Delhivery:

• Daily | Cup n Handle
• 200DEMA trending up
• Today [Jan 31, 224] price up ~5% with relatively good volumes
• Price approaching the resistance zone from 464-490
• Q3FY24 results on Feb 02, 2024

Disc: Holding an old position.

PF update for Jan 2024

While the bull market keeps doing bull market things, the core of my PF remains almost intact, but almost the entire sub 5% portfolio churned, and some more in the past few months.

10%+
Sunteck Realty
Caplin Point
3B Black Bio

7-8%
PDS Ltd
Neuland Labs
Ugro Capital

5-6%
Geekay Wires
Kalyani Cast Tech
Coastal Corp

3-4%
Ducol Organics
Marine Electricals
IZMO
Phantom FX

<3%
NR Agarwal
Shilchar Tech
Prop Equity
Vadilal Industries

Top 6 positions are almost 60% of the PF. I’ve held all of them for 12-24 months, and have added to some along the way. This doesn’t mean that these positions will stay in the PF forever though, I am happy to sell on any break in thesis, medium term headwinds or better risk-reward elsewhere. It is crucial to maintain objectivity and not get married to stocks. This is easier said than done, and I am still learning the art of being ruthless.

Lowest absolute return among the top 6 positions is Ugro at 1.7x. Highest is Neuland at over 5x. The big lesson gets reinforced again – position sizing and riding winners is the ultimate truth and is MUCH more important than stock selection. Even after such a magnificent run, Neuland is still not a double-digit position as I had sold half of the original allocation on 2x for no good reason, except that I thought I’ll buy it back lower.

It was even worse with Geekay, where I sold 80% of the original position between 2x-3x, and it is now almost a 7x! Not selling these would have meant at least an additional 30% PF value today. Obvious lesson, but hard to implement. I’m slowly getting better at it, I think.

Recently sold a core position Equitas after HDFC results – I sense a deposits war as HDFC goes nuts trying to grab them from everyine else. I had held Equitas pre reverse merger. Still like the company and hope it does well, but I don’t see favorable risk reward in most banks for the time being. I may add it back in the future.

The sub 5% space has been my trading portfolio of sorts. While the music is on, one’s got to dance. Recent super profitable short term trades have been Bharat Bijlee, Bajel, Gujarat Themis, Avanti. Flat trades were Mold Tek Tech, Dollar, Capacite.

As always, I’d invite you to critique these positions. I am actively looking for disconfirming evidence, especially now with markets going through bouts of euphoria.

BEL IAI MOU

What else have you found, @vineet_mittal ?

CFO to EBITDA is pretty low for this company and it is very inconsistent across the years. Can anyone explain why?