Whether the debt will be increased further?
Posts in category Value Pickr
Phillips Carbon Black (28-11-2023)
@abhikjha Sourced from MCA filings of Aquapharm.
Long term investment strategy (Buy, hold but don’t forget) (28-11-2023)
My 3 year CAGR as per Value research is 16.4% and 1 year CAGR is 21.4%. I have Large cap around 57% midcap 34% and remaining small cap
Long term investment strategy (Buy, hold but don’t forget) (28-11-2023)
What i understand
In very long run, say over 10-20 yrs,
Sensex @11-12% cagr return
Large cap@10-12% cagr
@mutual fund@12-14%(10-16%)
Warren buffet@20% cagr return
So, if we have15-17% kind return, i think it is best.
What Peter lynch says
“I have heard people say they would be satisfied with 25-30% cagr return.
At that rate they would soon own half the country along with japanese and the bass brothers.In certain yrs you will make 30% but there will be other yrs when you will make 2% or perhaps lose 20%”
=What if one expect huge return?
That will make person greedy and he/ she may take irrational decisions .So never expect unlealistic profit in short
=One should expect minimum 14 to 15% CAGR return after 3 to 5 yrs of investment.
=After 3 to 5 yrs, if you dont get 14 to 15%cagr ,invest in index fund or well managed mf
Long term investment strategy (Buy, hold but don’t forget) (28-11-2023)
My perspective is that, with value investing approach, an Investor can generate better returns than SENSEX.
During 2003-04 to 2014, based on Large cap – Mid Cap, my journey shows that returns were close to 18%+ though I was not tracking the returns accurately. This is based on my gut feel as my portfolio was small and I was unable to track due to heavy workload.
After that, My returns have dropped to about 15%-16% CAGR from 2014 to 2024 (we are almost there).
From my journey, it is evident that, since GDP growth is muted in the past 10 years, my returns have also dropped. My portfolio was tilted towards Mid Cap-Small Cap more but still returns are less.
My portfolio till 2013 was purely large cap but still returns were high. You can see TCS, L&T, TechM, HDFC Bank share journey in that period which I was holding.
As per my view, an Investor is better placed to generate better Risk adjusted returns.
I may be wrong because Mirae Asset Large Cap fund has generated better returns in the past 10 years as well.
Mostly an Investor who wants to understand various businesses can continue investing in stocks directly else MF route is better. SENSEX might generate even lesser returns (May be below 11%) since it is heavily tilted towards only few stocks. (Again, I may be proved wrong here. Also, I do not invest in many companies which are part of SENSEX as their corporate governance is nothing to speak about!!).
Investing Basics – Feel free to ask the most basic questions (28-11-2023)
You need to have buy and sell strategy of your own based on your risk appetite.
If you are afraid to invest more at high valuation in your stocks, then existing holding also at risk of losing their current value. Why are you not exiting and moving to other undervalued stocks?
If you are sure current holding yield better returns then should not have doubts in adding more.
Think about it.
Typically fund managers rebalance their holding with in portfolio based on valution and future growth.
Example if have chemical stocks or IT stocks which are facing headwinds now, add more there as they will recovery later.
Phantom Digital Effects Limited (28-11-2023)
Here’s my take :
I think AI will reduce film production cost quite significantly and it is possible that in couple of years, movies will be produced completely digitally, which means no Studio requirement, no need for stunts, Art Direction, Costume Designers, Set Designers and such.
Imagine having Digitally created lead actors depending on where the movie is being released without any additional cost, for example, Indian for indian audience, white for western audience. I think these tools will make entire movie just from the novel. Now we can watch War and Peace instead of reading that enormous piece of text, i.e. Book to Movie LLMs.
Having said that, these AI tools will eventually be used by VFX engineers only, as they know the right language to prompt these LLMs accurately. AI can only give you what you ask and know, it won’t help you with what you don’t know or need to know to do your job. I cannot make VFX for marvel movie even with these technologies.
So for companies like Phantom and Basilic, it means potentially their average revenue per user might go down but can be offset by large number of such projects coz producing movies will be cheaper, so any stoy, any novel can be created into a movie.
[Disclaimer : Invested in Basilic, no position in Phantom]
Phillips Carbon Black (28-11-2023)
Thanks for sharing. Looks like a good deal. Where did you get these info?
Phillips Carbon Black (28-11-2023)
Against Rs 730 Cr of EBITDA by PCBL for FY23, Aquapharm had EBITDA of Rs 417 Cr. Also, EBITDA margins at c. 20% are higher as compared to 13-14% of PCBL.