Here is one interesting tweet discussing the possible reasons for the suden upmove in Tata Inv
https://x.com/iKrishnaAppala/status/1726574056936513797?s=20
Hope you find it helpful
dr.vikas
Posts in category Value Pickr
Tata Investment Corporation: Unusual discount to NAV (21-11-2023)
Best Agrolife – Think Big, Think Best! (21-11-2023)
Ignoring the obvious red flags present, such as, aggressive accounting practices, increasing receivables, headwinds in the agrochemical industry, depleting margins, recent IT raids, I would still like to look at certain positives. All views and opinions welcome.
- Management confidence in achieving 20% Ebitda margins
- Continuous launch of new products that are expected to contribute to margins in H2FY24
- Plans to explore opportunities in SE Asia, Middle East and Africa
- Acquisition of Kashmir Chemicals (to meet growing demand)
- 20 years patent for its subsidiary
- Capex for backward integration
Also, reading the concall transcript has given me a little bit of confidence in the management and a belief that the company is possibly headed on the right path.
The stock is currently in a free fall and my thesis may be wrong but I feel the business model is strong and fundamentals are expected to improve next quarter or maybe 6 months onwards.
KPIT – CASE (connected, autonomous, shared, electric) – Focused Automotive Play (21-11-2023)
At a price target of 940 we are looking at a FY’24 PE of ~50 – which is almost half the current valuation. Additionally, management is upbeat on growing revenues at 25-30% CAGR going forward. Don’t understand these absurd price targets especially when they say the price target is because they don’t have a nuanced understanding of what KPIT does 
SmallCap Hunter : Trying to find the dark horses with triggers (21-11-2023)
Not much information available in the annual report they just have listed the products/services they offer with the client location.
The financials look strong but lack of info from the managment side
Pls do let us all knwo if u can gather some insights about company and its currect product building updates
Kilpest India Ltd (21-11-2023)
^ AMR poses a significant threat to public health. Kilpest recently came out with a TRURapid test for AMR (details in the latest investor presentation). From a quick Google search it looks like Kilpest is the front runner and possibly the only India based manufacturer. Not sure how big is the market size and how complex is it to make a test like this.
Disc.: invested
What is your real return? (21-11-2023)
I was doing some calculations on the Index since the start of the century and I was surprised by the results.
From March 31 2000 to March 2023, the Nifty rose from 1528 to 17360, at CAGR of 11.1%. Prima-facie, this is a return that most investors would be content with over a long period and would appear to be a moderate compounder of wealth.
However, it is important to factor in the real rate of return. While from a macro-economic perspective, the real return only factors in inflation, I wanted to capture the effect of currency depreciation as well.
Raw data:
Indexed data:
Graph:
This brings me to a thoughts / questions.
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Is India really growing? 1.4% returns compounded over a 23 year period is abysmal. How do we define growth? Excluding inflation, where is growth taking place? At a macro level, has the standard of living improved? Has productivity improved? Has value creation increased?
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Compounding, while magically accelerating returns over time, also accelerates expenses over time. We should be aware of the real return. Do passive investors (most people) invest for capital preservation or capital creation? Why is there a push indexing investments?
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While I am personally diversified across asset classes, no other class matches the returns of equity. With this, given the fact that equity is the only instrument that can preserve purchasing power, does it make any sense to diversify, in a meaningful way, across asset classes in India. Fixed income returns with this approach will likely be consistently negative while gold / bitcoin can be used as a hedge calamity.
My portfolio updates and investment journey (21-11-2023)
Portfolio update – November 2023
Hi all, thanks for reading up on my investment journey. Many of you liked my content and specially write-up on Sandhar and Mapmyindia. Thanks again.
Asset allocation:
I have now reached my target asset allocation with now non-equity (cash/bond/REIT) at 51% and Equity at 49%. Given that my non-equity portfolio provides a monthly steady income for my household expenses I am unlikely to increase non-equity allocation in near future. However, I continue to find very attractive opportunities in bond markets with yields in 10-12% range for AA rated bonds.
Equity allocation:
My number of stocks have remained largely same around 20. However, there is substantial change within it. Some new entries – Nuvama, 360 One, Nippon Life, Divgi Toqrue, Deepak Fertilizers, medplus, Indiamart etc. Barring Nuvama everything else is small and in ramp-up mode. I exited: Tips Industries, ICICI Lombard, XPRO, Birla Precision, Salzer electronics, Pitti engineering, and many of the R&D stocks. I don’t have any R&D stock at this point.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.
My top 5 allocations at 48% and top 10 are 78%. So concentration factor has increased mainly due to sharp rise in Rategain since last update.
Highlight of this quarter:
Nuvama Wealth Management (6% allocation): Thanks to Neil Bahal (Negen Capital) who talked about this special situation about 6-7 months back in his one of the presentations. When Nuvama listed in September 2023, I did my research and found it to be in 20-25 PE. While I found an interview of its CEO where he mentioned they shall hire 1000 more relationship managers (RMs) over next 3 to 4 years, which basically meant doubling RMs.
Neil’s interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8mPTrlYTIM
I ramped up my position very fast at an average price of 2381. This has already resulted in 36% returns in the last 2 months.
I was positively surprised by results from Rategain, Paytm, and PB Fintech.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.
SKM Egg Products – thinking out of the shell (21-11-2023)
After Re-appearance of Bird Flu in US Egg prices have doubled in 2 weeks.
Eggs US – Price – Chart – Historical Data – News.
Kilpest India Ltd (21-11-2023)
Looks like the name change has gone into effect in some places but not everywhere — screener shows “3D Blackbio…” but the BSE website still shows Kilpest
Gensol Engineering – A play on Energy Transition (Solar Energy & EV) (21-11-2023)
Thanks Akash and Pratik