Problem with 5 year CAGR is the covid impact from Apr20 till atleast CY21 season and hence I would not like to look at that. But yes what you are saying is correct qualitatively because people started touting it as the next Titan! And hence it went to a PE of 90 with not more than a 15% sales growth irrespective of the Covid-19 impact.
If at all, this should be more like a 40-45 PE stock at max considering it has good return ratios (GM, OCF to EBITDA, ROE) and a possible sales growth of 20% in the future.

My personal view. Invested in the stock and biased.

Praj starts making Jet fuel

https://www.financialexpress.com/business/industry-praj-industries-starts-making-jet-fuel-from-alcohol-3372147/

Taking a short cut here with this genuine question as I haven’t looked at the company in recent times.
What has changed form UFO of 2016-2023 to UFO of today?
Has the business model changed?
If they weren’t able to grow then, then what has changed for them to be able to grow now?

Thanks.

Agree, DBOL concall was very informative about the company and the industry.

Few key points:

1. Cost reduction : Increase in recovery rate (by 0.9 to 1%) will more than compensate increase in cost due to SAP price increase. As 0.1% recovery increase translates into cost reduction by Rs 0.35 per kg of sugar so due to 1% increase in recovery cost will come down by Rs. 3 and cane cost will go up by Rs. 2 so effectively margin will increase by Rs. 1 per kg. So on 4.5 lac ton sugar it should be Rs. 45 crs.

2. Revenue growth : Sugar prices will not jump but will increase to the extent of SAP increase ( which implies by Rs. 2 /kg) – even if Re 1 increase in price of sugar will translate in Rs. 45 cr for the year.

3. Cane crushed for full season will be 5 to 7 % higher than last year

So all in all, DBOL profits should be at least Rs. 100 cr higher than last year – on account of recovery improvement, cane volume increase and sugar price increase. Even if sugar prices dont increase the increase in profits will be Rs. 50 crores. Post depreciation increase/ other costs annual profit should be 150crs – EPS of 23 which is similar to Dhampur sugar). At a PE multiple of 10, fair value should be Rs. 230.

Further, if they convert the ethanol plant to dual fuel and maize is available at reasonable price then ethanol volumes and profits will be higher.

Please comment – agree/ disagree…

Cipla has broken out of its Flag and Pole pattern and also its 52 weeks high. It has consolidated enough before the breakout, hence the trend is very strong. The targets are close to 1650-1700.