As of today, it has gone up almost 50x from Covid lows and 6x in the last 14 months alone. So this correction is but natural and insignificant. You should look at the future prospects of the company to determine if it can keep up its growth and profit rates in the future? If not, there is a good chance that it will fall even further. This is a just a generic evaluation nothing specific to the company as I don’t follow it.
Posts in category Value Pickr
JEENA SIKHO- seems shady, one off? (28-05-2024)
Concall
In May 2024, the company’s financial performance showcased impressive growth. Revenue for the second half and the entire fiscal year 2024 increased by 42% and 59%, respectively. Hospital services alone saw a revenue surge of 122%. The EBITDA for FY24 grew by 102%, achieving a margin of 29%, and the profit after tax rose by 105% to INR 69 crores. By the end of FY24, the company had a net cash equivalent of INR 62 crores. Additionally, the return on equity (ROE) on ex-cash return on capital (ROC) was 36%, while the ex-ROC stood at 80%.
Looking ahead, the company is targeting a revenue of approximately INR 450 crores for the next year. There are plans to increase the bed count to 1800 by adding 500 new beds, with an ambitious goal to double this count to 3000 in the next three years and exceed 4000 beds within five years. A key focus will be on increasing occupancy levels to drive profit growth.
The operational strategy involves adopting a patient-centric approach to boost occupancy rates. The company will shift its focus from the COD business to clinic and hospital sales, aiming for better patient outcomes. To ensure quality service and retain doctors, ESOPs and incentives will be offered. Emphasis will also be placed on patient education and well-being to build trust and loyalty.
In terms of product and revenue insights, the gross margin in the medicine business stands at approximately 85%, with a net margin of 22% in the last year. The company plans to launch new OTC products to boost revenue and is targeting a profit after tax (PAT) of more than 25% next year, thanks to effective cost management and revenue growth strategies.
The company faces the challenge of increasing occupancy rates to enhance profitability but sees significant opportunities in the untapped market in India to expand its bed count and market presence. There is optimism about future growth potential, with aspirations to become the leading Ayurvedic healthcare company in India.
Positioned uniquely in the industry, the company focuses on treatment rather than wellness, leveraging its Ayurvedic expertise and quality medicines to differentiate from competitors. The expansion of the bed count will be gradual to ensure sustainable growth.
Ranvir’s Portfolio (28-05-2024)
Mayur Uniquoters -
Q4 and FY 24 concall and results highlights -
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 221 vs 193 cr
EBITDA - 42 vs 35 cr ( margins @ 19 vs 18 pc )
PAT - 32 vs 23 cr
FY 24 outcomes -
Revenues - 803 vs 776 cr
EBITDA - 159 vs 139 cr ( margins @ 20 vs 18 pc )
PAT - 122 vs 104 cr
Due to the new introduction of BIS norms for the footwear industry, the off take for Company’s artificial leather was hit. The Industry players want to liquidate the existing stocks before the regulations kick in
Q4 sales breakdown -
Exports sales - 67 cr
Domestic sales - 147 cr ( Auto - OEM - 52 cr, Replacement - 40 cr, Footwear - 48 cr, Others - 7 cr )
OEM exports are likely to see significant pickup ( 20-25 pc YoY kind of growth ) in FY 25. Company expects their export sales to grow to 2.5 times in 3 yrs time
Footwear demand is likely to be tepid for FY 25. Company is letting go of low margin business. Only going for high margin / MNC branded business
PU revenues for Q4 were @ 6.5 cr
Company has acquired land in US for warehousing purposes. Also plan to set up a manufacturing facility there - in future
As exports pick up in FY 25, margins should improve further
Avg yearly capex at 30-40 cr / yr
Full FY 24 sales breakdown -
Export Auto OEM - 168 cr
Export General - 70 cr
Domestic Auto OEM - 185
Domestic replacement - 143 cr
Domestic Footwear - 190 cr
Others - 40 cr
Company’s products have good demand for making of upholstery in Boats, Ships, Yachts etc. These applications require very high quality products as these are exposed to excessive heat and humidity. But the margins here are higher. Company is trying hard to break into this mkt
Guiding for 20 - 25 pc growth in top and bottom line for FY 25
Disc : holding, biased, not SEBI registered
Arman Financial Services Ltd (28-05-2024)
Q4FY24 results
https://x.com/radireddy/status/1795370893188686114
Neuland Laboratories Limited – Transformation towards niche APIs? (28-05-2024)
Company’s management will be participating in the following group
analyst/ investor meetings:
Date Name Location
May 31, 2024 Trinity India B&K Securities Conference Mumbai
June 3, 2024 Nuvama India Conference 2024 London
Godawari Power – Any Trackers? (28-05-2024)
Dear Members if possible please share your feedback.
I think the best way to track GPIL is keeping a tab on the iron ore prices. All the other forward integrations measures (Integrated Steel Plant) will take time to fructify. Till then we need to just focus of Iron Ore prices and capacity additions.
Ive also tried to draw a comparison between the two other iron ore miners under the old royalty scheme based on FY’24 numbers. PFA the comparative table below:
GPIL | Lloyd Metals | Sandur | |
---|---|---|---|
M.Cap | 11994 | 34863 | 8761 |
CMP | 882 | 690 | 541 |
Sales | 5455 | 6522 | 1252 |
EBITDA | 1328 | 1728 | 320 |
EBITDA % | 24.34% | 26.49% | 25.56% |
PAT | 936 | 1243 | 238 |
PAT% | 17.16% | 19.06% | 19.01% |
Net Cash | 1056 | 265 | -74 |
EV | 10938 | 34598 | 8835 |
EV/EBITDA | 8.24 | 20.02 | 27.61 |
P/E | 12.81 | 28.05 | 36.81 |
Net Blcok | 2364 | 1235 | 886 |
CWIP | 430 | 1268 | 116 |
AssetTurn | 2.31 | 5.28 | 1.41 |
RoA | 40% | 101% | 27% |
Equity+ Reserve | 4496 | 2811 | 2157 |
RoE | 21% | 44% | 11% |
IronOre Capacity (in MMT) | 3 | 10 | 3.81 |
IronOre Prod (in MMT) | 2.3 | 9.7 | 1.97 |
Production Guidance | 6 | 55 | NA |
Lease Expiry | 2057 | 2057 | 2033 |
Sandur also has manganese ore which is on a high these days.
Lloyd has crazy expansion plans.
GPIL is the cheapest company out of the three.
HUDCO Urban Development – Will it develop the investor too? (28-05-2024)
Any company in India with ROE of 30%. Can grow at 25% CAGR and has cash flows that can allow company to pay 40% dividend payout and is available at 10xFY26 earnings?
Let’s see:
HUDCO’s unique company profile allows it to function majorly differently than a conventional NBFC. HUDCO majorly lends to state governments which has a very low risk weight by RBI.
This will allow HUDCO to grow its loan book to ~3 times of current loan book without any need for any equity capital infusion this will push the ROE’s to 30% in 2 years. This is a very unique characteristic in any Indian NBFC and makes it necessary for investors to think beyond the standard norm of looking at HUDCO on price to book multiple.
As the equity capital is not required by HUDCO to grow, HUDCO can payout huge dividends around 40% of annual profits (unlikely case in any NBFC). Also this high dividend payout keeps the book value of the company lower and valuing it on price to book is not appropriate. Even the borrowers are mostly state governments and loans are asset backed causing NPA’s to be ~0.36% (lowest in industry)
Management has given strong guidance of almost doubling the loan book in 2 years with NIM expansion potential and beyond that also they for see ~ 22% CAGR. This means in 2 years HUDCO can report ~5000cr profits. (Currently ~2000 crs)
Now if we put all above facts and figures in a summary. HUDCO is a company where their loan book growth is not dependent on equity capital (book value) and the chances of NPA are almost absent (due to lending to government). Valuing it on price to book value is not logical. And must be valued like a manufacturing company with strong cash flows, ROE’s and Growth.
HUDCO with an equity capital of 14k crs can report Profits of 5000 crs. (30% ROE) by fy26. NPA’s are virtually absent so no negative surprises. Can payout 40-50% of thier earnings as dividend.
HUDCO is that rare company that is still valued at 10xFy26 despite these strong growth, ROEs and Cashflows.
Ganesh Housing- A Potential Play for Housing for All theme? (28-05-2024)
Sir company seems to do very good business good results but why market is not rerating it? Any idea or anything I am missing out? Thanks
Schneider Electric Infrastructure: A global company with advantage of a industry tailwind: (28-05-2024)
The provisions are made for anticipated higher tax outgo. They were expected the tax case to be in their favor but the recent developments have made them believe that they may not get a favorable outcome. This was clarified in the concall.
Unihealth Medical Consultancy – The Caplin of Hospitals? (28-05-2024)
Well to be frank if you look at their revenues, 60% of revenue is generated from UMC Victoria (Uganda). There is still long way to go or as matter of fact lets just say another player is able to establish himself around same regions eating up his margins. So they need to walk the talk now , awaiting to see progress over addition of 2000 beds.
Also the company that begun its operations in 2010 as Medical tourism has not scaled up or failed to do so in this vertical. The other two vertical also are generating negligible revenues, management has not given clear guidance over how are they going to scaleup other 3 verticals apart from hospitals.