracxn’s top line proportional to private equity funding or number of customers deploying the funds? In other words, if interest rates reduce, and as more funding flows in, it may be coming from the same set of customers who already have accounts with Tracxn. So they do not need to open more accounts. Therefore, while funding may grow, Tracxn’s top line may not since number of individual PE / VC firms may increase. More funding in PE space may simply come from most of Tracxn’s existing customers. So, while there may be some increase in the top line with easing interest rates, do you expect a big jump?
By the way, your bull case optionalities do seem real business cases and wish Tracxn management is thinking on those lines.
Coal Gasification with Carbon Capture could be a game changer for India-Shifting Coal from an Energy Commodity to a Chemical Feedstock (08-02-2024)
There are three different technologies for natural gas methane production from coal – (1)the two-steps method, (2) the hydrogenation, and (3) the catalytic coal gasification,
1st and the 3rd method has been used commercially in China and many other countries and the second method is still under development
(1) The first step is to convert coal to synthesis gas (CO+H2) and the second step is to use CO2 and hydrogen for the natural gas synthesis.
(2) For the hydrogenation, coal is directly gasified with hydrogen to produce natural gas.
(3) For the catalytic coal gasification, the catalyst is used to accelerate the gasification reaction rate and in-situ methane synthesis
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258891332100020X#b0030)
Manappuram Finance (08-02-2024)
Key takeaways:
Financial Performance:
The net profit increased by 46% year-on-year, reaching 575 crores.
Gold Loan saw an 11.5% year-on-year improvement, totaling 20,758 crores.
Standalone AUM for NGT grew by 23% to 27,407 crores.
Consolidated AUM reached 40,385 crores, a 27% increase over the previous year’s quarter.
The recorded ROA for the quarter was approximately 5.2%, significantly surpassing the industry average.
Ashirwad, the microfinance subsidiary, achieved an AUM of 11,563 crores, representing a 34% year-on-year growth and a Q3 profit of 127 crores, an 80% increase year-on-year.
The vehicle finance business experienced a 70% year-on-year increase, reaching an AUM of 3,597 crores.
Home loans showed a 41% increase over the previous quarter in FY23, with an AUM of 1,415 crores.
profit of 28 crores was reported from the fee-based business.
Current Operational Performance:
Standalone GNPA increased to 1.99% from 1.56% in the previous quarter.
Cash and cash equivalents on a consolidated basis totaled Rs. 3,076 crores, with an undrawn bank line of Rs. 7,138 crores.
Collection efficiency for the quarter was 98%, with GNPA at 2.6% for vehicle finance.
For home loans, collection efficiency was at 96%, with GNPA at 2.67%.
Collection efficiency was at 102%, with GNPA at 1.5% for MSME and allied businesses.
On-lending AUM amounted to Rs. 1,022 crores, with a 5% ROA for the quarter.
The consolidated net worth was Rs. 11,063 crores, with a book value of Rs. 130.70.
Future Outlook:
Anticipates a similar increase in the cost of borrowing in Q4 due to the circular that raised the risk rate on consumer credit exposure of NBFC lending.
Confident in achieving top-line and bottom-line growth while maintaining adequate liquidity.
Foresees a reduction in the surplus in auction, allowing for branch expansion.
Concerns:
Elevated credit costs in the microfinance business due to delays in collections in certain states.
Increase in the cost of borrowing due to the circular that raised risk rate on consumer credit exposure of NBFC lending.
Other Points:
The company has applied for 300 branches and is hopeful of getting permission for expansion.
E2E Networks Ltd – Listed small Cloud computing player (08-02-2024)
This article speaks out the opportunity in cloud computing field. Big Coprorate Houses ( Reliance, Tata, Adanai) are also joining fray. The Article states :
“Establishing infrastructure, acquiring thousands of GPUs, and setting up a server room may seem straightforward. There is no entry barrier there. However, the true challenge lies in software, sustaining and scaling these operations. Although numerous Indian startups may enter this domain, not all will thrive in the long run. Some are likely to face the heat and eventually be acquired by major players such as Tata, Reliance and Adani,” Trivedi predicts.
E2E Networks may have early mover advantage, however, competing with deep pocket hyperscaler could be a tough job. But, some solace can be extracted from the fact that pie size itself is increaring and there may be sufficuent space with like of E2E Networks.
Disclosure: Invested
Oil India- has its time come? (08-02-2024)
So … Mohit/Others
I would like to believe below 3 elements that may have gone unnoticed six months ago are now in focus ? :
- Dividends from IOC
- Income from NRL refinery
- Projects like India-Bangladesh pipe & Indradhanush pipe
Oil India cmp have doubled since June-23, currently hovering around Rs. 500 from Rs. 250. What could be propelling this sharp, one-way trajectory ? Do you think there’s more steam left?
Has oil india started working already on to green energy ?
I’d also wish to understand cyclic business of oil india and current phase of it, in case someone may enlight !
D-Invested
Som Distilleries and Breweries (08-02-2024)
that was due to preference shares allotment.
Krishca Ltd : A SME offering steel strapping Solution (08-02-2024)
Attended the Q3 FY24 concall yesterday.
FEW HIGHLIGHTS : –
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Commercial production from new plant will commence from the end of this month (FEB 2024).
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Revenue potential from both plants, combinedly, is Rs. 300 crs from strapping sales only apart from packaging contracts. Management is optimistic on achieving it by next three years.
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From packaging contracts, Rs. 100 crs revenue is possible within two years apart from strapping sales.
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For FY25 company has Rs. 10 crs of packaging contract in hand and company is participating in various tenders of packaging contract worth Rs. 300 odd crs.
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The company has generated 16% of sales from export up to 9M FY24.
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In middle east, the company is losing Rs. 35 odd crs of orders yearly from Chinese and Korean competitors because their products are cheaper there.
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So, Company is planning to set up new production line in middle east, to compete from Chinese and Korean companies there, through joint venture. This project will be financed through internal accruals and issue of preferential shares etc.
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The company is diversifying into other primary packaging solutions also apart from steel strapping solutions. That is the reason for appointing Mr. Jagajyoti Naskar as an additional director of the company, who has 24 plus years of experience in this field.
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The company will do concall after every quarterly result.
Disclosure:- invested.
Coal Gasification with Carbon Capture could be a game changer for India-Shifting Coal from an Energy Commodity to a Chemical Feedstock (08-02-2024)
Is it possible to have a list of contributory processes for Coal to Methane Steps.