There is a huge out patient also which doesn’t get captured in Arpob

i for one do not trust wind/solar gen projection nbrs. smart move by them considering plf of wind generation

Can we not focus on such stocks which are already discovered but yet not achieved maturity and hence still a 10-15 years of growth left in them , before they become stagnant? May be yhose who are in midcap category , they can definately give , if not 100 bagger but surely 10 bagger returns, ans with less volatility and more predictability. They are easier to ride on.

they want to focus on improving the throughput of patients. Does not get captured accurately in ARPOB. Focus is on improving (decreasing) ALOS. Therefore, the use of database and technology etc, to reduce redundancies in journey of patients. This way more operations can be done. Sweating the physical assets like OT etc.
This is also why focus on total beds in the infrastructure has also reduced. Must but only one variable of growth equation.

Supriya Lifesciences –

Q2 FY 24 and company Highlights –

Revenues – 140 vs 112 cr
EBITDA – 32 vs 29 cr ( margins @ 23 vs 25 pc )
PAT – 24 vs 17 cr ( due lower tax outgo )

Geography wise sales breakup –

Asia – 35 pc
Europe – 44 pc
LATAM – 13 pc
North America – 4 pc
Others – 4 pc

Therapy wise sales breakup –

Analgesics/Anesthetics – 50 pc
Anti Histamines – 13 pc
Vitamins – 12 pc
Anti Asthmatics – 7 pc
Anti Allergics – 6 pc
Anti Malarials – 2 pc

Company produces a Niche product basket of 38 APIs. Exports them to 85+ countries

Company is the largest Indian exporter of 3 key APIs –

Chorpeniramine Maleate – Anti Histamine, used to relieve symptoms of allergy, fever

Ketamine Hydrochloride – An Anaesthetic

Salbutamol Sulphate – Used to treat Asthma, respiratory blockages etc

15 of company’s products are backward integrated and represent 72 pc of company’s revenues

Share of top 10 customers out of the total revenues – 45 pc

Company maintains 04 different manufacturing blocks – separated therapy wise. Land already acquired for future expansion

Total reactor capacity at 600 KL. Current capacity utilisation at 70 pc

Company’s facilities are recognised by key regulators – US FDA, PMDA, ANVISA etc

Company has already filed for 15 additional APIs with USFDA. This shall take care of company’s future growth prospects

Last 5 yrs –

Revenue CAGR – 13 pc
PAT CAGR – 18 pc
Leverage @ 0.03 pc

Company’s R&D centers at Lote Parshuram, Ambernath are involved in identifying APIs that will complement company’s current product profile. These centers are also engaged in lifecycle management and backward integration of existing products

Additional work is underway to set up 5th manufacturing block at Lone Parshuram which will have the capacity of 340 KL !!! Likely to be operational by Q4, FY 24

An additional manufacturing facility of 90 KL with a new R&D facility at Ambernath shall also come up by Q4, FY 24

All this will take company’s total manufacturing capacity to > 900 KL

Q2, FY 24 Concall highlights –

Company expects to generate a topline growth of 20 pc over the base of last FY ( that would mean, sales touching the 550 cr mark by end of FY 24 )

Tax rate for full FY to be around 26 pc

Company is practically debt free

Lower margins in Q2 due change in product / geography mix ( basically greater sales in semi-regulated and emerging markets )

Aim to maintain 28-30 pc EBITDA margins for full FY 24

Sales mix –

Exports : domestic – 81:19 pc
Regulated : semi-regulated – 46:54 pc

Most of the sales growth in Q2 attributed to volume growth

Generally, H2 is better than H1 for the company

In H1 … outside the top 4 products, the next 8-9 of company’s products did see a lot of traction in semi regulated markets and hence the strong volume growth

New products where the company is focussing are in the therapy areas of – cardiovascular, anti-diabetic and anti-anxiety products

Don’t expect any incremental volume growth from China business for next 2-3 yrs

Company is co-developing 02 revolutionary products with Kalinga university – oral cancer detection kit, fast wound healing gel. Both these are novel products and have already been developed at – lab scale. Expect Supriya to take them commercial inside 3 odd yrs. These can generate significant revenues for the company ( > 500 cr ). Company intends to manufacture them and out license them to global Pharma Majors

LATAM countries are aggressively pursuing procurement from countries other than China. This is likely to act as a huge tailwind for the company Management reiterated the same on multiple occasions

Expecting to grow revenues at rates > 20 pc for next 2 yrs as well

Disc: initiated a small tracking position, not SEBI registered, biased, not a buy/sell recommendation