Laurus has come out with a detailed investor presentation. FY25 seems to be the year when they will probably reap the harvest!
Link to presentation – here
Posts in category Value Pickr
Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Limited: Powering Ahead (25-11-2023)
That’s right !!! This is AMARA Transformational journey!! From FY25 onwards, many developments will be reflected in both Topline and bottomline 
Semiconductor world – CPU/GPU Wars (25-11-2023)
This throws some light on the recent history of the company:
No prior experience in the products they are currently in; parent company’s financial health is also a concern.
Company started earning revenues only from 2021, and not cooperating with credit rating agencies (a major red flag for me)
https://www.crisilratings.com/mnt/winshare/Ratings/RatingList/RatingDocs/PolymatechElectronicsPrivateLimited_March%2030,%202023_RR_316143.html
Portfolio of a novice investor (25-11-2023)
In my view, position sizing can be directly related with concentration. If you have let’s say a fixed amount per month to invest, you will have higher position size if you have lesser number of stocks compared with higher number of stocks. So, I think concentration is the key. Furthermore, with lots of stocks, it becomes difficult to track and monitor the performance.
@Mudit.Kushalvardhan , I agree with your views. If you have multiple potential multibaggers in the portfolio where you have conviction and you bought them cheap, then nothing like it. However, you can’t expect different stocks to give exact same returns as it depends on a lot of factors. If any one has even slightly higher future potential, it’s better to put all your money in that stock rather than dividing it by two.
2 x 2 framework Goofy mentioned is position size vs concentration. But I think both are interrelated and in my view concentration is the key.
Ujjawal Portfolio Updated (Betting on Long Term Compounding) (25-11-2023)
Hi Ujjawal, well balanced portfolio. Wanted to know your views on Techknowgreen since you are tracking it. At first glance, the company looks interesting for the sector it caters to, according to you what are the growth levers that would allow the company to show consistent growth and what is the CAGR you are expecting from this?
Portfolio tracking app which you like to see in market (25-11-2023)
Check “My Stocks” app. Full name: My Stocks Portfolio and Market
It has following features which I could not find in one place:
XIRR at whole/master portfolio level and multiple portfolio levels and individual stock level
The main feature is a “portfolio chart”. A bit like Trading View chart that also has all information in the chart itself.
Chart of the portfolio down to stock level and portfolio level
Chart has trackball and it’s really useful as you can quickly go to any day in the past and check portfolio/stock value
Chart has markings depicting when you bought and how much and other details
Chart shows returns cost basis, all time returns, portfolio value over time, and value change graphs
Allocation charts etc
It’s really fast and instantaneous and extremely simple
We can chose to not cloud sync it so data is safe
Android version is a bit more fuller though IOS has paid features activated in free version
Negative is, you have to feed corporate actions manually which is fine with me
I use it for basic tracking and I have tried most of them and they have not been able to replace this one for me, mainly for the chart function.
Here is a description from Play Store page:
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Track stocks and equity, funds, ETFs, currencies in the stock market, crypto, and unlisted equity
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Real time price alerts to notify you of price changes in the stock market
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Manage your stock portfolios and view performance over time, with metrics such as realized gains, unrealized gains, daily and total changes, and annualized gains
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View allocation balance of each stock holding in your overall portfolio with pie charts
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Multiple stocks portfolios support – track multiple stock markets, stock portfolios, or watchlists
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Full screen charts. Line, Area, Candlestick, Logarithmic and more. Pinch-zoom, trackball, and panning support.
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Detailed info on each stock quote including daily/yearly price ranges, market cap, P/E, EPS, Volume, Average Volume, Beta, Dividend & Yield.
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Password lock support – prevent others from seeing your stock quotes even if your phone is unlocked
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Synchronize across multiple devices
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CSV import and export to Google Drive and Email
Portfolio of a novice investor (25-11-2023)
Concentration and position sizing is important, as everybody say. But consider a thought…You hold 2 paint companies Asian paints and berger paints. You equally allocate.money to them. So whether you invest in only asian paints or only berger paints or invest in both, your money will be compunded at 25% cagr and in 10 years , it will become 10 times. So if you choose good growth companies, who can grow equally, how does it matter whether you invest in 10 companies or 20 companies, as long as your money gets multiplied in the same manner? Kindly help me.understand this, where i am going wrong…and also what is 2× 2 framework? Kindly elaborate.
NPST – Technology Provider for UPI Tech (25-11-2023)
Thanks for the detailed write up. Who are it’s competitors? Is NPCI a competitor? Also, any idea who’s got HDFC, SBI and ICICI?
Shankara Build Pro – Building Materials Organised Retail (25-11-2023)
I’ve looked at the whole thread on the company posted here. Would like to summarize here for anyone taking a fresh look
2017-2018 Phase
- Co growing well in terms of growth and margins
- Co planned to add 15 stores evey year (existing 90-100 stores)
- Being compared to D mart in India and Home depot in USA
- The story was around growing demand for building product in India
- Institutainal interest was seen and research reports were released
- stock was trading at >50x PE and people projecting growth of 30%
All these things happened when the co. has very poor cash on the balance sheet. The IPO was made to give exit to PE investors but not enough capital raised for expansion. The ROEs were less than < 15% and so the co. was not able to fund it’s growth. planned to raise 300cr via QIP and it never happened
2018-2019/20:
- Management wanted to increase sales by offering at lower prices. Margins reduced from 7% to 3%
- Tried to hive of some steel processing business
Street didn’t like the reduction in margins. Stock took a beating
2020-Current:
- Management optimized Working capital cycle
- reduced unviable stores. Current store count same as 2017
- Much better balance sheet
My thesis:
- Sales growing at >20% for coming 4-5 years. Management guiding to double sales in 4-5 years
- Net debt free baance sheet (already happened in H1 FY24)
- Improving sales mix of non steel business from ~10% to 25% by FY28. This has margin of ~9% against 3.5-4% for steel business
- Above point will lead to expansion in EBIDTA margins
- This combined with higher SSSG will improve the EBIDTA margins further
- Depreciation to stay at same level as no aggressive store expansio going on
All this would lead to a business growing at ~20% with >20% ROCE with net debt free balance sheet and opearting leverage would continue to play out. This would make for a very good investment thesis
Anti thesis:
- Slow down in building material industry growth for any reason
- Limitation to grow Same store sales beyond some value
- Concentration in South India
- Opening stores in new regions may lead to poorer return ratios (poor IRR)
- Pressure or margins
- Competition grabbing market share (Grasim has entered into B2B building material business and plans to invest 2000 cr in next 2 years, launched in Aug 2023)
Disc: Tracking but no investment at the moment. There may be inaccuries in the data/story presented here
Thanks
Praveen