Random thoughts

Thinking over my current portfolio set up around 20% is in common FMCG names like Marico, Godrej consumer, Dabur, Britannia all of which had been a quick 3-5x for me (baring a Dabur) and since then have been stagnant for 2-3 years or maybe even more…

I am doing this check for only those FMCG names I have been holding long term & which have not performed well since covid recovery and couple of bull markets we had since then…

Things to ponder –

• Had it been better to have sold them off at first signs of consolidation 2-3 years back and jumped ship to another sector. I would have loved it had 20% of my this portfolio would have been in excellent companies of Capital goods, engineering …maybe a simple L&T large cap would have been an excellent purchase 2-3 years back…or an ABB!
• I might have fared much better if I switched ship but not sure if had been on my toes currently on when to sell, when to sell, when to sell the new names!!
• My current portfolio has beaten nifty pretty well over long term (not sure about midcap index though) with this 20% and another 10% in Insurance etc. Sectors not doing anything last 3 years or even more (thanks to some other names which made up for them)…Is that a good thing or bad, only perspective can tell…I can be sad thinking these laggards pulled me down or be confident that when these also start performing, I would do much better…

Thoughts are so very cyclical…inherent nature is probably not…lets see…

Yatra Business : Key focused on delivering OTA (Online Travel Agent) to the B2B (business to business which includes business to enterprise and business to agents) & B2C business

1. Opportunity Size
2. Key Points
3. Moat
4. Process
5. Management Track
6. Outlook

Opportunity Size:
1. DHRP/IBREF/CRISIL Industry Report :
a. By 2028 India Tourism is projected to reach 4540-4560 billion
b. By 2028 online travel market in India is projected to reach US$ 3335 billion (Yatra DHRP)
c. Tourism is the third largest foreign exchange earner for the country.
d. B2B Market expected to grow at 2x the overall travel market and approximately double over the next 5 years driven by:
GDP growth: IMF projects 6.8% growth in GDP for India in 2023, implying higher business activity, and related travel
GST implementation: ~10 Mn companies in India with registered GSTIN – greater scope for organized TMCs
Growth in MICE: High margin (~20%) & high demand frequency; expected growth in off-sites, dealer meets

Highly fragmented market shifting towards online & organized segment 
▪ Extremely fragmented and a large population of corporates are handled in an analog, inefficient manner with no digitization 
▪ Top 13k companies account for 28% of volume 
▪ Yatra is the largest player with 6% share of the 13,000 Mid-Large Enterprises
▪  Travel does tend to be closely linked to the growth in GDP and over the past decade, travel has been growing anywhere between  1.5x to 2x of GDP growth so the travel industry growth would be 6.0% or more




1. YATRA Business 
	a. B2B (Business to Business which includes business to enterprise and business to agents)
	b. B2C (Business to Consumer)
	c. Forex - Aiming to get Forex License
	d. Visa
	e. Activities
	f. Travel Insurance
	g. Monument/Cultural/Heritage visit

Key Points :
1. Yatra business was not doing well at B2C main reason was because of funds
2. Yatra is doing perfectly well at the corporate end and had about 813 large corporate customers and over 49,800 registered SME customers
3. Yatra ranks 3rd in India
4. Yatra has the highest tie up with Hotels & Accommodation at domestic market with about
a. 2,105,600 tie-ups, as of March 31, 2023 (Source: CRISIL Report)
5. Yatra has 29,800 agents in above 1,000 cities across India as of March 31, 2023

Business Strategy
1. Proprietary eCash loyalty program that enables travellers that book through the platform to accumulate and redeem points
2. The company currently have about 7 million eCash registered users on their platform.
3. The company first focus was to have a B2B corporate presence firstly then move to B2B – which is a very good move as they are not dependent on customer front only
4. They have forex partnership and provide forex to B2B only
5. They provide Outbound to Outbound to B2B only meaning China – Hongkong
6. Majority of the travel is Inbound to Outbound meaning – India to US or elsewhere
7. IT/ITES : Contribute to 10% topline growth
8. Corporate accounts carry a potential annual billing of about INR 813 million
9. Yatra has the largest number of hotel and accommodation tie-ups, with 2,105,600 tie-ups in March 31, 2023.
10. Currently 40% and 45% coming from B2B and about 55% to 60% coming from B2C
11. Yatra has holiday advisories and agents who helps in delivering smooth customer experience
12. Recently they have announced Yatra Prime package for travellers to assist in all ways from airport to any site.

Share of market
• India 70%
• International 30%
• Domestic market our market share would be close to between 7% and 8%
• Growing at about 20% faster rate than the industry

Risk
• Sales promotion expenses
• Customer promotions and loyalty program costs
• Payment expenses
• Overall TTV increment
• Cost cutting exercises which you they planning in the next 6 months apart from the savings and finance cost
• Credit cards would be the highest cost
• ESOP cost in quarter 3, 2024
• Cost for selling shareholders for the OFS component
• Cost knocked off against share premium

I have started making new investment into zerodha since a month. Atleast they are focusing on doing one thing and they don’t want to get our data to lend us. They are also building more useful features related to stock market than any other player out there.

Earlier I used to use Groww. I have not shifted my existing investment out of groww but for new money I am investing through zerodha.

Groww is simple and good but there intentions are not pure and also they seem to be going in wrong direction. They are not serious about being a stock broker it seems as they are not building things useful for investors like zerodha does.
Once they made the upi tab default in the stock broking app for some days.

They have enabled the loan section and also the upi(to get spending habits to lend) in their apps.
I don’t think it is a good idea to have loans and investment in one app.
In fintech, it is assumed that mutual fund investors are good borrowers. As they directly can not compete with the banks due to banks low cost of borrowing. Fintechs are into building their own proprietary tech having less dependence on CIBIL(commoditized tech as customers having high score will most probably take loan through banks) using customer spending habits, his investment habits and lot more.
It might help them to lend to NTC customers and also get good customers having less credit history(customers that have not taken any loans as they make only investments through stocks and mfs).
Any app interested to lend you like groww, will want to get to know you better, like really better. They might analyse and store your sms, emails, etc.
Hence, I think zerodha is currently the safest option if you prefer your privacy.

@Shashank_Mohan From the likes of consumer & B2B facing items such as batteries etc will benefit however not to a extent that they will keep on going forever.
There will be exhaustion and intense competition among the players (i.e. peers).