Posts in category Value Pickr
Gabriel India Ltd. – Shock free ride? (13-12-2023)
According to my estimate shared in the PPT target has been achieved long back. I am looking to optimize my exit – still holding my entire investment – will not allocate any further – Don’t intend to evaluate the stock for future prospects – looking for opportunities elsewhere as I am happy with what I got here
Techno electric engg ltd (13-12-2023)
do you know whats the nature of collaboration with Keppel? will there be a JV as a subsidiary, what will Keppel do as a partner, what are the terms?
Also , company’s projected revenue from smartmeter looks significant, I remember vaguely from the concall that it needs significant capital from company, and its more like build operate transfer(BOT), correct? so whats the economics of this stream? is there any commentary on this or have you worked any numbers on working capital and returns from this revenue?
Usha Martin- Coming out of Chaos (12-12-2023)
It may be the reason
Munger (1200 page compilation) (12-12-2023)
This contains some other resources
http://www.austinvaluecapital.com/resources.html
Buy Unlisted Shares (12-12-2023)
How much time did it take for the entire process?
Sona Comstar BLW – Direct EV Play (12-12-2023)
In my opinion main hurdle in the price movement is valuations, This 70 PE multiples for 25-30% growth company is already at a premium rate, until and unless there is some sharp jump in the Top & bottom line there may not be much movement.
Ujjivan Financial – Small Finance Bank (12-12-2023)
- Invested for long term as long as the growth story keeps delivering.
- Keep following the credit cycle to play the bottoms, recovery, and euphoria.
- Key monitorable right now is who will be the next CEO and what direction they will take. Another one is application for universal bank. Probably Equitas will apply before them. If the application is accepted by RBI it may lead to higher valuations given better return metrics it will unlock, if RBI rejects then could lead to some near term pain.
- Valuation rerating is mostly done. Probably fair valuations at 2-2.5x current PB. Market can take the sector to euphoric valuations of 3-4x current PB but I wont base an investment thesis on this.
- I would start trimming if valuations cross 3x 1yr fwd PB. At those valuations market will be underpricing risks just as it has overpriced risks post COVID.
- FY24 should end at a BVPS of 28. Apply whatever PB multiple you think is fair on it. FY25 can end at 34 BVPS.
- Talking of absolute downside for an investor. Taking COVID as an example, such a black swan could wipe out 25% of networth. So 28 could become 21 BVPS. Worse valuation during COVID was 0.7 PB maybe. So the stock could potentially go down to 14.7. This is a floor set as an investor on their downside. As the BVPS grows at 25% CAGR this floor will also keep rising. For someone who invested at 20, their investment will be above this floor in 2 years. Post that theoretically even a COVID type event could happen again and they won’t be in absolute loss ever.
- To conclude, stay vigilant at both pessimistic times and euphoric times for wealth creation & preservation opportunities. Play the cycle and earnings the best you can. No one will be able to play it perfectly. You will be rewarded for the work put in but you cannot take the stress of ups and downs in this sector, better avoid this sector.
Cosmo Films – Diffentiated player in commodity business (12-12-2023)
Does Cosmo have exposure to this entity if you know?
Thanks,
Abhishek
Cosmo Films – Diffentiated player in commodity business (12-12-2023)
Just to qoute what Jiten has said before, play when the ROE and OPM’s are at yearly low levels of 6-8% and exit at the top. Keep in mind though about the new lever which may trigger in shape of Pet Care business as the this will be huge if played properly.
@jitenp, any idea if they have any ownership in Heads Up For Tales ( Pet care business as well ) ?