Ethanol production will surely come down as Govt. will not increase ethanol rates this year – to prevent sugar prices from going up too much. Mills will first maximise sugar production and then remaining cane/ molasses will be used for ethanol – so ethanol capacity of all mills will be underutilized. Sugar will more than compensate by better margins.
Overall profits of UP based sugar companies will jump for next 2 years. After that ethanol will be used to balance excess cane production if any.
As the cyclicity of the sector is no longer going to be there it could lead to rerating of the sector. However mills focusing on cane yield & recovery and efficiency of mills will benefit rather than cos setting up ethanol plants (as margins are higher in sugar !!).

Dhampur Bio is going to be the dark horse in the sector:

1. valuation is low – as company had lower recovery due to pest attack in previous years. Recovery will be better going forward as pest problems have been solved to a large extent.
2. Has increased crushing capacity by 30% in this year(highest in industry)
3. Have set up higher margin pharma-grade sugar capacity
4. they have delayed the new ethanol plant at the right time – so no burden of debt/ interest
5. they intend to add more crushing capacity in the future as and when cane availability increases.

Mcap of company is about 1,100crs and it is going to make profits of 350crs in the next 2 years!

Hello Abhikjha and @james_kerala
The last few posts are not relevant to the Confidence Petroleum Topic. May I ask you to move it to you Portfolio thread ?
I’ve visited your portfolio thread earlier. Look forward to see your future posts there.

Of course, this post is also not on topic. So, I’ll delete this post as well

Thanks for your understanding

Praveen

Thanks James.

These are current ones which I am holding. Liquidated a few when I bought my home around 5 years ago.

Well, I was not at all organized in past and investing was just a side hustle , so have had a lot of stocks in my portfolio but slowly restructuring the portfolio and making it concentrated. I have 3 demat accounts and embarrassingly 55 stocks in total . But around 30 of them have more than 85% of the value. I have a plan to reduce the number to sub-20 by election time next year.

Here is the thread but am not good at writing at all and more often than not, all over the place . Still learning the art of investing though and hope to be better in a few years of time as I am dedicating almost 50% of my time in finding hidden gems and high conviction stocks.

Portfolio of a novice investor – Q&A: Questions & Answers / Portfolio Q&A – ValuePickr Forum

Any particular reason for barring Ola? Since Ola has emerged as market leader in 2 wheeler EV space, not supplying to them can impact the growth numbers?