Ys. Its a good contra view to consider. However, we have to assess the risk benefit ratio. If the above scenario existed when the share price was very low instead of being so high – close to 52 weeks and perhaps all time highs, then the risk benefit in my view tilts towards risk
Posts in category Value Pickr
Forensics and the art of triangulation (23-11-2024)
Prima facie view : Poor operating cashflow, 33 Cr receivables.
Virtuoso Optoelectronics Ltd – A promising micro Cap (23-11-2024)
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Guidance of 8-10% for blended EBITDA margin.
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Lightning products have higher margins compared to appliances.
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Preferential allotment shares will be listed by next September due to conflicting guidelines of the BSE.
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Reciprocatory compressors have an annual domestic demand of 2 crore units. The company is setting up 28 lakh capacity at peak utilization, having a 7-8% EBITDA margin.
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The domestic AC market has shifted to rotary compressors, while reciprocatory compressors are primarily used in refrigeration and commercial applications.
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Voltas has booked 70% of AC capacity.
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The company is developing a controller board for EV chargers with an EBITDA margin of 13-15%. It might contribute 3-5% in sales.
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Aspirational guidance for FY26 is 1000-1200 crore.
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FY25 guidance is 700-750 crore, with a hope of achieving a slight increase.
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Voltas plans to relocate some of its capacity to in-house manufacturing beyond FY27. If capacity is not booked further, management will explore alternative vendors.
Valuation:
| FY | Sales | NPM | Net Profit | PE (at CMP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 800 | 2% | 16 | 55.88 |
| 2026 | 1200 | 2% | 24 | 37.25 |
Forensics and the art of triangulation (23-11-2024)
There is a company called urban enviro waste management which is growing at 50%+cagr, available at 19pe and has positive operating cash flows. I was unable to find any red flags in the company, but there must be something I am missing because I am unable to find the reason why is it trading so cheap compared to its growth. Can some forensic/red flags expert find any red flags or discrepancies which the company may have?
Thank you.
Not a buy/ sell recommendation
Antony Waste – Long Term (23-11-2024)
What are your thoughts its peer Urban enviro waste management? It is an sme
Company with 200cr market cap. It is growing sales and profits 50%+ cagr , available at 19pe and also has positive operating cash flows. I was unable to find any red flags in it, is anyone able to figure out why is it trading at such a cheap valuation compared to its growth? No buy or sell recommendation.
Websol energy system ltd (23-11-2024)
Hi,
Yes. It will affect Websol in the long run but not immediately as good margin is available in DCR market. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers have few hurdles to comprehend.
- Loss making should be stopped. To achieve this, Either a) full installed capacity has to be utilised or b) Price hike has to be done.
a) is ruled out as they already struggle with over capacity. b) is a possibility but it is always better to sell the inventory at a lower price ( next one year) than seeking price hike which may lead to shutting the shops.
So, Ultimately the Chinese export capacity will comedown in future which will result in increase of input material cost for Indian players.
With the above scenario, Indian Module only players will find it difficult to pass on the price increase to buyers in India whereas Cell players/ fully backward integrated ones will enjoy the margins as the gap between Chinese and Indian Cells with help of DCR, ALMM List II would have become narrow which will pivot EPC, IPP and other buyers towards Make in India products.
2). US/EU export market of china is already affected due to regional policies. It is a boon for Indian manufacturers to get better margins there in future.
In any case, Indian Cell manufacturers will enjoy the dream run minimum till FY2028 due to scarcity of Make in India cells.
Antony Waste – Long Term (23-11-2024)
couldn’t agree more. My two cents is – C&T is a cash generating machine which will not stop for 7-8 years as it is contract based and has good barriers of entry. What they do with Waste To Energy is extra cream, which gives optionalities for the future.
D – invested since 250/300 Rs
Prakash Industries Ltd. (Prakash) (23-11-2024)
The Company is pleased to inform that the Government of Chhattisgarh had executed the
Mining Lease yesterday, which has been duly registered today in favour of the Company
for mining of coal over a period of 30 years for its Bhaskarpara Commercial Coal Mine in
District Surajpur. Now, the Company will start overburden removal by next month and
thereafter the coal extraction is expected to commence in the next quarter.
The supplies of coal from this mine shall provide stability to the Company’s Integrated
Steel operations as well as result in significant cost reductions. Additionally, this being a
commercial mine, it shall also boost the revenue and the profitability through sale of coal in
the open market.
Q: email notifications on new topics / ‘follow’ a user (23-11-2024)
This took me a bit to figure out so if its helpful for anyone. The setting for notification when someone replies is disabled by default and you have to enable it. Go to Preferences → Notifications and enable the appropriate checkboxes.
